North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction: underlying science and an evaluation of statistical models

Statistically-based seasonal hurricane outlooks for the North Atlantic were initiated by Colorado State University (CSU) in 1984, and have been issued every year since that time by CSU. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and the UK-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) have the next longest records (1998-present) of continuous outlooks. This chapter describes how these three forecasts have evolved with time, and documents the approaches, the environmental fields, and the lead times which underpin the models’ operation. Some of the environmental parameters used in early seasonal outlooks are no longer employed, but new predictive fields have been found which appear to be more important for seasonal hurricane prediction. An assessment is made of the deterministic skill of the seasonal hurricane outlooks issued in real-time by CSU, NOAA, and TSR between 2003 and 2014. All methods show moderate-to-good skill for early August outlooks (prior to the most active portion of the hurricane season), low-to-moderate skill for outlooks issued in early June, and lesser skill for outlooks issued in early April. Overall, the TSR model has the most skillful predictions of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), while NOAA has the best named storm predictions issued in early August

Parenting and the Adjustment of Children Born to Gay Fathers Through Surrogacy

Findings are presented on a study of 40 gay father families created through surrogacy and a comparison group of 55 lesbian mother families created through donor insemination with a child aged 3–9 years. Standardized interview, observational and questionnaire measures of stigmatization, quality of parent–child relationships, and children's adjustment were administered to parents, children, and teachers. Children in both family types showed high levels of adjustment with lower levels of children's internalizing problems reported by gay fathers. Irrespective of family type, children whose parents perceived greater stigmatization and children who experienced higher levels of negative parenting showed higher levels of parent-reported externalizing problems. The findings contribute to theoretical understanding of the role of family structure and family processes in child adjustment.The research was supported by a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award (097857/Z/11/Z)

Pharmacists in Pharmacovigilance: Can Increased Diagnostic Opportunity in Community Settings Translate to Better Vigilance?

The pharmacy profession has undergone substantial change over the last two to three decades. Whilst medicine supply still remains a central function, pharmacist’s roles and responsibilities have become more clinic and patient focused. In the community (primary care), pharmacists have become important providers of healthcare as Western healthcare policy advocates patient self-care. This has resulted in pharmacists taking on greater responsibility in managing minor illness and the delivery of public health interventions. These roles require pharmacists to more fully use their clinical skills, and often involve diagnosis and therapeutic management. Community pharmacists are now, more than ever before, in a position to identify, record and report medication safety incidents. However, current research suggests that diagnostic ability of community pharmacists is questionable and they infrequently report to local or national schemes. The aim of this paper is to highlight current practice and suggest ways in which community pharmacy can more fully contribute to patient safety

Helping students to self-care and enhance their health-promotion skills.

Nurses have a public health role, requiring them to promote the health of individuals and communities, and to engage at a political and policy level to improve population health. There is also a professional expectation that nurses will model healthy behaviours and take responsibility for their personal health and wellbeing. However, studies have indicated that undergraduate nurses find the academic and practice elements of their nursing programmes stressful. To manage their stress many use coping behaviours that negatively impact on their health and wellbeing and may influence their ability and willingness to effectively support health promotion in practice. It is widely recognised that environments influence health outcomes and personal health behaviours. This article addresses some of the structural causes of student nurse stress and highlights a recent educational initiative at a UK university that aims to equip student nurses with the practical skills required to engage in health promotion and thereby provide benefits for service users and student nurses alike

Structural and biochemical characterization of the exopolysaccharide deacetylase Agd3 required for Aspergillus fumigatus biofilm formation

The exopolysaccharide galactosaminogalactan (GAG) is an important virulence factor of the fungal pathogen Aspergillus fumigatus. Deletion of a gene encoding a putative deacetylase, Agd3, leads to defects in GAG deacetylation, biofilm formation, and virulence. Here, we show that Agd3 deacetylates GAG in a metal-dependent manner, and is the founding member of carbohydrate esterase family CE18. The active site is formed by four catalytic motifs that are essential for activity. The structure of Agd3 includes an elongated substrate-binding cleft formed by a carbohydrate binding module (CBM) that is the founding member of CBM family 87. Agd3 homologues are encoded in previously unidentified putative bacterial exopolysaccharide biosynthetic operons and in other fungal genomes. The exopolysaccharide galactosaminogalactan (GAG) is an important virulence factor of the fungal pathogen Aspergillus fumigatus. Here, the authors study an A. fumigatus enzyme that deacetylates GAG in a metal-dependent manner and constitutes a founding member of a new carbohydrate esterase family.Bio-organic Synthesi

Transcription of toll-like receptors 2, 3, 4 and 9, FoxP3 and Th17 cytokines in a susceptible experimental model of canine Leishmania infantum infection

Canine leishmaniosis (CanL) due to Leishmania infantum is a chronic zoonotic systemic disease resulting from complex interactions between protozoa and the canine immune system. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are essential components of the innate immune system and facilitate the early detection of many infections. However, the role of TLRs in CanL remains unknown and information describing TLR transcription during infection is extremely scarce. The aim of this research project was to investigate the impact of L. infantum infection on canine TLR transcription using a susceptible model. The objectives of this study were to evaluate transcription of TLRs 2, 3, 4 and 9 by means of quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in skin, spleen, lymph node and liver in the presence or absence of experimental L. infantum infection in Beagle dogs. These findings were compared with clinical and serological data, parasite densities in infected tissues and transcription of IL-17, IL-22 and FoxP3 in different tissues in non-infected dogs (n = 10), and at six months (n = 24) and 15 months (n = 7) post infection. Results revealed significant down regulation of transcription with disease progression in lymph node samples for TLR3, TLR4, TLR9, IL-17, IL-22 and FoxP3. In spleen samples, significant down regulation of transcription was seen in TLR4 and IL-22 when both infected groups were compared with controls. In liver samples, down regulation of transcription was evident with disease progression for IL-22. In the skin, upregulation was seen only for TLR9 and FoxP3 in the early stages of infection. Subtle changes or down regulation in TLR transcription, Th17 cytokines and FoxP3 are indicative of the silent establishment of infection that Leishmania is renowned for. These observations provide new insights about TLR transcription, Th17 cytokines and Foxp3 in the liver, spleen, lymph node and skin in CanL and highlight possible markers of disease susceptibility in this model

Lattice Boltzmann simulations of soft matter systems

This article concerns numerical simulations of the dynamics of particles immersed in a continuum solvent. As prototypical systems, we consider colloidal dispersions of spherical particles and solutions of uncharged polymers. After a brief explanation of the concept of hydrodynamic interactions, we give a general overview over the various simulation methods that have been developed to cope with the resulting computational problems. We then focus on the approach we have developed, which couples a system of particles to a lattice Boltzmann model representing the solvent degrees of freedom. The standard D3Q19 lattice Boltzmann model is derived and explained in depth, followed by a detailed discussion of complementary methods for the coupling of solvent and solute. Colloidal dispersions are best described in terms of extended particles with appropriate boundary conditions at the surfaces, while particles with internal degrees of freedom are easier to simulate as an arrangement of mass points with frictional coupling to the solvent. In both cases, particular care has been taken to simulate thermal fluctuations in a consistent way. The usefulness of this methodology is illustrated by studies from our own research, where the dynamics of colloidal and polymeric systems has been investigated in both equilibrium and nonequilibrium situations.Comment: Review article, submitted to Advances in Polymer Science. 16 figures, 76 page

Search for CP violation in D+→ϕπ+ and D+s→K0Sπ+ decays

A search for CP violation in D + → ϕπ + decays is performed using data collected in 2011 by the LHCb experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1 at a centre of mass energy of 7 TeV. The CP -violating asymmetry is measured to be (−0.04 ± 0.14 ± 0.14)% for candidates with K − K + mass within 20 MeV/c 2 of the ϕ meson mass. A search for a CP -violating asymmetry that varies across the ϕ mass region of the D + → K − K + π + Dalitz plot is also performed, and no evidence for CP violation is found. In addition, the CP asymmetry in the D+s→K0Sπ+ decay is measured to be (0.61 ± 0.83 ± 0.14)%

Study of Bc+B_c^+ decays to the K+K−π+K^+K^-\pi^+ final state and evidence for the decay Bc+→χc0π+B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}\pi^+

A study of $B_c^+\to K^+K^-\pi^+$ decays is performed for the first time using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 $\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment in $pp$ collisions at centre-of-mass energies of $7$ and $8$ TeV. Evidence for the decay $B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}(\to K^+K^-)\pi^+$ is reported with a significance of 4.0 standard deviations, resulting in the measurement of $\frac{\sigma(B_c^+)}{\sigma(B^+)}\times\mathcal{B}(B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}\pi^+)$ to be $(9.8^{+3.4}_{-3.0}(\mathrm{stat})\pm 0.8(\mathrm{syst}))\times 10^{-6}$. Here $\mathcal{B}$ denotes a branching fraction while $\sigma(B_c^+)$ and $\sigma(B^+)$ are the production cross-sections for $B_c^+$ and $B^+$ mesons. An indication of $\bar b c$ weak annihilation is found for the region $m(K^-\pi^+)<1.834\mathrm{\,Ge\kern -0.1em V\!/}c^2$, with a significance of 2.4 standard deviations.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2016-022.html, link to supplemental material inserted in the reference