Atmospheric composition and climate impacts of a future hydrogen economy

Hydrogen is expected to play a key role in the global energy transition to net zero emissions in many scenarios. However, fugitive emissions of hydrogen into the atmosphere during its production, storage, distribution and use could reduce the climate benefit and also have implications for air quality. Here we explore the atmospheric composition and climate impacts of increases in atmospheric hydrogen abundance using the UKESM1 chemistry-climate model. We find that increases in hydrogen result in increases in methane, tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapour, resulting in a positive radiative forcing. However, some of the impacts of hydrogen leakage are partially offset by potential reductions in emissions of methane, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds from the consumption of fossil fuels. We derive a new methodology for determining indirect Global Warming Potentials from steady-state simulations which is applicable to both shorter-lived species and those with intermediate and longer lifetimes, such as hydrogen. Using this methodology, we determine a 100-year Global Warming Potential for hydrogen of 12 &plusmn; 6. To maximise the benefit of hydrogen as an energy source, emissions associated with hydrogen leakage and emissions of the ozone precursor gases need to be minimised.</p

Inter-model comparison of global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions and their impact on atmospheric methane over the 2000–2016 period

The modeling study presented here aims to estimate how uncertainties in global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions, variability, and trends may contribute to resolving discrepancies between simulated and observed methane (CH4) changes since 2000. A multi-model ensemble of 14 OH fields was analyzed and aggregated into 64 scenarios to force the offline atmospheric chemistry transport model LMDz (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique) with a standard CH4 emission scenario over the period 2000–2016. The multi-model simulated global volume-weighted tropospheric mean OH concentration ([OH]) averaged over 2000–2010 ranges between 8:7*10^5 and 12:8*10^5 molec cm-3. The inter-model differences in tropospheric OH burden and vertical distributions are mainly determined by the differences in the nitrogen oxide (NO) distributions, while the spatial discrepancies between OH fields are mostly due to differences in natural emissions and volatile organic compound (VOC) chemistry. From 2000 to 2010, most simulated OH fields show an increase of 0.1–0:3*10^5 molec cm-3 in the tropospheric mean [OH], with year-to-year variations much smaller than during the historical period 1960–2000. Once ingested into the LMDz model, these OH changes translated into a 5 to 15 ppbv reduction in the CH4 mixing ratio in 2010, which represents 7%–20% of the model-simulated CH4 increase due to surface emissions. Between 2010 and 2016, the ensemble of simulations showed that OH changes could lead to a CH4 mixing ratio uncertainty of > 30 ppbv. Over the full 2000–2016 time period, using a common stateof- the-art but nonoptimized emission scenario, the impact of [OH] changes tested here can explain up to 54% of the gap between model simulations and observations. This result emphasizes the importance of better representing OH abundance and variations in CH4 forward simulations and emission optimizations performed by atmospheric inversions

Can a “state of the art” chemistry transport model simulate Amazonian tropospheric chemistry?

We present an evaluation of a nested high-resolution Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem chemistry transport model simulation of tropospheric chemistry over tropical South America. The model has been constrained with two isoprene emission inventories: (1) the canopy-scale Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and (2) a leaf-scale algorithm coupled to the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) dynamic vegetation model, and the model has been run using two different chemical mechanisms that contain alternative treatments of isoprene photo-oxidation. Large differences of up to 100 Tg C yr^(−1) exist between the isoprene emissions predicted by each inventory, with MEGAN emissions generally higher. Based on our simulations we estimate that tropical South America (30–85°W, 14°N–25°S) contributes about 15–35% of total global isoprene emissions. We have quantified the model sensitivity to changes in isoprene emissions, chemistry, boundary layer mixing, and soil NO_x emissions using ground-based and airborne observations. We find GEOS-Chem has difficulty reproducing several observed chemical species; typically hydroxyl concentrations are underestimated, whilst mixing ratios of isoprene and its oxidation products are overestimated. The magnitude of model formaldehyde (HCHO) columns are most sensitive to the choice of chemical mechanism and isoprene emission inventory. We find GEOS-Chem exhibits a significant positive bias (10–100%) when compared with HCHO columns from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for the study year 2006. Simulations that use the more detailed chemical mechanism and/or lowest isoprene emissions provide the best agreement to the satellite data, since they result in lower-HCHO columns

Implementation of U.K. Earth system models for CMIP6

We describe the scientific and technical implementation of two models for a core set of experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The models used are the physical atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice model HadGEM3-GC3.1 and the Earth system model UKESM1 which adds a carbon-nitrogen cycle and atmospheric chemistry to HadGEM3-GC3.1. The model results are constrained by the external boundary conditions (forcing data) and initial conditions.We outline the scientific rationale and assumptions made in specifying these. Notable details of the implementation include an ozone redistribution scheme for prescribed ozone simulations (HadGEM3-GC3.1) to avoid inconsistencies with the model's thermal tropopause, and land use change in dynamic vegetation simulations (UKESM1) whose influence will be subject to potential biases in the simulation of background natural vegetation.We discuss the implications of these decisions for interpretation of the simulation results. These simulations are expensive in terms of human and CPU resources and will underpin many further experiments; we describe some of the technical steps taken to ensure their scientific robustness and reproducibility

Association between proton pump inhibitor therapy and clostridium difficile infection: a contemporary systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract Introduction Emerging epidemiological evidence suggests that proton pump inhibitor (PPI) acid-suppression therapy is associated with an increased risk of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Methods Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus were searched from 1990 to January 2012 for analytical studies that reported an adjusted effect estimate of the association between PPI use and CDI. We performed random-effect meta-analyses. We used the GRADE framework to interpret the findings. Results We identified 47 eligible citations (37 case-control and 14 cohort studies) with corresponding 51 effect estimates. The pooled OR was 1.65, 95% CI (1.47, 1.85), I2 = 89.9%, with evidence of publication bias suggested by a contour funnel plot. A novel regression based method was used to adjust for publication bias and resulted in an adjusted pooled OR of 1.51 (95% CI, 1.26–1.83). In a speculative analysis that assumes that this association is based on causality, and based on published baseline CDI incidence, the risk of CDI would be very low in the general population taking PPIs with an estimated NNH of 3925 at 1 year. Conclusions In this rigorously conducted systemic review and meta-analysis, we found very low quality evidence (GRADE class) for an association between PPI use and CDI that does not support a cause-effect relationship

The association between histamine 2 receptor antagonist use and Clostridium difficile infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a major health problem. Epidemiological evidence suggests that there is an association between acid suppression therapy and development of CDI. Purpose We sought to systematically review the literature that examined the association between histamine 2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) and CDI. Data source We searched Medline, Current Contents, Embase, ISI Web of Science and Elsevier Scopus from 1990 to 2012 for all analytical studies that examined the association between H2RAs and CDI. Study selection Two authors independently reviewed the studies for eligibility. Data extraction Data about studies characteristics, adjusted effect estimates and quality were extracted. Data synthesis Thirty-five observations from 33 eligible studies that included 201834 participants were analyzed. Studies were performed in 6 countries and nine of them were multicenter. Most studies did not specify the type or duration of H2RAs therapy. The pooled effect estimate was 1.44, 95% CI (1.22–1.7), I2 = 70.5%. This association was consistent across different subgroups (by study design and country) and there was no evidence of publication bias. The pooled effect estimate for high quality studies was 1.39 (1.15–1.68), I2 = 72.3%. Meta-regression analysis of 10 study-level variables did not identify sources of heterogeneity. In a speculative analysis, the number needed to harm (NNH) with H2RAs at 14 days after hospital admission in patients receiving antibiotics or not was 58, 95% CI (37, 115) and 425, 95% CI (267, 848), respectively. For the general population, the NNH at 1 year was 4549, 95% CI (2860, 9097). Conclusion In this rigorous systematic review and meta-analysis, we observed an association between H2RAs and CDI. The absolute risk of CDI associated with H2RAs is highest in hospitalized patients receiving antibiotics

Intercomparison of the representations of the atmospheric chemistry of pre-industrial methane and ozone in earth system and other global chemistry-transport models

An intercomparison has been set up to study the representation of the atmospheric chemistry of the pre-industrial troposphere in earth system and other global tropospheric chemistry-transport models. The intercomparison employed a constrained box model and utilised tropospheric trace gas composition data for the pre-industrial times at ninety mid-latitude surface locations. Incremental additions of four organic compounds: methane, ethane, acetone and propane, were used to perturb the constrained box model and generate responses in hydroxyl radicals and tropospheric ozone at each location and with each chemical mechanism. Although the responses agreed well across the chemical mechanisms from the selected earth system and other global tropospheric chemistry-transport models, there were differences in the detailed responses between the chemical mechanisms that could be tracked down by sensitivity analysis to differences in the representation of C1–C3 chemistry. Inter-mechanism ranges in NOx compensation points were about 0.17 ± 0.12 when expressed relative to the inter-mechanism average. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis carried out with a single chemical mechanism put the intra-mechanism range a factor of three higher at 0.50 ± 0.12

Osteonecrosis of the Jaw After Bisphosphonates Treatment in Patients with Multiple Myeloma

Bone lytic lesion in Multiple myeloma are the most commonly presented symptoms which require treatment with bisphosphonates (BPs). BPs are providing supportive care, reducing the rate of skeletal morbidity but evidently not abolishing it, the criteria for stopping their administration have to be different from those used for classic antineoplastic drugs, and they should not be stopped when metastatic bone disease is progressing. Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) has been associated recently with the use of BPs. The aim of these study is to evaluate the incidence of ONJ in patients with MM treated with mixed biphosphonates. We analyzed total 296 myeloma patients (150 male and 146 female). Mostly effected age group with 58,1% is age more than 60 years up to 88 years, diagnosed in our institution in the period 2005-2015. We used intravenous or oral forms of biphosphonates such as pamidronate, ibandronate, clodronate and zolendronic acid. The patients were evaluated for ONJ. The incidence of ONJ in our group of patients treated with Bps was 4,6% from our group of 260 patients 87,8% received BPs therapy and patients which haven’t received BPs 12,2%. From this group, 95,4% (248) didn’t show ONJ, and 4,6% (12) showed ONJ. The period of this treatment with BPs is an important risk factor for development of ONJ, average duration of BPs therapy in patients which show adverse effects is 26.8±13.7 months, from the total number of 12 patients that developed ONJ adverse effects, we have 8 patients which received treatment with Zolendronic acid and the remaining 4 patients which were treated with other BPs combinations without Zolendronic acid. All patients treated for MM must continue with the therapy with Zolendronic acid and Pamidronate, each patient must be individually treated according to his response of the treatment (dose, frequency and duration of therapy)