A Model-data Comparison for a Multi-model Ensemble of Early Eocene Atmosphere-ocean Simulations: EoMIP

The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in a large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble of previously published model results, making up EoMIP – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project – and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and sea surface temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and model–data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at high CO2, there is good agreement between models and data for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading are the dominant cause for the different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud feedbacks. The CO2 level which would give optimal early Eocene model–data agreement, based on those models which have carried out simulations with more than one CO2 level, is in the range of 2500 ppmv to 6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on proxy estimates of atmospheric CO2 and temperature during this time period will allow a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating warm climates. If it is the case that a model which gives a good simulation of the Eocene will also give a good simulation of the future, then such an assessment could be used to produce metrics for weighting future climate predictions

A model-model and data-model comparison for the early Eocene hydrological cycle

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and <i>P</i> − <i>E</i> distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. <br><br> We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO₂, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO₂ level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (d<i>P</i>∕d<i>T</i>) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. <br><br> A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO₂ or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO₂ are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates

Earliest Triassic microbialites in the South China Block and other areas; controls on their growth and distribution

Earliest Triassic microbialites (ETMs) and inorganic carbonate crystal fans formed after the end-Permian mass extinction (ca. 251.4 Ma) within the basal Triassic Hindeodus parvus conodont zone. ETMs are distinguished from rarer, and more regional, subsequent Triassic microbialites. Large differences in ETMs between northern and southern areas of the South China block suggest geographic provinces, and ETMs are most abundant throughout the equatorial Tethys Ocean with further geographic variation. ETMs occur in shallow-marine shelves in a superanoxic stratified ocean and form the only widespread Phanerozoic microbialites with structures similar to those of the Cambro-Ordovician, and briefly after the latest Ordovician, Late Silurian and Late Devonian extinctions. ETMs disappeared long before the mid-Triassic biotic recovery, but it is not clear why, if they are interpreted as disaster taxa. In general, ETM occurrence suggests that microbially mediated calcification occurred where upwelled carbonate-rich anoxic waters mixed with warm aerated surface waters, forming regional dysoxia, so that extreme carbonate supersaturation and dysoxic conditions were both required for their growth. Long-term oceanic and atmospheric changes may have contributed to a trigger for ETM formation. In equatorial western Pangea, the earliest microbialites are late Early Triassic, but it is possible that ETMs could exist in western Pangea, if well-preserved earliest Triassic facies are discovered in future work

Математична залежність точності верстатних пристроїв від їх ступеня гнучкості

Підвищення конкурентоспроможності продукції, що виробляється невеликими підприємствами, забезпечується шляхом скорочення витрат на проектування та виготовлення технологічної оснастки для свердлильно- фрезерно-розточувальних операцій. Це стає можливим за рахунок використання гнучких верстатних пристроїв (ВП), що мають можливість переналагодження у заданому діапазоні розмірів заготовки шляхом регулювання установлювально-затискних елементів

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Dynamic anoxic ferruginous conditions during the end-Permian mass extinction and recovery

The end-Permian mass extinction, ~252 million years ago, is notable for a complex recovery period of ~5 Myr. Widespread euxinic (anoxic and sulfidic) oceanic conditions have been proposed as both extinction mechanism and explanation for the protracted recovery period, yet the vertical distribution of anoxia in the water column and its temporal dynamics through this time period are poorly constrained. Here we utilize Fe–S–C systematics integrated with palaeontological observations to reconstruct a complete ocean redox history for the Late Permian to Early Triassic, using multiple sections across a shelf-to-basin transect on the Arabian Margin (Neo-Tethyan Ocean). In contrast to elsewhere, we show that anoxic non-sulfidic (ferruginous), rather than euxinic, conditions were prevalent in the Neo-Tethys. The Arabian Margin record demonstrates the repeated expansion of ferruginous conditions with the distal slope being the focus of anoxia at these times, as well as short-lived episodes of oxia that supported diverse biota

Age offsets among different biogenic and lithogenic components of sediment cores revealed by numerical modeling

For modeled sediment cores of the open ocean, a method for predicting simultaneously the ages of four different solid sediment compounds with respect to their depositional year onto the sediment surface is presented. The simulation of time-dependent age distribution in the sediment mixed layer and the eventually accumulating sediment is a prerequisite of a proper data assimilation of marine sediment core data into predictive climate models. Through such a data assimilation, marine paleoclimate data could then be efficiently used in order to optimally determine adjustable model parameters. The age simulation is based on a passive tracer transport method taking into account varying vertical advection rates within the sediment top layers, chemical pore water reactions, and bioturbation. It turns out that different weight fractions of the modeled sediment have different ages in one horizontal geometric depth-in-core level depending on the particle rain onto the sediment and the reactivity of the material within the sediment pore waters. For simultaneous consideration of paleoclimatic tracers associated within one and the same weight fraction, e.g., for calcium carbonate, tracers such as foraminiferal δ13C, and calcium carbonate weight percentages, this may not be critical. However, for simultaneous consideration of calcium carbonate and opal weight percentages, the age difference in the observed weight fractions may have to be corrected. The age offset between CaCO3 and opal depends critically on the sediment accumulation rate. Low-accumulation sites are more strongly affected than high-accumulation sites

Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Systems 76 (2009): 113-133, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.010.Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of ~1000 14C measurements spanning more than a decade (1983- 1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PP, specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 gC m-2d-2) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomass-normalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140°W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison six years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill.This research was supported by a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Agency Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry program (NNG06GA03G), as well as by numerous other grants to the various participating investigator

Ocean carbon cycling during the past 130,000 years - a pilot study on inverse paleoclimate record modelling

What role did changes in marine carbon cycle processes and calcareous organisms play in glacial-interglacial variation in atmospheric pCO2? In order to answer this question, we explore results from an ocean biogeochemical general circulation model. We attempt to systematically reconcile model results with time dependent sediment core data from the observations. For this purpose, we fit simulated sensitivities of oceanic tracer concentrations to changes in governing carbon cycle parameters to measured sediment core data. We assume that the time variation of the governing carbon cycle parameters follows the general pattern of the glacial-interglacial deuterium anomaly. Our analysis provides an independent estimate of a maximum mean sea surface temperature drawdown of about 5◦C and a maximum outgassing of the land biosphere by about 430 PgC at the last glacial maximum as compared to preindustrial times. The overall fit of modelled paleoclimate tracers to observations, however, remains quite weak, indicating the potential of more detailed modelling studies to fully exploit the information stored in the paleo-climatic archive. This study confirms the hypothesis that a decline in ocean temperature and a more efficient biological carbon pump in combination with changes in ocean circulation are the key factors for explaining the glacial CO2 drawdown. The analysis suggests that potential changes in the export rain ratio POC:CaCO3 may not have a substantial imprint on the paleo-climatic archive. The use of the last glacial as an inverted analogue to potential ocean acidification impacts thus may be quite limited. A strong decrease in CaCO3 export production could potentially contribute to the glacial CO2 decline in the atmosphere, but remains hypothetical

Ocean carbon cycling during the past 130 000 years – a pilot study on inverse palaeoclimate record modelling

What role did changes in marine carbon cycle processes and calcareous organisms play in glacial-interglacial variation in atmospheric pCO2? In order to answer this question, we explore results from an ocean biogeochemical general circulation model. We attempt to systematically reconcile model results with time dependent sediment core data from the observations. For this purpose, we fit simulated sensitivities of oceanic tracer concentrations to changes in governing carbon cycle parameters to measured sediment core data. We assume that the time variation of the governing carbon cycle parameters follows the general pattern of the glacial-interglacial deuterium anomaly. Our analysis provides an independent estimate of a maximum mean sea surface temperature drawdown of about 5◦C and a maximum outgassing of the land biosphere by about 430 PgC at the last glacial maximum as compared to preindustrial times. The overall fit of modelled paleoclimate tracers to observations, however, remains quite weak, indicating the potential of more detailed modelling studies to fully exploit the information stored in the paleo-climatic archive. This study confirms the hypothesis that a decline in ocean temperature and a more efficient biological carbon pump in combination with changes in ocean circulation are the key factors for explaining the glacial CO2 drawdown. The analysis suggests that potential changes in the export rain ratio POC:CaCO3 may not have a substantial imprint on the paleo-climatic archive. The use of the last glacial as an inverted analogue to potential ocean acidification impacts thus may be quite limited. A strong decrease in CaCO3 export production could potentially contribute to the glacial CO2 decline in the atmosphere, but remains hypothetical