Transparent and feasible uncertainty assessment adds value to applied ecosystem services modeling

We introduce a special issue that aims to simultaneously motivate interest in uncertainty assessment (UA) and reduce the barriers practitioners face in conducting it. The issue, “Demonstrating transparent, feasible, and useful uncertainty assessment in ecosystem services modeling,” responds to findings from a 2016 workshop of academics and practitioners that identified challenges and potential solutions to enhance the practice of uncertainty assessment in the ES community. Participants identified that one important gap was the lack of a compelling set of cases showing that UA can be feasibly conducted at varying levels of sophistication, and that such assessment can usefully inform decision-relevant modeling conclusions. This article orients the reader to the 11 other articles that comprise the special issue, and which span multiple methods and application domains, all with an explicit consideration of uncertainty. We highlight the value of UA demonstrated in the articles, including changing decisions, facilitating transparency, and clarifying the nature of evidence. We conclude by suggesting ways to promote further adoption of uncertainty analysis in ecosystem service assessments. These include: Easing the analytic workflows involved in UA while guarding against rote analyses, applying multiple models to the same problem, and learning about the conduct and value of UA from other disciplines

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets

Relevance of the eastern African coastal forest for early hominin biogeography

The influence of climate change on hominin evolution is much debated. Two issues hamper our under- standing of this process: the limited hominin fossil record, and incomplete knowledge about hominin spatial occupation of Africa. Here, we analyze the presently known hominin fossil distribution pattern and explore the potential geographic distribution of hominins between ~4.5 and ~2.5 Ma. We focus on assessing the relevance of the Coastal Forest of Eastern Africa (CFEA) along the Indian Ocean as a core area for early hominin evolution. Based on biogeographic-phylogeographic data we propose the coastal refuge hypoth- esis: the CFEA provided a refugium for early hominins in periods of variable climate and strong seasonality during eccentricity maxima. From this refuge, evolved species could disperse inland (e.g. to rift basins) via vegetated humid corridors, whenever onset of stable climate periods with low seasonality during eccen- tricity minima allowed expansion out of the coastal enclave. We develop a conceptual model in time and space, comparing predictions with climatic and hominin fossil records. The results imply that: 1) between ~4.5 and 3 Ma, ongoing (mostly anagenetic) hominin evolution occurred in the CFEA, punctuated by inland dispersal events at ~4.4, 4.2, 3.8, 3.5, and 3.2 Ma; 2) before ~3 Ma, the Afar Basin was a (sub)core area often connected to and relatively similar to the CFEA, while other inland areas were more or less marginal for early hominin habitation; 3) after ~3 Ma, Northern Hemisphere Glaciation exerted strong influence by causing latitudinal contraction of the CFEA, leading to habitat fragmentation, isolation of hominin populations and possible cladogenetic evolution. A major challenge for the coastal refuge model is the fact that at present, no (hominin) fossils are known from the CFEA. We consider how this can be explained, and possibly overcome with targeted search efforts. Furthermore we discuss how the model can be tested, e.g. with molecular phylogeography approaches, and used to predict new hominin fossil locations. With this study, we hope to contribute a fresh perspective to the climate-evolution debate, emphasizing the role of climatic stability, length of dry season and vegetation cover to facilitate connectivity between hominin core and marginal habitats

Empirical validation of the InVEST water yield ecosystem service model at a national scale

A variety of tools have emerged with the goal of mapping the current delivery of ecosystem services and quantifying the impact of environmental changes. An important and often overlooked question is how accurate the outputs of these models are in relation to empirical observations. In this paper we validate a hydrological ecosystem service model (InVEST Water Yield Model) using widely available data. We modelled annual water yield in 22 UK catchments with widely varying land cover, population and geology, and compared model outputs with gauged river flow data from the UK National River Flow Archive. Values for input parameters were selected from existing literature to reflect conditions in the UK and were subjected to sensitivity analyses. We also compared model performance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data sourced from global- and UK-scale datasets. We then tested the transferability of the results within the UK by additional validation in a further 20 catchments. Whilst the model performed only moderately with global-scale data (linear regression of modelled total water yield against empirical data; slope = 0.763, intercept = 54.45, R2 = 0.963) with wide variation in performance between catchments, the model performed much better when using UK-scale input data, with closer fit to the observed data (slope = 1.07, intercept = 3.07, R2 = 0.990). With UK data the majority of catchments showed less than 10% difference between measured and modelled water yield but there was a minor but consistent overestimate per hectare (86 m3/ha/year). Additional validation on a further 20 UK catchments was similarly robust, indicating that these results are transferable within the UK. These results suggest that relatively simple models can give accurate measures of ecosystem services. However, the choice of input data is critical and there is a need for further validation in other parts of the worl

Agricultural policies exacerbate honeybee pollination service supply-demand mismatches across Europe

Declines in insect pollinators across Europe have raised concerns about the supply of pollination services to agriculture. Simultaneously, EU agricultural and biofuel policies have encouraged substantial growth in the cultivated area of insect pollinated crops across the continent. Using data from 41 European countries, this study demonstrates that the recommended number of honeybees required to provide crop pollination across Europe has risen 4.9 times as fast as honeybee stocks between 2005 and 2010. Consequently, honeybee stocks were insufficient to supply >90% of demands in 22 countries studied. These findings raise concerns about the capacity of many countries to cope with major losses of wild pollinators and highlight numerous critical gaps in current understanding of pollination service supplies and demands, pointing to a pressing need for further research into this issue

Techno-Ecological Synergy: A Framework for Sustainable Engineering

Even though the importance of ecosystems in sustaining all human activities is well-known, methods for sustainable engineering fail to fully account for this role of nature. Most methods account for the demand for ecosystem services, but almost none account for the supply. Incomplete accounting of the very foundation of human well-being can result in perverse outcomes from decisions meant to enhance sustainability and lost opportunities for benefiting from the ability of nature to satisfy human needs in an economically and environmentally superior manner. This paper develops a framework for understanding and designing synergies between technological and ecological systems to encourage greater harmony between human activities and nature. This framework considers technological systems ranging from individual processes to supply chains and life cycles, along with corresponding ecological systems at multiple spatial scales ranging from local to global. The demand for specific ecosystem services is determined from information about emissions and resource use, while the supply is obtained from information about the capacity of relevant ecosystems. Metrics calculate the sustainability of individual ecosystem services at multiple spatial scales and help define necessary but not sufficient conditions for local and global sustainability. Efforts to reduce ecological overshoot encourage enhancement of life cycle efficiency, development of industrial symbiosis, innovative designs and policies, and ecological restoration, thus combining the best features of many existing methods. Opportunities for theoretical and applied research to make this framework practical are also discussed

Exploring subtle land use and land cover changes: a framework for future landscape studies

UMR AMAP, équipe 3International audienceLand cover and land use changes can have a wide variety of ecological effects, including significant impacts on soils and water quality. In rural areas, even subtle changes in farming practices can affect landscape features and functions, and consequently the environment. Fine-scale analyses have to be performed to better understand the land cover change processes. At the same time, models of land cover change have to be developed in order to anticipate where changes are more likely to occur next. Such predictive information is essential to propose and implement sustainable and efficient environmental policies. Future landscape studies can provide a framework to forecast how land use and land cover changes is likely to react differently to subtle changes. This paper proposes a four step framework to forecast landscape futures at fine scales by coupling scenarios and landscape modelling approaches. This methodology has been tested on two contrasting agricultural landscapes located in the United States and France, to identify possible landscape changes based on forecasting and backcasting agriculture intensification scenarios. Both examples demonstrate that relatively subtle land cover and land use changes can have a large impact on future landscapes. Results highlight how such subtle changes have to be considered in term of quantity, location, and frequency of land use and land cover to appropriately assess environmental impacts on water pollution (France) and soil erosion (US). The results highlight opportunities for improvements in landscape modelling

Метод интегрирования дифференциальных уравнений динамики электрических машин с вращающимся ротором

Для исследования переходных процессов в электротехнических системах, содержащих статические электромагнитные устройства, включенные в сложные электрические схемы, разработан программный комплекс Colo, функционирующий на основе магнитоэлектрических схем замещения в матричной форме. Главная матрица комплекса Colo содержит коэффициенты при искомых токах или магнитных потоках. Моделирование динамических процессов в электрических машинах с вращающимся ротором связано с интегрированием дифференциальных уравнений, в которые входят произведения искомых величин, поэтому непосредственно эти уравнения не могут решаться в программном комплексе Colo