Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate

Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven" and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also important to "stretch" conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era "beyond fossil fuels". We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.Comment: (22 pages, 7 figures; final version accepted by Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Going beyond defining: Preschool educators\u27 use of knowledge in their pedagogical reasoning about vocabulary instruction

Previous research investigating both the knowledge of early childhood educators and the support for vocabulary development present in early childhood settings has indicated that both educator knowledge and enacted practice are less than optimal, which has grave implications for children\u27s early vocabulary learning and later reading achievement. Further, the nature of the relationship between educators\u27 knowledge and practice is unclear, making it difficult to discern the best path towards improved knowledge, practice, and children\u27s vocabulary outcomes. The purpose of the present study was to add to the existing literature by using stimulated recall interviews and a grounded approach to examine how 10 preschool educators used their knowledge to made decisions about their moment-to-moment instruction in support of children\u27s vocabulary development. Results indicate that educators were thinking in highly context-specific ways about their goals and strategies for supporting vocabulary learning, taking into account important knowledge of their instructional history with children and of the children themselves to inform their decision making in the moment. In addition, they reported thinking about research-based goals and strategies for supporting vocabulary learning that went beyond simply defining words for children. Implications for research and professional development are discussed

EPUAP classification system for pressure ulcers: European reliability study

‘The definitive version is available at www3.interscience.wiley.com .' Copyright Blackwell PublishingPeer reviewe

From uniformity to diversity: a paradigm shift from industrial agriculture to diversified agroecological systems

Today’s food and farming systems have succeeded in supplying large volumes of foods to global markets, but are generating negative outcomes on multiple fronts: widespread degradation of land, water and ecosystems; high GHG emissions; biodiversity losses; persistent hunger and micro-nutrient deficiencies alongside the rapid rise of obesity and diet-related diseases; and livelihood stresses for farmers around the world. Many of these problems are linked specifically to ‘industrial agriculture’: the input-intensive crop monocultures and industrial-scale feedlots that now dominate farming landscapes. The uniformity at the heart of these systems, and their reliance on chemical fertilizers, pesticides and preventive use of antibiotics, leads systematically to negative outcomes and vulnerabilities. What is required is a fundamentally different model of agriculture based on diversifying farms and farming landscapes, replacing chemical inputs, optimizing biodiversity and stimulating interactions between different species, as part of holistic strategies to build long-term fertility, healthy agro-ecosystems and secure livelihoods, i.e. ‘diversified agroecological systems’

Benefit-Cost Meta-Analysis of Investment in the International Agricultural Research Centers of the CGIAR

This study was undertaken by David Raitzer, on behalf of the CGIAR Standing Panel on Impact Assessment. The author addresses the question: do the documented benefits from CGIAR research justify the total investment in the CGIAR so far? The basic objective of the study is to derive a set of plausible and highly credible aggregate estimates of the benefits accruing from System innovations, and to set such against the present value of the entire CGIAR expenditure. The study contains several figures and tables. The forward was written by Hans Gregersen, Chair of the Standing Panel on Impact Assessment

Assessment of a self-reported Drinks Diary for the estimation of drinks intake by care home residents: Fluid Intake Study in the Elderly (FISE)

Objectives: We evaluated the accuracy of a newly developed self-completed Drinks Diary in care home residents and compared it with direct observation and fluid intake charts. Design: Observational study. Setting: Residential care homes in Norfolk, UK. Participants: 22 elderly people (18 women, mean age 86.6 years SD 8.6, 12 with MMSE scores <27). Measurements: Participants recorded their own drinks intake over 24 hours using the Drinks Diary while care staff used the homes’ usual fluid intake chart to record drinks intake. These records were compared with drinks intake assessed by researcher direct observation (reference method), during waking hours (6am to 10pm), while drinks taken from 10pm to 6am were self-reported and checked with staff. Results: Drinks intake assessed by the Drinks Diary was highly correlated with researcher direct observation (Pearson correlation coefficient r=0.93, p<0.001, mean difference -163ml/day) while few staff-completed fluid charts were returned and correlation was low (r=0.122, p=0.818, mean difference 702ml/day). The Drinks Diary classified 19 of 22 participants correctly as drinking enough or not using both the European Food Safety Authority and US recommendations. Conclusion: The Drinks Diary estimate of drinks intake was comparable with direct observation and more accurate (and reliably completed) than staff records. The Drinks Diary can provide a reliable estimate of drinks intake in elderly care home residents physically and cognitively able to complete it. It may be useful for researchers, care staff and practitioners needing to monitor drinks intake of elderly people, to help them avoid dehydration

Theory and observations of ice particle evolution in cirrus using Doppler radar: evidence for aggregation

Vertically pointing Doppler radar has been used to study the evolution of ice particles as they sediment through a cirrus cloud. The measured Doppler fall speeds, together with radar-derived estimates for the altitude of cloud top, are used to estimate a characteristic fall time tc for the `average' ice particle. The change in radar reflectivity Z is studied as a function of tc, and is found to increase exponentially with fall time. We use the idea of dynamically scaling particle size distributions to show that this behaviour implies exponential growth of the average particle size, and argue that this exponential growth is a signature of ice crystal aggregation.Comment: accepted to Geophysical Research Letter

Influence of climatic variables on crown condition in pine forests of Northern Spain

Producción CientíficaThe aim of this study was to find relationships between crown condition and some climatic parameters to identify which are those having a main influence on crown condition, and how this influence is shown in the tree (crown transparency), and to contribute to the understanding of how these parameters will affect under future climate change scenarios

EFSA NDA Panel (EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies), 2013. Scientific Opinion on nutrient requirements and dietary intakes of infants and young children in the European Union.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies (NDA) was asked to deliver a Scientific Opinion on the nutrient requirements and dietary intakes of infants and young children in the European Union. This Opinion describes the dietary requirements of infants and young children, compares dietary intakes and requirements in infants and young children in Europe and, based on these findings, concludes on the potential role of young-child formulae in the diets of infants and young children, including whether they have any nutritional benefits when compared with other foods that may be included in the normal diet of infants and young children. The Panel concluded on the levels of nutrient and energy intakes that are considered adequate for the majority of infants and young children, and evaluated the risk of inadequate nutrient intakes in infants and young children in living Europe. Dietary intakes of alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), iron, vitamin D and iodine (in some European countries) are low in infants and young children living in Europe, and particular attention should be paid to ensuring an appropriate supply of ALA, DHA, iron, vitamin D and iodine in infants and young children with inadequate or at risk of inadequate status of these nutrients. No unique role of young -child formulae with respect to the provision of critical nutrients in the diet of infants and young children living in Europe can be identified, so that they cannot be considered as a necessity to satisfy the nutritional requirements of young children when compared with other foods that may be included in the normal diet of young children (such as breast milk, infant formulae, follow-on formulae and cow\u2018s milk)