Spectral Simplicity of Apparent Complexity, Part I: The Nondiagonalizable Metadynamics of Prediction

Virtually all questions that one can ask about the behavioral and structural complexity of a stochastic process reduce to a linear algebraic framing of a time evolution governed by an appropriate hidden-Markov process generator. Each type of question---correlation, predictability, predictive cost, observer synchronization, and the like---induces a distinct generator class. Answers are then functions of the class-appropriate transition dynamic. Unfortunately, these dynamics are generically nonnormal, nondiagonalizable, singular, and so on. Tractably analyzing these dynamics relies on adapting the recently introduced meromorphic functional calculus, which specifies the spectral decomposition of functions of nondiagonalizable linear operators, even when the function poles and zeros coincide with the operator's spectrum. Along the way, we establish special properties of the projection operators that demonstrate how they capture the organization of subprocesses within a complex system. Circumventing the spurious infinities of alternative calculi, this leads in the sequel, Part II, to the first closed-form expressions for complexity measures, couched either in terms of the Drazin inverse (negative-one power of a singular operator) or the eigenvalues and projection operators of the appropriate transition dynamic.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables; current version always at http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/sdscpt1.ht

Evaluation of a nudge intervention providing simple feedback to clinicians of the consequence of radiation exposure on demand for computed tomography: a controlled study

Computerised tomography (CT) is readily available in developed countries. As one of the side-effects includes an increased risk of cancer, interventions that may encourage more judicious use of CT scans are important. Behavioural economics theory includes the use of nudges that aim to help more informed decisions to be made, although these have been rarely used in hospitals to date. We aimed to evaluate the impact of a simple educational message appended to the CT scan report on subsequent numbers of CT scans completed using a controlled interrupted time series design based in two teaching hospitals in X. The intervention was the addition of a non-directional educational message on the risk of ionising radiation to all CT scan reports. There was a statistically significant reduction in the number of CT scans requested in the intervention hospital compared to the control hospital (-4.6%, 95% confidence intervals -7.4 to -1.7, p = 0.002) in the 12 months after the intervention was implemented. We conclude that a simple, non-directional nudge intervention has the capacity to modify clinician use of CT scans. This approach is cheap, and has potential in helping support doctors make informed decisions

Possible origins of macroscopic left-right asymmetry in organisms

I consider the microscopic mechanisms by which a particular left-right (L/R) asymmetry is generated at the organism level from the microscopic handedness of cytoskeletal molecules. In light of a fundamental symmetry principle, the typical pattern-formation mechanisms of diffusion plus regulation cannot implement the "right-hand rule"; at the microscopic level, the cell's cytoskeleton of chiral filaments seems always to be involved, usually in collective states driven by polymerization forces or molecular motors. It seems particularly easy for handedness to emerge in a shear or rotation in the background of an effectively two-dimensional system, such as the cell membrane or a layer of cells, as this requires no pre-existing axis apart from the layer normal. I detail a scenario involving actin/myosin layers in snails and in C. elegans, and also one about the microtubule layer in plant cells. I also survey the other examples that I am aware of, such as the emergence of handedness such as the emergence of handedness in neurons, in eukaryote cell motility, and in non-flagellated bacteria.Comment: 42 pages, 6 figures, resubmitted to J. Stat. Phys. special issue. Major rewrite, rearranged sections/subsections, new Fig 3 + 6, new physics in Sec 2.4 and 3.4.1, added Sec 5 and subsections of Sec

Dynamics of earthquake nucleation process represented by the Burridge-Knopoff model

Dynamics of earthquake nucleation process is studied on the basis of the one-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff (BK) model obeying the rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) law. We investigate the properties of the model at each stage of the nucleation process, including the quasi-static initial phase, the unstable acceleration phase and the high-speed rupture phase or a mainshock. Two kinds of nucleation lengths L_sc and L_c are identified and investigated. The nucleation length L_sc and the initial phase exist only for a weak frictional instability regime, while the nucleation length L_c and the acceleration phase exist for both weak and strong instability regimes. Both L_sc and L_c are found to be determined by the model parameters, the frictional weakening parameter and the elastic stiffness parameter, hardly dependent on the size of an ensuing mainshock. The sliding velocity is extremely slow in the initial phase up to L_sc, of order the pulling speed of the plate, while it reaches a detectable level at a certain stage of the acceleration phase. The continuum limits of the results are discussed. The continuum limit of the BK model lies in the weak frictional instability regime so that a mature homogeneous fault under the RSF law always accompanies the quasi-static nucleation process. Duration times of each stage of the nucleation process are examined. The relation to the elastic continuum model and implications to real seismicity are discussed.Comment: Title changed. Changes mainly in abstract and in section 1. To appear in European Physical Journal

Optimal Path Planning for Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles to Defeat Radar Tracking

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76140/1/AIAA-14303-218.pd

Canvass: a crowd-sourced, natural-product screening library for exploring biological space

NCATS thanks Dingyin Tao for assistance with compound characterization. This research was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health (NIH). R.B.A. acknowledges support from NSF (CHE-1665145) and NIH (GM126221). M.K.B. acknowledges support from NIH (5R01GM110131). N.Z.B. thanks support from NIGMS, NIH (R01GM114061). J.K.C. acknowledges support from NSF (CHE-1665331). J.C. acknowledges support from the Fogarty International Center, NIH (TW009872). P.A.C. acknowledges support from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), NIH (R01 CA158275), and the NIH/National Institute of Aging (P01 AG012411). N.K.G. acknowledges support from NSF (CHE-1464898). B.C.G. thanks the support of NSF (RUI: 213569), the Camille and Henry Dreyfus Foundation, and the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Foundation. C.C.H. thanks the start-up funds from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography for support. J.N.J. acknowledges support from NIH (GM 063557, GM 084333). A.D.K. thanks the support from NCI, NIH (P01CA125066). D.G.I.K. acknowledges support from the National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health (1 R01 AT008088) and the Fogarty International Center, NIH (U01 TW00313), and gratefully acknowledges courtesies extended by the Government of Madagascar (Ministere des Eaux et Forets). O.K. thanks NIH (R01GM071779) for financial support. T.J.M. acknowledges support from NIH (GM116952). S.M. acknowledges support from NIH (DA045884-01, DA046487-01, AA026949-01), the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs through the Peer Reviewed Medical Research Program (W81XWH-17-1-0256), and NCI, NIH, through a Cancer Center Support Grant (P30 CA008748). K.N.M. thanks the California Department of Food and Agriculture Pierce's Disease and Glassy Winged Sharpshooter Board for support. B.T.M. thanks Michael Mullowney for his contribution in the isolation, elucidation, and submission of the compounds in this work. P.N. acknowledges support from NIH (R01 GM111476). L.E.O. acknowledges support from NIH (R01-HL25854, R01-GM30859, R0-1-NS-12389). L.E.B., J.K.S., and J.A.P. thank the NIH (R35 GM-118173, R24 GM-111625) for research support. F.R. thanks the American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC) for financial support. I.S. thanks the University of Oklahoma Startup funds for support. J.T.S. acknowledges support from ACS PRF (53767-ND1) and NSF (CHE-1414298), and thanks Drs. Kellan N. Lamb and Michael J. Di Maso for their synthetic contribution. B.S. acknowledges support from NIH (CA78747, CA106150, GM114353, GM115575). W.S. acknowledges support from NIGMS, NIH (R15GM116032, P30 GM103450), and thanks the University of Arkansas for startup funds and the Arkansas Biosciences Institute (ABI) for seed money. C.R.J.S. acknowledges support from NIH (R01GM121656). D.S.T. thanks the support of NIH (T32 CA062948-Gudas) and PhRMA Foundation to A.L.V., NIH (P41 GM076267) to D.S.T., and CCSG NIH (P30 CA008748) to C.B. Thompson. R.E.T. acknowledges support from NIGMS, NIH (GM129465). R.J.T. thanks the American Cancer Society (RSG-12-253-01-CDD) and NSF (CHE1361173) for support. D.A.V. thanks the Camille and Henry Dreyfus Foundation, the National Science Foundation (CHE-0353662, CHE-1005253, and CHE-1725142), the Beckman Foundation, the Sherman Fairchild Foundation, the John Stauffer Charitable Trust, and the Christian Scholars Foundation for support. J.W. acknowledges support from the American Cancer Society through the Research Scholar Grant (RSG-13-011-01-CDD). W.M.W.acknowledges support from NIGMS, NIH (GM119426), and NSF (CHE1755698). A.Z. acknowledges support from NSF (CHE-1463819). (Intramural Research Program of the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health (NIH); CHE-1665145 - NSF; CHE-1665331 - NSF; CHE-1464898 - NSF; RUI: 213569 - NSF; CHE-1414298 - NSF; CHE1361173 - NSF; CHE1755698 - NSF; CHE-1463819 - NSF; GM126221 - NIH; 5R01GM110131 - NIH; GM 063557 - NIH; GM 084333 - NIH; R01GM071779 - NIH; GM116952 - NIH; DA045884-01 - NIH; DA046487-01 - NIH; AA026949-01 - NIH; R01 GM111476 - NIH; R01-HL25854 - NIH; R01-GM30859 - NIH; R0-1-NS-12389 - NIH; R35 GM-118173 - NIH; R24 GM-111625 - NIH; CA78747 - NIH; CA106150 - NIH; GM114353 - NIH; GM115575 - NIH; R01GM121656 - NIH; T32 CA062948-Gudas - NIH; P41 GM076267 - NIH; R01GM114061 - NIGMS, NIH; R15GM116032 - NIGMS, NIH; P30 GM103450 - NIGMS, NIH; GM129465 - NIGMS, NIH; GM119426 - NIGMS, NIH; TW009872 - Fogarty International Center, NIH; U01 TW00313 - Fogarty International Center, NIH; R01 CA158275 - National Cancer Institute (NCI), NIH; P01 AG012411 - NIH/National Institute of Aging; Camille and Henry Dreyfus Foundation; Arnold and Mabel Beckman Foundation; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; P01CA125066 - NCI, NIH; 1 R01 AT008088 - National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health; W81XWH-17-1-0256 - Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs through the Peer Reviewed Medical Research Program; P30 CA008748 - NCI, NIH, through a Cancer Center Support Grant; California Department of Food and Agriculture Pierce's Disease and Glassy Winged Sharpshooter Board; American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC); University of Oklahoma Startup funds; 53767-ND1 - ACS PRF; PhRMA Foundation; P30 CA008748 - CCSG NIH; RSG-12-253-01-CDD - American Cancer Society; RSG-13-011-01-CDD - American Cancer Society; CHE-0353662 - National Science Foundation; CHE-1005253 - National Science Foundation; CHE-1725142 - National Science Foundation; Beckman Foundation; Sherman Fairchild Foundation; John Stauffer Charitable Trust; Christian Scholars Foundation)Published versionSupporting documentatio

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.Comment: 24 pages plus author list (36 pages total), 23 figures, 1 table, submitted to European Physical Journal

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research