The process of developing a management system for subsistence fisheries in South Africa: recognizing and formalizing a marginalized fishing sector in South Africa

Subsistence fishers were first recognized as a formal fishing sector in South Africa when new fishing legislation, aimed at redressing past inequalities, was enacted in 1998. Little information was available about these fishers, their activities, and the resources upon which they rely. Recognizing the imperative to gain an understanding of the fishers and to consult broadly, the national agency responsible for the management of marine living resources, Marine and Coastal Management (MCM) of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, appointed a Subsistence Fisheries Task Group (SFTG) in December 1998 to provide advice on the implementation of appropriate management systems for subsistence fisheries. This paper describes the process followed to formulate recommendations that were presented by the SFTG to MCM in February 2000. The activities of the SFTG fell into two categories: research aimed at identifying subsistence fishers and gaining an understanding of their activities and socio-economic profiles; and consultation aimed at ensuring that the needs and aspirations of fishers and the experience of local managers were incorporated. Research included both field-based studies and synthesis of information about comparative fisheries elsewhere. Consultation took the form of local interviews and focusgroup discussions, meetings with fishers and a national workshop. A pivotal activity was the development of a clear definition and qualifying criteria for subsistence fishers. A significant outcome was the identification of a separate small-scale commercial sector, previously erroneously lumped with subsistence fishers. Needs of fishers and problems identified during the process provided the basis for recommendations in the following areas: definitions, assessment and categorization of resources, management systems, communication mechanisms, application and allocation procedures, capacity building, compliance, research and monitoring, and funding and staff required for the management of this new sector. An evaluation is made of the opportunities presented by the SFTG process, constraints experienced and lessons learnt, giving important insights that are applicable to other similar processes, yet seldom documented in formal literature. Keywords: management of fisheries, subsistence fisheriesAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2002, 24: 405–42

A global optimisation approach to range-restricted survey calibration

Survey calibration methods modify minimally unit-level sample weights to fit domain-level benchmark constraints (BC). This allows exploitation of auxiliary information, e.g. census totals, to improve the representativeness of sample data (addressing coverage limitations, non-response) and the quality of estimates of population parameters. Calibration methods may fail with samples presenting small/zero counts for some benchmark groups or when range restrictions (RR), such as positivity, are imposed to avoid unrealistic or extreme weights. User-defined modifications of BC/RR performed after encountering non-convergence allow little control on the solution, and penalization approaches modelling infeasibility may not guarantee convergence. Paradoxically, this has led to underuse in calibration of highly disaggregated information, when available. We present an always-convergent flexible two-step Global Optimisation (GO) survey calibration approach. The feasibility of the calibration problem is assessed, and automatically controlled minimum errors in BC or changes in RR are allowed to guarantee convergence in advance, while preserving the good properties of calibration estimators. Modelling alternatives under different scenarios, using various error/change and distance measures are formulated and discussed. The GO approach is validated by calibrating the weights of the 2012 Health Survey for England to a fine age-gender-region cross-tabulation (378 counts) from the 2011 Census in England and Wales

A global optimisation approach to range-restricted survey calibration

Survey calibration methods modify minimally unit-level sample weights to fit domain-level benchmark constraints (BC). This allows exploitation of auxiliary information, e.g. census totals, to improve the representativeness of sample data (addressing coverage limitations, non-response) and the quality of estimates of population parameters. Calibration methods may fail with samples presenting small/zero counts for some benchmark groups or when range restrictions (RR), such as positivity, are imposed to avoid unrealistic or extreme weights. User-defined modifications of BC/RR performed after encountering non-convergence allow little control on the solution, and penalization approaches modelling infeasibility may not guarantee convergence. Paradoxically, this has led to underuse in calibration of highly disaggregated information, when available. We present an always-convergent flexible two-step Global Optimisation (GO) survey calibration approach. The feasibility of the calibration problem is assessed, and automatically controlled minimum errors in BC or changes in RR are allowed to guarantee convergence in advance, while preserving the good properties of calibration estimators. Modelling alternatives under different scenarios, using various error/change and distance measures are formulated and discussed. The GO approach is validated by calibrating the weights of the 2012 Health Survey for England to a fine age-gender-region cross-tabulation (378 counts) from the 2011 Census in England and Wales

Shrinking and Splitting of drainage basins in orogenic landscapes from the migration of the main drainage divide

International audienceClimate, and in particular **the spatial pattern of precipitation, is thought to affect* *the topographic and tectonic evolution of mountain belts through erosion. Numerical model simulations of landscape erosion controlled **by horizontal tectonic motion or orographic precipitation result in the asymmetric topography that characterizes most natural mountain belts, and in a continuous migration of the main drainage divide. The effects of such a migration have, however, been challenging to observe in natural settings. Here I document the effects of a lateral precipitation gradient on a landscape undergoing constant uplift in a laboratory modelling experiment. In the experiment, the drainage divide migrates towards the drier, leeward side of the mountain range, causing the drainage basins on the leeward side to shrink and split into* *smaller basins. This mechanism results in a progressively increasing number of drainage basins on the leeward side of the mountain range as the divide migrates, such that the expected relationship between the spacing of drainage basins and the location of the main drainage divide is maintained. I propose that this mechanism could clarify the drainage divide migration and topographic asymmetry found in active orogenic mountain ranges, as exemplified by the Aconquija Range of Argentin

Nitrous oxide as a function of oxygen and archaeal gene abundance in the North Pacific

Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/E01559X/1)

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Genetic Structure in the Seabuckthorn Carpenter Moth (Holcocerus hippophaecolus) in China: The Role of Outbreak Events, Geographical and Host Factors

Understanding factors responsible for structuring genetic diversity is of fundamental importance in evolutionary biology. The seabuckthorn carpenter moth (Holcocerus hippophaecolus Hua) is a native species throughout the north of China and is considered the main threat to seabuckthorn, Hippophae rhamnoides L. We assessed the influence of outbreaks, environmental factors and host species in shaping the genetic variation and structure of H. hippophaecolus by using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) markers. We rejected the hypothesis that outbreak-associated genetic divergence exist, as evidenced by genetic clusters containing a combination of populations from historical outbreak areas, as well as non-outbreak areas. Although a small number of markers (4 of 933 loci) were identified as candidates under selection in response to population densities. H. hippophaecolus also did not follow an isolation-by-distance pattern. We rejected the hypothesis that outbreak and drought events were driving the genetic structure of H. hippophaecolus. Rather, the genetic structure appears to be influenced by various confounding bio-geographical factors. There were detectable genetic differences between H. hippophaecolus occupying different host trees from within the same geographic location. Host-associated genetic divergence should be confirmed by further investigation

A framework for parameter estimation and model selection from experimental data in systems biology using approximate Bayesian computation.

As modeling becomes a more widespread practice in the life sciences and biomedical sciences, researchers need reliable tools to calibrate models against ever more complex and detailed data. Here we present an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework and software environment, ABC-SysBio, which is a Python package that runs on Linux and Mac OS X systems and that enables parameter estimation and model selection in the Bayesian formalism by using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approaches. We outline the underlying rationale, discuss the computational and practical issues and provide detailed guidance as to how the important tasks of parameter inference and model selection can be performed in practice. Unlike other available packages, ABC-SysBio is highly suited for investigating, in particular, the challenging problem of fitting stochastic models to data. In order to demonstrate the use of ABC-SysBio, in this protocol we postulate the existence of an imaginary reaction network composed of seven interrelated biological reactions (involving a specific mRNA, the protein it encodes and a post-translationally modified version of the protein), a network that is defined by two files containing 'observed' data that we provide as supplementary information. In the first part of the PROCEDURE, ABC-SysBio is used to infer the parameters of this system, whereas in the second part we use ABC-SysBio's relevant functionality to discriminate between two different reaction network models, one of them being the 'true' one. Although computationally expensive, the additional insights gained in the Bayesian formalism more than make up for this cost, especially in complex problems

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Left ventricular twist mechanics during incremental cycling and knee extension exercise in healthy men

Purpose: The objective of the present study was to investigate left ventricular (LV) twist mechanics in response to incremental cycling and isometric knee extension exercises. Methods: Twenty-six healthy male participants (age = 30.42 ± 6.17 years) were used to study peak twist mechanics at rest and during incremental semi-supine cycling at 30 and 60% work rate maximum (W) and during short duration (15 s contractions) isometric knee extension at 40 and 75% maximum voluntary contraction (MVC), using two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography. Results: Data presented as mean ± standard deviation or median (interquartile range). LV twist increased from rest to 30% W (13.21° ± 4.63° to 20.04° ± 4.76°, p  0.05), whilst twisting velocity increased (rest 89.15° ± 21.77° s to 75% MVC 124.32° ± 34.89° s, p  0.05) then increased from 40 to 75% MVC [−98.44 (43.54)° s to −138.42 (73.29)° s, p < 0.01]. Apical rotations and rotational velocities were greater than basal during all conditions and intensities (all p < 0.01). Conclusion: Cycling increased LV twist to 30% W which then remained unchanged thereafter, whereas twisting velocities showed further increases to greater intensities. A novel finding is that LV twist was unaffected by incremental knee extension, yet systolic and diastolic twisting velocities augmented with isometric exercise