Ark or park: the need to predict relative effectiveness of ex situ and in situ conservation before attempting captive breeding

1. When species face extinction, captive breeding may be appropriate. However, captive breeding may be unsuccessful, while reducing motivation and resources for in situ conservation and impacting wild source populations. Despite such risks, decisions are generally taken without rigorous evaluation. We develop an individual-based, stochastic population model to evaluate the potential effectiveness of captive-breeding and release programmes, illustrated by the Critically Endangered Ardeotis nigriceps Vigors great Indian bustard. 2. The model was parameterized from a comprehensive review of captive breeding and wild demography of large bustards. To handle uncertainty in the standards of captive-breeding performance that may be achieved we explored four scenarios of programme quality: ‘full-range’ (parameters sampled across the observed range), ‘below-average’, ‘above-average’ and ‘best possible’ (performance observed in exemplary breeding programmes). Results are evaluated examining i) the probability of captive population extirpation within 50 years and ii) numbers of adult females subsequently established in the wild following release, compared to an alternative strategy of in situ conservation without attempting captive breeding. 3. Successful implementation of captive breeding, involving permanent retention of 20 breeding females and release of surplus juveniles, required collection of many wild eggs and consistent ‘best possible’ performance across all aspects of the programme. Under ‘full-range’ and ‘above-average’ scenarios captive population extirpation probabilities were 73–88% % and 23‒51%% respectively, depending on egg collection rates. 4. Although most (73‒92%) ‘best possible’ programmes supported releases, re-establishment of free-living adults also required effective in situ conservation. Incremental implementation of effective conservation measures over the initial 10 years resulted in more free-living adults within 35 years if eggs were left in the wild without attempting captive breeding. 5. Synthesis and applications. For the great Indian bustard Ardeotis nigriceps, rapid implementation of in situ conservation offers a better chance to avoid extinction than captive breeding. Demographic modelling should be used to examine whether captive breeding is likely to bring net benefits to conservation programmes

Evaluation of chemical quality in 17 brands of Iranian bottled drinking waters

Background: The purpose of study was to evaluate and compare chemical quality of Iranian bottled drinking water reported on manufacturer's labeling and standards. Methods: This study was a cross-sectional descriptive study and done during July to December 2008. The bottled mineral water collected from shops randomly were analyzed for all parameters address on manufacturer's labeling and the results were compared with the manufacturer's labeling data, WHO Guideline Values, USEPA Maximum Contaminant Levels and the maximum contaminant levels of drinking water imposed by the Iranian legislation. Statistical analysis on data was done with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normal distribution, the paired t-test to compare the data with manufacturer's labeling and the one-sample t-test to compare with standard and MCL values at P < 0.05 of confidence level. Results: The results showed a statistically significant difference with manufacturer's labeling values, however there was no significant difference between the values of magnesium and pH and manufacturer's labeling values (P> 0.05). In addition, pH and calcium values were significantly higher than their proposed values indicated by Iranian National Legislation and international MCLs (P< 0.05). Conclusion: Our results are extremely important for the health supervisory agencies such as Ministry of Health and Institute of Standards & Industrial Research of Iran to have more effective controls on bottled water industries, and to improve periodical the proposed standard values

Application of ion exchange and air stripping methods to remove ammonium in recirculation fish culture system effluents

Increase in water pH in recirculation fish culture systems turns ammonium into ammonia which can kill fish even in low concentrations. The purpose of this study was to apply ion exchange and air stripping methods to remove ammonium in effluents of recirculation fish culture systems. Ion exchange method was done using Graded Zeolite Clinoptilolite from Semnan Province to remove ammonium and air stripping was applied to zap ammonium from Zeoilte. Regeneration tests were conducted in which known weights of ammonium saturated Clinoptilolite were contacted with 1 normal concentration of CINa solution. Different concentrations of ammonium were selected and the effects of temperature and pH in releasing ammonia were also investigated. Results show that the cation exchange capacities in continuous systems were 7.61 to 11.22 (in breakthrough point) and 16.31 to 19.5mg ammonium per gram of ion exchanger as total capacity. The results of regeneration experiments by NaCI (1 normal) solution proved the efficiency of chemical regeneration of zeolite column to be as high as 94.9% to 99.1%. The efficiency of regeneration by air stripping was determined to be 92% in 16 hours. The efficiency of acid absorption of released ammonia in stripping process was determined as 55% where the surplus was rejected to the atmosphere. It is concluded that the method may be regarded as a completing process for water treatment in closed fish tanks

Relationships of Sleep Duration, Midpoint, and Variability with Physical Activity in the HCHS/SOL Sueño Ancillary Study

Objective/Background: Short and long sleep duration, later sleep midpoint, and greater intra-individual sleep variability are associated with lower physical activity, but previous research lacks objective and concurrent assessment of sleep and physical activity. This cross-sectional study examined whether sleep duration, midpoint, and variability in duration and midpoint were related to wrist actigraphy-measured physical activity. Participants: Participants were 2156 Hispanics/Latinos in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) Sueño Ancillary Study. Methods: Participants wore Actiwatch devices to measure sleep and physical activity via the wrist for ≥5 days. Physical activity was defined as minutes/day in the upper quartile of the sampling distribution’s non-sleep activity, capturing light to vigorous physical activity. Results: An inverse linear relationship between sleep duration and physical activity was found such that each additional sleep hour related to 29 fewer minutes of physical activity (B = −28.7, SE = 3.8), p <.01). Variability in sleep midpoint was also associated with physical activity; with each 1-hr increase in variability there were 24 more minutes of physical activity (B = 24.2, SE = 5.6, p <.01). In contrast, sleep midpoint and variability in duration were not associated with physical activity. Sensitivity analyses identified an association of short sleep duration and greater variability in sleep duration with greater accelerometry-derived moderate-to-vigorous physical activity measured at the HCHS/SOL baseline (M = 2.1 years before the sleep assessment). Conclusions: Findings help clarify inconsistent prior research associating short sleep duration and sleep variability with greater health risks but also contribute novel information with simultaneous objective assessments

Intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents for ocular vascular diseases: Clinical practice guideline

Purpose: To provide the clinical recommendations for the administration of intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) drugs especially bavacizumab for ocular vascular diseases including diabetic macular edema, neovascular age-related macular degeneration, myopic choroidal neovascularization, retinal vein occlusion and central serous chorioretinopathy. Methods: Twenty clinical questions were developed by the guideline technical committee. Relevant websites and databases were searched to find out the pertinent clinical practice guidelines to answer the questions. The technical committee provided possible answers (scenarios) according to the available evidences for each question. All scenarios along with their levels of evidence and the supported articles were sent to the experts for external review. If the experts did not agree on any of the scenarios for one particular clinical question, the technical committee reviewed all scenarios and their pertinent evidences and made the necessary decision. After that, the experts were asked to score them again. All confirmed scenarios were gathered as the final recommendations. Results: All the experts agreed on at least one of the scenarios. The technical committee extracted the agreed scenario for each clinical question as the final recommendation. Finally, 56 recommendations were developed for the procedure of intravitreal anti-VEGF injection and their applications in the management of ocular vascular diseases. Conclusion: The implementation of this guideline can standardize the management of the common ocular vascular diseases by intravitreal injection of anti-VEGF agents. It can lead to better policy-making and evidence-based clinical decision by ophthalmologists and optimal evidence based eye care for patients. © 2018 Journal of Ophthalmic and Vision Research

Intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents for ocular vascular diseases: Clinical practice guideline

Purpose: To provide the clinical recommendations for the administration of intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) drugs especially bavacizumab for ocular vascular diseases including diabetic macular edema, neovascular age-related macular degeneration, myopic choroidal neovascularization, retinal vein occlusion and central serous chorioretinopathy. Methods: Twenty clinical questions were developed by the guideline technical committee. Relevant websites and databases were searched to find out the pertinent clinical practice guidelines to answer the questions. The technical committee provided possible answers (scenarios) according to the available evidences for each question. All scenarios along with their levels of evidence and the supported articles were sent to the experts for external review. If the experts did not agree on any of the scenarios for one particular clinical question, the technical committee reviewed all scenarios and their pertinent evidences and made the necessary decision. After that, the experts were asked to score them again. All confirmed scenarios were gathered as the final recommendations. Results: All the experts agreed on at least one of the scenarios. The technical committee extracted the agreed scenario for each clinical question as the final recommendation. Finally, 56 recommendations were developed for the procedure of intravitreal anti-VEGF injection and their applications in the management of ocular vascular diseases. Conclusion: The implementation of this guideline can standardize the management of the common ocular vascular diseases by intravitreal injection of anti-VEGF agents. It can lead to better policy-making and evidence-based clinical decision by ophthalmologists and optimal evidence based eye care for patients. © 2018 Journal of Ophthalmic and Vision Research

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached$8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total,$40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this,$13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and$1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4$2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7$1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe