Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Four in every ten infants in Northwest Ethiopia exposed to sub-optimal breastfeeding practice.

BackgroundImproper breastfeeding practices significantly impair the health, development, and survival of infants, children, and mothers. A Breastfeeding Performance Index (BPI) is a composite index to describe overall maternal breastfeeding practice with infants under six months of age. To date, there is insufficient evidence on breastfeeding performance index and its associated factors in Ethiopia.ObjectiveTo assess the breastfeeding performance index and its associated factors in Sekela District, Northwest Ethiopia, 2019.MethodsA community-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 605 randomly selected mothers having infants aged 6 to 12 months from April 02, 2019 to May 13, 2019. Data was collected using a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify independent predictors of BPI.ResultsTwo hundred forty-six (40.7%) of mothers had low BPI scores. Mothers who lived alone (AOR = 3.18; 95%CI: 1.15, 8.82), mothers who were merchants (AOR = 2.75; 95%CI:1.05, 7.15), attended three antenatal care (ANC) visits (AOR = 0.42; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.82), attended four antenatal care visits (AOR = 0.35; 95%CI: 0.12, 0.82), received postnatal care (PNC) (AOR = 0.35; 95%CI: 0.19, 0.64), had poor knowledge on breastfeeding (AOR = 3.19;95%CI: 1.14, 8.89) or negative attitudes towards breastfeeding (AOR = 2.70;95%CI: 1.13, 6.45), were independent predictors of low BPI scores.ConclusionsThe prevalence of sub-optimal breastfeeding practice in northwest Ethiopia was very high. A mother living alone, maternal occupation, ANC visits, PNC, maternal breastfeeding knowledge, and attitude towards breastfeeding were independent predictors of low BPI scores. Nutrition promotion should be implemented by considering the above significant factors to decrease inappropriate breastfeeding practice in Northwest Ethiopia

The recovery rate from severe acute malnutrition among under-five years of children remains low in sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND:Globally, Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) has been reduced by only 11% over the past 20 years and continues to be a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. So far, in Sub-Saharan Africa, several primary studies have been conducted on recovery rate and determinants of recovery from SAM in under-five children. However, comprehensive reviews that would have a shred of strong evidence for designing interventions are lacking. So, this review and meta-analysis was conducted to bridge this gap. METHODS:A systematic review of observational studies published in the years between 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2018 was conducted following the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) statement. Two reviewers have been searched and extracted data from CINAHL (EBSCO), MEDLINE (via Ovid), Emcare, PubMed databases, and Google scholar. Articles' quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale by two independent reviewers, and only studies with fair to good quality were included in the final analysis. The review presented the pooled recovery rate from SAM and an odds ratio of risk factors affecting recovery rate after checking for heterogeneity and publication bias. The review has been registered in PROSPERO with protocol number CRD42019122085. RESULT:Children with SAM from 54 primary studies (n = 140,148) were included. A pooled rate of recovery was 71.2% (95% CI: 68.5-73.8; I2 = 98.9%). Children who received routine medication (Pooled Odds ratio (POR):1.85;95% CI: 1.49-2.29; I2 = 0.0%), older age (POR: 1.99;95% CI: 1.29-3.08; I2 = 80.6%), and absence of co-morbidity (POR:3.2;95% CI: 2.15-4.76; I2 = 78.7%) had better odds of recovery. This systematic review and meta-analysis suggestes HIV infected children had lower recovery rate from SAM (POR; 0.19; 95% CI: 0.09-0.39; I2 = 42.9%) compared to those non-infected. CONCLUSION:The meta-analysis deciphers that the pooled recovery rate was below the SPHERE standard, and further works would be needed to improve the recovery rate. So, factors that were identified might help to revise the plan set by the countries, and further research might be required to explore health fascilities fidelity to the WHO SAM management protocol

Glycemic Control of Diabetes Mellitus Patients in Referral Hospitals of Amhara Region, Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background. Glycemic control is the level of glucose in diabetes patient. Evidence regarding glycemic control is scarce in resource-limited settings, and this study was conducted to generate information regarding the prevalence and predictors of glycemic control among diabetes mellitus patients attending their care from the referral hospitals of the Amhara region, Ethiopia. Methods. A cross-sectional study design was implemented. A simple random sampling technique was used. Data were collected from March 2018 to January 2020. The data were collected using interviews, chart review, and blood samples. Hemoglobin A1c was measured using high-performance liquid chromatography. Data were entered into Epi-info software and analyzed by SPSS software. Descriptive statistics were used to estimate the prevalence of glycemic control; linear regression was used to identify the predictors of HbA1c. Results. A total of 2554 diabetes patients were included giving for the response rate of 95.83%. The mean age of the study participants was 54.08 years [SD standard deviation±8.38 years]. The mean HbA1c of the study participants was 7.31% [SD±0.94%]. Glycemic control was poor in 55.32% [95% CI: 53.4%-57.25%] of diabetes patients. The glycemic control of diabetes patients was determined by BMI (β 0.1; [95% CI: 0.09-0.1]), type 2 diabetes (β -0.14; [95% CI: -0.11-0.16]), age (β 0.22; [95% CI: 0.02-0.024]), duration of the disease (β 0.04; [95% CI: 0.037-0.042]), the presence of hypertension (β 0.12; [95% CI:0.09–0.16]), regular physical exercise (β -0.06; [95% CI: -0.03-0.09]), medication adherence (β -0.16; [95% CI: -0.14-0.18]), and male (β 0.34; [95% CI: 0.31-.037]). Conclusion. The glycemic control of diabetes patients was poor, and it needs the attention of decision-makers

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

MAPPING LOCAL PATTERNS OF CHILDHOOD OVERWEIGHT AND WASTING IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic