Stability of heartbeat interval distributions in chronic high altitude hypoxia

Recent studies of nonlinear dynamics of the long-term variability of heart rate have identified nontrivial long-range correlations and scale-invariant power-law characteristics (1/f noise) that were remarkably consistent between individuals and were unrelated to external or environmental stimuli (Meyer et al., 1998a). The present analysis of complex nonstationary heartbeat patterns is based on the sequential application of the wavelet transform for elimination of local polynomial nonstationary behavior and an analytic signal approach by use of the Hilbert transform (Cumulative Variation Amplitude Analysis). The effects of chronic high altitude hypoxia on the distributions and scaling functions of cardiac intervals over 24 hr epochs and 4 hr day/nighttime subepochs were determined from serial heartbeat interval time series of digitized 24 hr ambulatory ECGs recorded in 9 healthy subjects (mean age 34 yrs) at sea level and during a sojourn at high altitude (5,050 m) for 34 days (Ev-K2-CNR Pyramid Laboratory, Sagarmatha National Park, Nepal). The results suggest that there exists a hidden, potentially universal, common structure in the heterogeneous time series. A common scaling function with a stable Gamma distribution defines the probability density of the amplitudes of the fluctuations in the heartbeat interval time series of individual subjects. The appropriately rescaled distributions of normal subjects at sea level demonstrated stable Gamma scaling consistent with a single scaled plot (data collapse). Longitudinal assessment of the rescaled distributions of the 24 hr recordings of individual subjects showed that the stability of the distributions was unaffected by the subject's exposure to a hypobaric (hypoxic) environment. The rescaled distributions of 4 hr subepochs showed similar scaling behavior with a stable Gamma distribution indicating that the common structure was unequivocally applicable to both day and night phases and, furthermore, did not undergo systematic changes in response to high altitude. In contrast, a single function stable over a wide range of time scales was not observed in patients with congestive heart failure or patients after cardiac transplantation. The functional form of the scaling in normal subjects would seem to be attributable to the underlying nonlinear dynamics of cardiac control. The results suggest that the observed Gamma scaling of the distributions in healthy subjects constitutes an intrinsic dynamical property of normal heart function that would not undergo early readjustment or late acclimatization to extrinsic environmental physiological stress, e.g., chronic hypoxi

Is the heart preadapted to hypoxia? Evidence from fractal dynamics of heartbeat interval fluctuations at high altitude (5,050 m)

The dynamics of heartbeat interval time series over large time scales were studied by a modifed random walk analysis introduced recently asDetrended Fluctuation Analysis. In this analysis, the intrinsic fractal long-range power-law correlation properties of beat-to-beat fluctuations generated by the dynamical system (i.e., cardiac rhythm generator), after decomposition from extrinsic uncorrelated sources, can be quantified by the scaling exponent (α) which, in healthy subjects, for time scales of ∼104 beats is ∼1.0. The effects of chronic hypoxia were determined from serial heartbeat interval time series of digitized twenty-four-hour ambulatory ECGs recorded in nine healthy subjects (mean age thirty-four years old) at sea level and during a sojourn at 5,050 m for thirty-four days (Ev-K2-CNR Pyramid Laboratory, Sagarmatha National Park, Nepal). The group averaged α exponent (±SD) was 0.99±0.04 (range 0.93-1.04). Longitudinal assessment of α in individual subjects did not reveal any effect of exposure to chronic high altitude hypoxia. The finding of α∼1 indicating scale-invariant long-range power-law correlations (1/f noise) of heartbeat fluctuations would reflect a genuinely self-similar fractal process that typically generates fluctuations on a wide range of time scales. Lack of a characteristic time scale along with the absence of any effect from exposure to chronic hypoxia on scaling properties suggests that the neuroautonomic cardiac control system is preadapted to hypoxia which helps prevent excessive mode-locking (error tolerance) that would restrict its functional responsiveness (plasticity) to hypoxic or other physiological stimul

Impact of dynamic changes in MELD score on survival after liver transplantation : a Eurotransplant registry analysis

Background & Aims: With restricted numbers of available organs, futility in liver transplantation has to be avoided. The concept of dynamic changes in MELD score (DeltaMELD) has previously been shown to be a simple tool to identify patients with the greatest risk of death after transplantation. Aim was to validate this concept with the Eurotransplant (ET) database. Methods: A retrospective registry analysis was performed on all patients listed for liver transplantation within ET between 2006 and 2011. Patients <18 years of age, acute liver failure, malignancy and patients listed for retransplantation were excluded. Influence of MELD at listing (MELDon), MELD at transplantation (MELDoff), DeltaMELD, age, sex, underlying disease and time on the waiting list on overall survival after liver transplantation were evaluated. Results: A total of 16 821 patients were listed for liver transplantation, 8096 met the inclusion criteria. Age, MELD on and DeltaMELD showed significant influence on survival on the waiting list. Age and DeltaMELD showed influence on survival after liver transplantation, with DeltaMELD>10 showing a 1.6-fold increased risk of death. Conclusion: The concept of DeltaMELD was validated in a large, prospective data set. It provides a simple tool to identify patients with increased risk of death after liver transplantation and might help improve long-term results

Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) reliably stratifies octogenarians in German ICUs: a multicentre prospective cohort study

Background: In intensive care units (ICU) octogenarians become a routine patients group with aggravated therapeutic and diagnostic decision-making. Due to increased mortality and a reduced quality of life in this high-risk population, medical decision-making a fortiori requires an optimum of risk stratification. Recently, the VIP-1 trial prospectively observed that the clinical frailty scale (CFS) performed well in ICU patients in overall-survival and short-term outcome prediction. However, it is known that healthcare systems differ in the 21 countries contributing to the VIP-1 trial. Hence, our main focus was to investigate whether the CFS is usable for risk stratification in octogenarians admitted to diversified and high tech German ICUs. Methods: This multicentre prospective cohort study analyses very old patients admitted to 20 German ICUs as a sub-analysis of the VIP-1 trial. Three hundred and eight patients of 80 years of age or older admitted consecutively to participating ICUs. CFS, cause of admission, APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA scores, use of ICU resources and ICU- and 30-day mortality were recorded. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality. Results: Patients had a median age of 84 [IQR 82–87] years and a mean CFS of 4.75 (± 1.6 standard-deviation) points. More than half of the patients (53.6%) were classified as frail (CFS ≥ 5). ICU-mortality was 17.3% and 30-day mortality was 31.2%. The cause of admission (planned vs. unplanned), (OR 5.74) and the CFS (OR 1.44 per point increase) were independent predictors of 30-day survival. Conclusions: The CFS is an easy determinable valuable tool for prediction of 30-day ICU survival in octogenarians, thus, it may facilitate decision-making for intensive care givers in Germany. Trial registration: The VIP-1 study was retrospectively registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT03134807 ) on May 1, 2017

Biomarker-guided intervention to prevent acute kidney injury after major surgery (BigpAK-2 trial): study protocol for an international, prospective, randomised controlled multicentre trial

IntroductionPrevious studies demonstrated that the implementation of the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guideline-based bundle, consisting of different supportive measures in patients at high risk for acute kidney injury (AKI), might reduce rate and severity of AKI after surgery. However, the effects of the care bundle in broader population of patients undergoing surgery require confirmation.Methods and analysisThe BigpAK-2 trial is an international, randomised, controlled, multicentre trial. The trial aims to enrol 1302 patients undergoing major surgery who are subsequently admitted to the intensive care or high dependency unit and are at high-risk for postoperative AKI as identified by urinary biomarkers (tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 2*insulin like growth factor binding protein 7 (TIMP-2)*IGFBP7)). Eligible patients will be randomised to receive either standard of care (control) or a KDIGO-based AKI care bundle (intervention). The primary endpoint is the incidence of moderate or severe AKI (stage 2 or 3) within 72 hours after surgery, according to the KDIGO 2012 criteria. Secondary endpoints include adherence to the KDIGO care bundle, occurrence and severity of any stage of AKI, change in biomarker values during 12 hours after initial measurement of (TIMP-2)*(IGFBP7), number of free days of mechanical ventilation and vasopressors, need for renal replacement therapy (RRT), duration of RRT, renal recovery, 30-day and 60-day mortality, intensive care unit length-of-stay and hospital length-of-stay and major adverse kidney events. An add-on study will investigate blood and urine samples from recruited patients for immunological functions and kidney damage.Ethics and disseminationThe BigpAK-2 trial was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty of the University of Münster and subsequently by the corresponding Ethics Committee of the participating sites. A study amendment was approved subsequently. In the UK, the trial was adopted as an NIHR portfolio study. Results will be disseminated widely and published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences and will guide patient care and further research.Trial registration numberNCT04647396

Supplemented ERA-EDTA Registry data evaluated the frequency of dialysis, kidney transplantation, and comprehensive conservative management for patients with kidney failure in Europe

The aims of this study were to determine the frequency of dialysis and kidney transplantation and to estimate the regularity of comprehensive conservative management (CCM) for patients with kidney failure in Europe. This study uses data from the ERA-EDTA Registry. Additionally, our study included supplemental data from Armenia, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Kosovo, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Slovenia and additional data from Israel, Italy, Slovakia using other information sources. Through an online survey, responding nephrologists estimated the frequency of CCM (i.e. planned holistic care instead of kidney replacement therapy) in 33 countries. In 2016, the overall incidence of replacement therapy for kidney failure was 132 per million population (pmp), varying from 29 (Ukraine) to 251 pmp (Greece). On 31 December 2016, the overall prevalence of kidney replacement therapy was 985 pmp, ranging from 188 (Ukraine) to 1906 pmp (Portugal). The prevalence of peritoneal dialysis (114 pmp) and home hemodialysis (28 pmp) was highest in Cyprus and Denmark respectively. The kidney transplantation rate was nearly zero in some countries and highest in Spain (64 pmp). In 28 countries with five or more responding nephrologists, the median percentage of candidates for kidney replacement therapy who were offered CCM in 2018 varied between none (Slovakia and Slovenia) and 20% (Finland) whereas the median prevalence of CCM varied between none (Slovenia) and 15% (Hungary). Thus, the substantial differences across Europe in the frequency of kidney replacement therapy and CCM indicate the need for improvement in access to various treatment options for patients with kidney failure.Peer reviewe

A paired-kidney allocation study found superior survival with HLA-DR compatible kidney transplants in the Eurotransplant Senior Program

The Eurotransplant Senior Program (ESP) has expedited the chance for elderly patients with kidney failure to receive a timely transplant. This current study evaluated survival parameters of kidneys donated after brain death with or without matching for HLA-DR antigens. This cohort study evaluated the period within ESP with paired allocation of 675 kidneys from donors 65 years and older to transplant candidates 65 years and older, the first kidney to 341 patients within the Eurotransplant Senior DR-compatible Program and 334 contralateral kidneys without (ESP) HLA-DR antigen matching. We used Kaplan-Meier estimates and competing risk analysis to assess all cause mortality and kidney graft failure, respectively. The log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression were used for comparisons. Within ESP, matching for HLA-DR antigens was associated with a significantly lower five-year risk of mortality (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.95) and significantly lower cause-specific hazards for kidney graft failure and return to dialysis at one year (0.55; 0.35-0.87) and five years (0.73; 0.53-0.99) post-transplant. Allocation based on HLA-DR matching resulted in longer cold ischemia (mean difference 1.00 hours; 95% confidence interval: 0.32-1.68) and kidney offers with a significantly shorter median dialysis vintage of 2.4 versus 4.1 yrs. in ESP without matching. Thus, our allocation based on HLA-DR matching improved five-year patient and kidney allograft survival. Hence, our paired allocation study suggests a superior outcome of HLA-DR matching in the context of old-for-old kidney transplantation.</p

Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a scoring system model that predicts mortality within 30 days of admission of patients older than 80 years admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: A total of 306 ICUs from 24 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults admitted to European ICUs (N = 3730; median age = 84 years [interquartile range = 81-87 y]; 51.8% male). MEASUREMENTS: Overall, 24 variables available during ICU admission were included as potential predictive variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Model sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: The 30-day-mortality was 1562 (41.9%). In multivariable analysis, these variables were selected as independent predictors of mortality: age, sex, ICU admission diagnosis, Clinical Frailty Scale, Sequential Organ Failure Score, invasive mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy. The discrimination, accuracy, and calibration of the model were good: the area under the curve for a score of 10 or higher was .80, and the Brier score was .18. At a cut point of 10 or higher (75% of all patients), the model predicts 30-day mortality in 91.1% of all patients who die. CONCLUSION: A predictive model of cumulative events predicts 30-day mortality in patients older than 80 years admitted to ICUs. Future studies should include other potential predictor variables including functional status, presence of advance care plans, and assessment of each patient's decision-making capacity

Sepsis at ICU admission does not decrease 30-day survival in very old patients: a post-hoc analysis of the VIP1 multinational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The number of intensive care patients aged ≥ 80 years (Very old Intensive Care Patients; VIPs) is growing. VIPs have high mortality and morbidity and the benefits of ICU admission are frequently questioned. Sepsis incidence has risen in recent years and identification of outcomes is of considerable public importance. We aimed to determine whether VIPs admitted for sepsis had different outcomes than those admitted for other acute reasons and identify potential prognostic factors for 30-day survival. RESULTS: This prospective study included VIPs with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores ≥ 2 acutely admitted to 307 ICUs in 21 European countries. Of 3869 acutely admitted VIPs, 493 (12.7%) [53.8% male, median age 83 (81-86) years] were admitted for sepsis. Sepsis was defined according to clinical criteria; suspected or demonstrated focus of infection and SOFA score ≥ 2 points. Compared to VIPs admitted for other acute reasons, VIPs admitted for sepsis were younger, had a higher SOFA score (9 vs. 7, p < 0.0001), required more vasoactive drugs [82.2% vs. 55.1%, p < 0.0001] and renal replacement therapies [17.4% vs. 9.9%; p < 0.0001], and had more life-sustaining treatment limitations [37.3% vs. 32.1%; p = 0.02]. Frailty was similar in both groups. Unadjusted 30-day survival was not significantly different between the two groups. After adjustment for age, gender, frailty, and SOFA score, sepsis had no impact on 30-day survival [HR 0.99 (95% CI 0.86-1.15), p = 0.917]. Inverse-probability weight (IPW)-adjusted survival curves for the first 30 days after ICU admission were similar for acute septic and non-septic patients [HR: 1.00 (95% CI 0.87-1.17), p = 0.95]. A matched-pair analysis in which patients with sepsis were matched with two control patients of the same gender with the same age, SOFA score, and level of frailty was also performed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model stratified on the matched pairs showed that 30-day survival was similar in both groups [57.2% (95% CI 52.7-60.7) vs. 57.1% (95% CI 53.7-60.1), p = 0.85]. CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for organ dysfunction, sepsis at admission was not independently associated with decreased 30-day survival in this multinational study of 3869 VIPs. Age, frailty, and SOFA score were independently associated with survival

Relationship between the Clinical Frailty Scale and short-term mortality in patients ≥ 80 years old acutely admitted to the ICU: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is frequently used to measure frailty in critically ill adults. There is wide variation in the approach to analysing the relationship between the CFS score and mortality after admission to the ICU. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of modelling approach on the association between the CFS score and short-term mortality and quantify the prognostic value of frailty in this context. METHODS: We analysed data from two multicentre prospective cohort studies which enrolled intensive care unit patients ≥ 80 years old in 26 countries. The primary outcome was mortality within 30-days from admission to the ICU. Logistic regression models for both ICU and 30-day mortality included the CFS score as either a categorical, continuous or dichotomous variable and were adjusted for patient's age, sex, reason for admission to the ICU, and admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. RESULTS: The median age in the sample of 7487 consecutive patients was 84 years (IQR 81-87). The highest fraction of new prognostic information from frailty in the context of 30-day mortality was observed when the CFS score was treated as either a categorical variable using all original levels of frailty or a nonlinear continuous variable and was equal to 9% using these modelling approaches (p < 0.001). The relationship between the CFS score and mortality was nonlinear (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Knowledge about a patient's frailty status adds a substantial amount of new prognostic information at the moment of admission to the ICU. Arbitrary simplification of the CFS score into fewer groups than originally intended leads to a loss of information and should be avoided. Trial registration NCT03134807 (VIP1), NCT03370692 (VIP2)