Event dependence in U.S. executions

Since 1976, the United States has seen over 1,400 judicial executions, and these have been highly concentrated in only a few states and counties. The number of executions across counties appears to fit a stretched distribution. These distributions are typically reflective of self-reinforcing processes where the probability of observing an event increases for each previous event. To examine these processes, we employ two-pronged empirical strategy. First, we utilize bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to determine whether the pattern of executions reflect a stretched distribution, and confirm that they do. Second, we test for event-dependence using the Conditional Frailty Model. Our tests estimate the monthly hazard of an execution in a given county, accounting for the number of previous executions, homicides, poverty, and population demographics. Controlling for other factors, we find that the number of prior executions in a county increases the probability of the next execution and accelerates its timing. Once a jurisdiction goes down a given path, the path becomes self-reinforcing, causing the counties to separate out into those never executing (the vast majority of counties) and those which use the punishment frequently. This finding is of great legal and normative concern, and ultimately, may not be consistent with the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution

Development, test and comparison of two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis(MCDA) models: A case of healthcare infrastructure location

When planning a new development, location decisions have always been a major issue. This paper examines and compares two modelling methods used to inform a healthcare infrastructure location decision. Two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) models were developed to support the optimisation of this decision-making process, within a National Health Service (NHS) organisation, in the UK. The proposed model structure is based on seven criteria (environment and safety, size, total cost, accessibility, design, risks and population profile) and 28 sub-criteria. First, Evidential Reasoning (ER) was used to solve the model, then, the processes and results were compared with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It was established that using ER or AHP led to the same solutions. However, the scores between the alternatives were significantly different; which impacted the stakeholders‟ decision-making. As the processes differ according to the model selected, ER or AHP, it is relevant to establish the practical and managerial implications for selecting one model or the other and providing evidence of which models best fit this specific environment. To achieve an optimum operational decision it is argued, in this study, that the most transparent and robust framework is achieved by merging ER process with the pair-wise comparison, an element of AHP. This paper makes a defined contribution by developing and examining the use of MCDA models, to rationalise new healthcare infrastructure location, with the proposed model to be used for future decision. Moreover, very few studies comparing different MCDA techniques were found, this study results enable practitioners to consider even further the modelling characteristics to ensure the development of a reliable framework, even if this means applying a hybrid approach

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland consensus guidelines in emergency colorectal surgery

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Review and editing: S.R. Brown, Professor of Surgery, Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Sheffield, UK. Email [email protected]. Patient summary: R.G. Arnott, Retired Professor, Patient Liaison Group, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK. Email [email protected]. Delphi review: C.P. Macklin. BMedSci BM BS FRCS DM, Consultant Colorectal Surgeon, Mid Yorkshire Hospitals, UK. Email [email protected] reviewedPublisher PD

Title page Regulation of Inflammatory Pain by Inhibition of Fatty Acid Amide Hydrolase (FAAH)

Abstract Although cannabinoids are efficacious in laboratory animal models of inflammatory pain, their established cannabimimetic actions diminish enthusiasm for their therapeutic development. Conversely, fatty acid amide hydrolase (FAAH), the chief catabolic enzyme regulating the endogenous cannabinoid N-arachidonoylethanolamine (anandamide), has emerged as an attractive target to treat pain and other conditions. Here, we tested WIN55,212-2, a cannabinoid receptor agonist, as well as genetic deletion or pharmacological inhibition of FAAH in the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) mouse model of inflammatory pain. WIN55,212 significantly reduced edema and hotplate hyperalgesia caused by LPS infusion into the hind paws, though the mice also displayed analgesia and other CNS effects. FAAH (-/-) mice exhibited reduced paw edema and hyperalgesia in this model, without apparent cannabimimetic effects. Transgenic mice expressing FAAH exclusively on neurons continued to display the anti-edematous, but not the anti-hyperalgesic, phenotype. The CB 2 receptor antagonist, SR144528, blocked this non-neuronal, anti-inflammatory phenotype, and the CB 1 receptor antagonist, rimonabant, blocked the anti-hyperalgesic phenotype. The FAAH inhibitor, URB597 attenuated the development of LPS-induced paw edema and reversed LPS-induced hyperalgesia through respective CB 2 and CB 1 receptor mechanisms of action. However, the TRPV1 receptor antagonist, capsazepine, did not affect either the anti-hyperalgesic or antiedematous effects of URB597. Finally, URB597 attenuated levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1β and TNF-α in LPS-treated paws. These findings demonstrate that simultaneous elevations in non-neuronal and neuronal endocannabinoid signaling are possible through inhibition of a single enzymatic target, thereby offering a potentially powerful strategy to treat chronic inflammatory pain syndromes that operate at multiple levels of anatomical integration

The screen test 1915–1930:how stars were born

This article examines the emergence of the screen test as a cultural phenomenon during the silent era in the US and Europe and its role in the development of the star system. The lore that grew up around the screen test almost from its inception held out the possibility for members of the public to cross a threshold into the rarefied world of celebrity. The screen test itself is situated in the liminal space not only between audience and actor, but also between fiction and non-fiction, Europe and Hollywood, the silent era and the talkies, and the public and private spheres. In order to trace the ways in which the screen test as such was narrativized and conceptualized in its foundational stages, this article will analyse accounts from Hollywood and European fan magazines of the silent era, including articles, short fiction, and early cinema apocrypha. The article culminates in a discussion of the film Prix de Beauté / Beauty Prize (Augusto Genina, 1930), which starred Louise Brooks, herself a transnational film icon whose film career spanned the divide between Hollywood and Europe. The film’s final scene, in which a beauty queen is shot dead by her jealous husband as she watches a screen test of herself, has been invoked by a number of film scholars as an allegory of the work performed by cinema, which preserves and disseminates the image of the star far beyond the actor’s physical presence. Speaking to historical conditions of star-making while also capturing its resonance in cultural mythology, the conclusion of Prix de Beauté allows us to consider the origins and functions of screen test discourse itself

It Takes Two

Theories of conflict emphasize dyadic interaction, yet existing empirical studies of civil war focus largely on state attributes and pay little attention to nonstate antagonists. We recast civil war in a dyadic perspective, and consider how nonstate actor attributes and their relationship to the state influence conflict dynamics. We argue that strong rebels, who pose a military challenge to the government, are likely to lead to short wars and concessions. Conflicts where rebels seem weak can become prolonged if rebels can operate in the periphery so as to defy a government victory yet are not strong enough to extract concessions. Conflicts should be shorter when potential insurgents can rely on alternative political means to violence. We examine these hypotheses in a dyadic analysis of civil war duration and outcomes, using new data on nonstate actors and conflict attributes, finding support for many of our conjectures. </jats:p

Fosas desaparecidas: La producción del conocimiento histórico en un mundo de ausencias

On May 1st, 2014 members of the historical memory team from the Aranzadi Sciences Society arrived in Oropesa de Toledo. The objective: to locate two mass graves containing the remains of Republicans killed in the weeks after Franco’s troops entered the town in 1936. Despite evidence regarding the mass graves’ existence, they were never found. Drawing on empirical, ethnographic data collected in the town of Oropesa in the months following this “unsuccessful” exhumation, this paper narrates the curious story of two graves that have “gone missing.” It considers the intellectual labor exerted to produce historical knowledge in a context where municipal archives remain inaccessible and family histories are marked by silence and dis-information. The author suggests that the absence of information –the dearth of historical, narrative evidence– regarding the lives of the defeated makes the production of historical and forensic knowledge a complicated affair. It tracks how kin-based knowledge and scarce archival documents are gathered and animated in order to make exhumations possible. Considering the forms of knowledge that are needed in order to engage techno-scientific expertise in meaningful ways, the paper attends to the important role that kin-based knowledge and seemingly “unimportant” documents play in processes of historical enunciation.El 1 de mayo de 2014, los miembros del equipo forense de la Sociedad de Ciencias Aranzadi llegaron a Oropesa de Toledo. El objetivo: localizar dos fosas comunes que contenían los restos de republicanos asesinados en las semanas posteriores a la llegada de las tropas de Franco en 1936. A pesar de la evidencia que apuntaba a la existencia de las dos fosas comunes, nunca se encontraron. Utilizando los datos empíricos y etnográficos recogidos en Oropesa en los meses posteriores a esta exhumación “fallida”, este trabajo narra la curiosa historia de dos tumbas que han “desaparecido”. El texto considera el trabajo intelectual llevado a cabo para poder producir el conocimiento histórico en un contexto en donde los archivos municipales siguen siendo inaccesibles y las historias familiares están marcadas por el silencio y la desinformación. La autora sugiere que la ausencia de información vuelve complicada la producción del conocimiento histórico y forense. Teniendo en cuenta las formas de conocimiento que se necesitan para movilizar los conocimientos tecno-científicos de manera significativa, el ensayo atiende a la importante función que el conocimiento familiar y los documentos que no parecen ser “no importantes” juegan en los procesos de la enunciación histórica