Are Brazilian corn farmers overconfident about prices?

This paper aims to identify signs of overconfidence among corn producers in south and central-west Brazil. Over the period from October to November 2008, farmers were chosen to answer questions regarding their knowledge of futures markets and price expectations. A large part of subjects responded they do not trade futures contracts because they do not have enough information on the subject. The results show respondents were miscalibrated when estimating directly-stated and the indirectly-stated expected prices. In addition, for certain respondents, subjective variance for corn proves to be significantly less than the market variance. Finally, the paper concludes that the overconfidence effect can partially explain the low use of futures markets by Brazilian corn producers.overconfidence, subjective probability, probability elicitation, Institutional and Behavioral Economics,

Interleukin‐10 responses from acute exercise in healthy subjects: A systematic review

Purpose: Interleukin 10 (IL‐10) is a cytokine that plays a critical role with potent anti‐ inflammatory properties when produced during exercise, limiting host immune response to pathogens and preventing tissue damage. The purpose of this systematic review was to assess the response of IL‐10 after acute exercise session in healthy adults. Methods: Databases of Ovid Medline (1978–2016), CINAHL (1998–2016), EMBASE (2003–2016), SportDiscus (1990–2016), and Web of Science library (1990–2016) were carefully screened. Clinical trials comparing exercise types in healthy individuals were included for pooled analysis. The trials of exercise were methodologically appraised by PEDro Scale. Results: Twelve randomized controlled and crossover trials containing 176 individuals were identified for inclusion. The Kruskal‐Wallis test showed no significant differences between type of exercise and the corresponding values in IL‐ 10 [X2(4) = 2.878; p = 0.449]. The duration of exercise was significantly correlated with increase in IL‐10 changes (Pearson’s r = 1.00, 95%CI: 0.015–0.042, p < 0.0001) indicating that 48% of the variation in IL‐10 levels can be explained by the duration of the exercise performed. In addition, despite a linear increase, we did not find a significant correlation with the intensity of exercise and IL‐10 changes (Pearson’s r = 0.218, 95%CI: −0.554–0.042, p < 0.035). Conclusion: Overall, the duration of the exercise is the single most important factor determining the magnitude of the exercise‐induced increase of plasma IL‐10

Identification of heavy-flavour jets with the CMS detector in pp collisions at 13 TeV

Many measurements and searches for physics beyond the standard model at the LHC rely on the efficient identification of heavy-flavour jets, i.e. jets originating from bottom or charm quarks. In this paper, the discriminating variables and the algorithms used for heavy-flavour jet identification during the first years of operation of the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, are presented. Heavy-flavour jet identification algorithms have been improved compared to those used previously at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV. For jets with transverse momenta in the range expected in simulated $\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}}$ events, these new developments result in an efficiency of 68% for the correct identification of a b jet for a probability of 1% of misidentifying a light-flavour jet. The improvement in relative efficiency at this misidentification probability is about 15%, compared to previous CMS algorithms. In addition, for the first time algorithms have been developed to identify jets containing two b hadrons in Lorentz-boosted event topologies, as well as to tag c jets. The large data sample recorded in 2016 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV has also allowed the development of new methods to measure the efficiency and misidentification probability of heavy-flavour jet identification algorithms. The heavy-flavour jet identification efficiency is measured with a precision of a few per cent at moderate jet transverse momenta (between 30 and 300 GeV) and about 5% at the highest jet transverse momenta (between 500 and 1000 GeV)

Evidence for the Higgs boson decay to a bottom quark–antiquark pair

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Evenness mediates the global relationship between forest productivity and richness

1. Biodiversity is an important component of natural ecosystems, with higher species richness often correlating with an increase in ecosystem productivity. Yet, this relationship varies substantially across environments, typically becoming less pronounced at high levels of species richness. However, species richness alone cannot reflect all important properties of a community, including community evenness, which may mediate the relationship between biodiversity and productivity. If the evenness of a community correlates negatively with richness across forests globally, then a greater number of species may not always increase overall diversity and productivity of the system. Theoretical work and local empirical studies have shown that the effect of evenness on ecosystem functioning may be especially strong at high richness levels, yet the consistency of this remains untested at a global scale. 2. Here, we used a dataset of forests from across the globe, which includes composition, biomass accumulation and net primary productivity, to explore whether productivity correlates with community evenness and richness in a way that evenness appears to buffer the effect of richness. Specifically, we evaluated whether low levels of evenness in speciose communities correlate with the attenuation of the richness–productivity relationship. 3. We found that tree species richness and evenness are negatively correlated across forests globally, with highly speciose forests typically comprising a few dominant and many rare species. Furthermore, we found that the correlation between diversity and productivity changes with evenness: at low richness, uneven communities are more productive, while at high richness, even communities are more productive. 4. Synthesis. Collectively, these results demonstrate that evenness is an integral component of the relationship between biodiversity and productivity, and that the attenuating effect of richness on forest productivity might be partly explained by low evenness in speciose communities. Productivity generally increases with species richness, until reduced evenness limits the overall increases in community diversity. Our research suggests that evenness is a fundamental component of biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships, and is of critical importance for guiding conservation and sustainable ecosystem management decisions

Search for heavy resonances decaying to a top quark and a bottom quark in the lepton+jets final state in proton–proton collisions at 13 TeV

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Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to &lt;90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], &gt;300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of &lt;15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P&lt;0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P&lt;0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio