Simultaneous inference on treatment effects in survival studies with factorial designs: Simultaneous Inference on Treatment Effects in Survival Studies with Factorial Designs

A clinical trial with a 2 × 2 factorial design involves randomization of subjects to treatment A or A¯ and, within each group, further randomization to treatment B or B¯. Under this design, one can assess the effects of treatments A and B on a clinical endpoint using all patients. One may additionally compare treatment A, treatment B, or combination therapy AB to A¯B¯. With multiple comparisons, however, it may be desirable to control the overall type I error, especially for regulatory purposes. Because the subjects overlap in the comparisons, the test statistics are generally correlated. By accounting for the correlations, one can achieve higher statistical power compared to the conventional Bonferroni correction. Herein, we derive the correlation between any two (stratified or unstratified) log-rank statistics for a 2 × 2 factorial design with a survival time endpoint, such that the overall type I error for multiple treatment comparisons can be properly controlled. In addition, we allow for adjustment of prognostic factors in the treatment comparisons and conduct simultaneous inference on the effect sizes. We use simulation studies to show that the proposed methods perform well in realistic situations. We then provide an application to a recently completed randomized controlled clinical trial on alcohol dependence. Finally, we discuss extensions of our approach to other factorial designs and multiple endpoints

Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models

In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java

The Accuracy of Clinical Staging of Stage I-IIIa Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer : An Analysis Based on Individual Participant Data

BACKGROUND: Clinical staging of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) helps determine the prognosis and treatment of patients; few data exist on the accuracy of clinical staging and the impact on treatment and survival of patients. We assessed whether participant or trial characteristics were associated with clinical staging accuracy as well as impact on survival. METHODS: We used individual participant data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), supplied for a meta-analysis of preoperative chemotherapy (+/- radiotherapy) vs surgery alone (+/- radiotherapy) in NSCLC. We assessed agreement between clinical TNM (cTNM) stage at randomization and pathologic TNM (pTNM) stage, for participants in the control group. RESULT: Results are based on 698 patients who received surgery alone (+/- radiotherapy) with data for cTNM and pTNM stage. Forty-six percent of cases were cTNM stage I, 23% were cTNM stage II, and 31% were cTNM stage IIIa. cTNM stage disagreed with pTNM stage in 48% of cases, with 34% clinically understaged and 14% clinically overstaged. Agreement was not associated with age (P = .12), sex (P = .62), histology (P = .82), staging method (P = .32), or year of randomization (P = .98). Poorer survival in understaged patients was explained by the underlying pTNM stage. Clinical staging failed to detect T4 disease in 10% of cases and misclassified nodal disease in 38%. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates suboptimal agreement between clinical and pathologic staging. Discrepancies between clinical and pathologic T and N staging could have led to different treatment decisions in 10% and 38% of cases, respectively. There is therefore a need for further research into improving staging accuracy for patients with stage I-IIIa NSCLC.Peer reviewe

Deprived children or deprived neighbourhoods? A public health approach to the investigation of links between deprivation and injury risk with specific reference to child road safety in Devon County, UK

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, injuries from road traffic collisions are a rapidly growing problem in terms of morbidity and mortality. The UK has amongst the worst records in Europe with regard to child pedestrian safety. A traditional view holds that resources should be directed towards training child pedestrians. In order to reduce socio-economic differentials in child pedestrian casualty rates it is suggested that these should be directed at deprived children. This paper seeks to question whether analysis of extant routinely collected data supports this view. METHODS: Routine administrative data on road collisions has been used. A deprivation measure has been assigned to the location where a collision was reported, and the home postcode of the casualty. Aggregate data was analysed using a number of epidemiological models, concentrating on the Generalised Linear Mixed Model. RESULTS: This study confirms evidence suggesting a link between increasing deprivation and increasing casualty involvement of child pedestrians. However, suggestions are made that it may be necessary to control for the urban nature of an area where collisions occur. More importantly, the question is raised as to whether the casualty rate is more closely associated with deprivation measures of the ward in which the collision occurred than with the deprivation measures of the home address of the child. CONCLUSION: Conclusions have to be drawn with great caution. Limitations in the utility of the officially collected data are apparent, but the implication is that the deprivation measures of the area around the collision is a more important determinant of socio-economic differentials in casualty rates than the deprivation measures of the casualties' home location. Whilst this result must be treated with caution, if confirmed by individual level case-controlled studies this would have a strong implication for the most appropriate interventions

Air pollution exposure during critical time periods in gestation and alterations in cord blood lymphocyte distribution: a cohort of livebirths

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Toxic exposures have been shown to influence maturation of the immune system during gestation. This study investigates the association between cord blood lymphocyte proportions and maternal exposure to air pollution during each gestational month.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cord blood was analyzed using a FACSort flow cytometer to determine proportions of T lymphocytes (CD3⁺cells and their subsets, CD4⁺and CD8⁺), B lymphocytes (CD19⁺) and natural killer (NK) cells. Ambient air concentrations of 12 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and particulate matter < 2.5 micrometer in diameter (PM_2.5) were measured using fixed site monitors. Arithmetic means of these pollutants, calculated for each gestational month, were used as exposure metrics. Data on covariates were obtained from medical records and questionnaires. Multivariable linear regression models were fitted to estimate associations between monthly PAH or PM_2.5and cord blood lymphocytes, adjusting for year of birth and district of residence and, in further models, gestational season and number of prior live births.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The adjusted models show significant associations between PAHs or PM_2.5during early gestation and increases in CD3⁺and CD4⁺lymphocytes percentages and decreases in CD19⁺and NK cell percentages in cord blood. In contrast, exposures during late gestation were associated with decreases in CD3⁺and CD4⁺fractions and increases in CD19⁺and NK cell fractions. There was no significant association between alterations in lymphocyte distribution and air pollution exposure during the mid gestation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>PAHs and PM_2.5in ambient air may influence fetal immune development via shifts in cord blood lymphocytes distributions. Associations appear to differ by exposure in early versus late gestation.</p

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Global Peak in Atmospheric Radiocarbon Provides a Potential Definition for the Onset of the Anthropocene Epoch in 1965

Anthropogenic activity is now recognised as having profoundly and permanently altered the Earth system, suggesting we have entered a human-dominated geological epoch, the ‘Anthropocene’. To formally define the onset of the Anthropocene, a synchronous global signature within geological-forming materials is required. Here we report a series of precisely-dated tree-ring records from Campbell Island (Southern Ocean) that capture peak atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) resulting from Northern Hemisphere-dominated thermonuclear bomb tests during the 1950s and 1960s. The only alien tree on the island, a Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), allows us to seasonally-resolve Southern Hemisphere atmospheric 14C, demonstrating the ‘bomb peak’ in this remote and pristine location occurred in the last-quarter of 1965 (October-December), coincident with the broader changes associated with the post-World War II ‘Great Acceleration’ in industrial capacity and consumption. Our findings provide a precisely-resolved potential Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) or ‘golden spike’, marking the onset of the Anthropocene Epoch

Performance and Operation of the CMS Electromagnetic Calorimeter

The operation and general performance of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter using cosmic-ray muons are described. These muons were recorded after the closure of the CMS detector in late 2008. The calorimeter is made of lead tungstate crystals and the overall status of the 75848 channels corresponding to the barrel and endcap detectors is reported. The stability of crucial operational parameters, such as high voltage, temperature and electronic noise, is summarised and the performance of the light monitoring system is presented

Elevated Plasma Von Willebrand Factor and Propeptide Levels in Malawian Children with Malaria

In children with malaria plasma VWF and propeptide levels are markedly elevated in both cerebral and mild paediatric malaria, with levels matching disease severity, and these normalize upon recovery. High levels of both markers also occur in retinopathy-negative 'cerebral malaria' cases, many of whom are thought to be suffering from diseases other than malaria, indicating that further studies of these markers will be required to determine their sensitivity and specificity