Bayesian Inference in Regime-Switching ARMA Models with Absorbing States: The Dynamics of the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate Under Structural Breaks

One goal of this paper is to develop an efficient Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating an ARMA model with a regime-switching mean, based on a multi-move sampler. Unlike the existing algorithm of Billio et al. (1999) based on a single-move sampler, our algorithm can achieve reasonably fast convergence to the posterior distribution even when the latent regime indicator variable is highly persistent or when there exist absorbing states. Another goal is to appropriately investigate the dynamics of the latent ex-ante real interest rate (EARR) in the presence of structural breaks, by employing the econometric tool developed. We argue Garcia and Perron's (1996) conclusion that the EARR rate is a constant subject to occasional jumps may be sample-specific. For an extended sample that includes recent data, Garcia and Perron's (1996) AR(2) model of EPRR may be misspecified, and we show that excluding the theory-implied moving-average terms may understate the persistence of the observed ex-post real interest rate (EPRR) dynamics. Our empirical results suggest that, even though we rule out the possibility of a unit root in the EARR, it may be more persistent and volatile than has been documented in some of the literature including Garcia and Perron (1996)

The `Pile-up Problem' in Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Real GDP: Classical and Bayesian Perspectives

In the case of a flat prior, a conventional wisdom is that Bayesian inference may not be very different from classical inference, as the likelihood dominates the posterior density. This paper shows that there are cases in which this conventional wisdom does not apply. An ARMA model of real GDP growth estimated by Perron and Wada (2009) is an example. While their maximum likelihood estimation of the model implies that real GDP may be a trend stationary process, Bayesian estimation of the same model implies that most of the variations in real GDP can be explained by the stochastic trend component, as in Nelson and Plosser (1982) and Morley et al. (2003). We show such dramatically different results stem from the differences in how the nuisance parameters are handled between the two approaches, especially when the parameter estimate of interest is dependent upon the estimates of the nuisance parameters for small samples. For the maximum likelihood approach, as the number of the nuisance parameters increases, we have higher probability that the moving-average root may be estimated to be one even when its true value is less than one, spuriously indicating that the data is `over-differenced.' However, the Bayesian approach is relatively free from this pile-up problem, as the posterior distribution is not dependent upon the nuisance parameters

Hypofractionated High-Dose Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy (60 Gy at 2.5 Gy per Fraction) for Recurrent Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Case Report

A patient with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) developed synchronous bone metastasis with metachronous relapses to the bone and renal fossa. The primary lesion was initially removed surgically, and the metastatic bone lesions and locally recurrent tumours were treated by a high-fractional dose and high-total-dose intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT, 60 Gy at 2.5 Gy per fraction) without significant side effects. All the grossly relapsed tumors underwent complete remission (CR) within a short time after IMRT. To date, CR has been maintained for more than two years. This case study reports the successful treatment of radioresistant RCC using a new scheme that involves a fractionation regimen with a high precision radiotherapy

SERPINE2 Polymorphisms and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

A number of genome-wide linkage analyses have identified the 2q33.3-2q37.2 region as most likely to contain the genes that contribute to the susceptibility to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It was hypothesized that the SERPINE2 gene, which is one of the genes located at the 2q33.3-2q37.2 region, may act as a low-penetrance susceptibility gene for COPD. To test this hypothesis, the association of four SERPINE2 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs16865421A>G, rs7583463A>C, rs729631C>G, and rs6734100C>G) with the risk of COPD was investigated in a case-control study of 311 COPD patients and 386 controls. The SNP rs16865421 was associated with a significantly decreased risk of COPD in a dominant model for the polymorphic allele (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.45-0.97, P=0.03). In haplotype analysis, the GACC haplotype carrying the polymorphic allele at the rs16865421 was associated with a significantly decreased risk of COPD when compared to the AACC haplotype (adjusted OR=0.58, 95% CI=0.38-0.89, P=0.01), and this effect was evident in younger individuals (adjusted OR=0.30, 95% CI=0.14-0.64, P=0.002). This study suggests that the SERPINE2 gene contributes to the susceptibility to COPD

Cytosolic calcium regulates cytoplasmic accumulation of TDP-43 through Calpain-A and Importin alpha 3

Cytoplasmic accumulation of TDP-43 in motor neurons is the most prominent pathological feature in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). A feedback cycle between nucleocytoplasmic transport (NCT) defect and TDP-43 aggregation was shown to contribute to accumulation of TDP-43 in the cytoplasm. However, little is known about cellular factors that can control the activity of NCT, thereby affecting TDP-43 accumulation in the cytoplasm. Here, we identified via FRAP and optogenetics cytosolic calcium as a key cellular factor controlling NCT of TDP-43. Dynamic and reversible changes in TDP-43 localization were observed in Drosophila sensory neurons during development. Genetic and immunohistochemical analyses identified the cytosolic calcium-Calpain-A-Importin α3 pathway as a regulatory mechanism underlying NCT of TDP-43. In C9orf72 ALS fly models, upregulation of the pathway activity by increasing cytosolic calcium reduced cytoplasmic accumulation of TDP-43 and mitigated behavioral defects. Together, these results suggest the calcium-Calpain-A-Importin α3 pathway as a potential therapeutic target of ALS. © Park et al.1

Identifying novel genetic variants for brain amyloid deposition: a genome-wide association study in the Korean population

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a number of genetic variants for Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, most GWAS were conducted in individuals of European ancestry, and non-European populations are still underrepresented in genetic discovery efforts. Here, we performed GWAS to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with amyloid β (Aβ) positivity using a large sample of Korean population. Methods: One thousand four hundred seventy-four participants of Korean ancestry were recruited from multicenters in South Korea. Discovery dataset consisted of 1190 participants (383 with cognitively unimpaired [CU], 330 with amnestic mild cognitive impairment [aMCI], and 477 with AD dementia [ADD]) and replication dataset consisted of 284 participants (46 with CU, 167 with aMCI, and 71 with ADD). GWAS was conducted to identify SNPs associated with Aβ positivity (measured by amyloid positron emission tomography). Aβ prediction models were developed using the identified SNPs. Furthermore, bioinformatics analysis was conducted for the identified SNPs. Results: In addition to APOE, we identified nine SNPs on chromosome 7, which were associated with a decreased risk of Aβ positivity at a genome-wide suggestive level. Of these nine SNPs, four novel SNPs (rs73375428, rs2903923, rs3828947, and rs11983537) were associated with a decreased risk of Aβ positivity (p < 0.05) in the replication dataset. In a meta-analysis, two SNPs (rs7337542 and rs2903923) reached a genome-wide significant level (p < 5.0 × 10-8). Prediction performance for Aβ positivity increased when rs73375428 were incorporated (area under curve = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.74-0.76) in addition to clinical factors and APOE genotype. Cis-eQTL analysis demonstrated that the rs73375428 was associated with decreased expression levels of FGL2 in the brain. Conclusion: The novel genetic variants associated with FGL2 decreased risk of Aβ positivity in the Korean population. This finding may provide a candidate therapeutic target for AD, highlighting the importance of genetic studies in diverse populations

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI