Redefining the "carrier" state for foot-and-mouth disease from the dynamics of virus persistence in endemically affected cattle populations

The foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) “carrier” state was defined by van Bekkum in 1959. It was based on the recovery of infectious virus 28 days or more post infection and has been a useful construct for experimental studies. Using historic data from 1,107 cattle, collected as part of a population based study of endemic FMD in 2000, we developed a mixed effects logistic regression model to predict the probability of recovering viable FMDV by probang and culture, conditional on the animal’s age and time since last reported outbreak. We constructed a second set of models to predict the probability of an animal being probang positive given its antibody response in three common non-structural protein (NSP) ELISAs and its age. We argue that, in natural ecological settings, the current definition of a ”carrier” fails to capture the dynamics of either persistence of the virus (as measured by recovery using probangs) or the uncertainty in transmission from such animals that the term implies. In these respects it is not particularly useful. We therefore propose the first predictive statistical models for identifying persistently infected cattle in an endemic setting that captures some of the dynamics of the probability of persistence. Furthermore, we provide a set of predictive tools to use alongside NSP ELISAs to help target persistently infected cattle

Densification of Ni and TiAl by SPS: kinetics and microscopic mechanisms

International audienceDensification by spark plasma sintering (SPS) of ductile (Ni) and brittle (TiAl) metallic materials have been studied to elucidate the mechanism of densification in the two cases. Isothermal densification experiments were carried out to determine the activation parameters in Ni. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations of thin foils extracted by focused ion beam (FIB) in the contact regions between particles of TiAl and Ni powders are presented. Macroscopically, the most striking feature observed here is that the densification of Ni takes place in the wide temperature range of 0.2-1.0 Tm, whereas that of TiAl varies in 0.7-0.9 Tm, which is significantly narrower (Tm being the melting temperature of Ni and the peritectic temperature of TiAl). In Ni, the low activation energy (164 ± 30 kJ/mol), the high dislocation density in the inter-particle contact region, and the formation of recovery cells involving dislocation climb, indicate that the rate-controlling mechanism is probably self-diffusion in dislocations. In TiAl, high dislocation densities leading to reorganization into sub-boundaries point to dislocation climb mechanisms, which are kinetically controlled by volume diffusion. The difference in densification kinetics between Ni and TiAl is then accounted for in terms of the difference in their respective rate-controlling mechanisms operative during densification