Model simulations of the changing distribution of Ozone and its radiative forcing of climate: past, present and future

A background tropospheric chemistry model that is coupled to the general circulation model ECHAM4 is used to calculate tropospheric ozone with preindustrial, present-day and future (IS92a) emission scenarios as boundary conditions. The model calculates separate contributions to tropospheric ozone levels from stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and from photo- chemical production in the troposphere. In the preindustrial atmosphere, the simulated annual tropospheric ozone content is 190 Tg 03, of which about 110 Tg 03 originates from the strato- sphere. In the present-day simulation the ozone content is about 80 Tg 03 larger, mainly due to O3 precursor emissions from industrial processes in the NH and from biomass burning in trop- ical regions. In the next few decades, industrial growth is expected to occur mainly at NH (sub) tropical latitudes, leading to an additional increase of the tropospheric ozone budget by 60 Tg 03. We calculate a global and annual average radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone perturbations of 0.42 w m-2 creases in the next few decades of 0.31 W m-2 for the present-day simulation, and an additional forcing due to ozone in- The model results indicate that the amount of tropospheric ozone from stratospheric origin remains relatively unaffected by the changing pho- tochemistry

Total and tropospheric ozone changes: observations and numerical modelling

A survey has been made of total and tropospheric ozone dynamics in the context of its impacts on climate, human health and ecosystems. Observation data on total ozone content (TOZ) in the atmosphere and relevant numerical modelling results have been discussed as well as similar information for tropospheric ozone, whose formation and changes are being determined by quite different causes. A necessity has been emphasized to get more adequate global observational data on TOZ and tropospheric ozone (this is especially important in the latter case, because information on tropospheric ozone is far from being complete). Unsolved problems relevant to both total and tropospheric ozone have been briefly considered

Total and tropospheric ozone changes: observations and numerical modelling

A survey has been made of total and tropospheric ozone dynamics in the context of its impacts on climate, human health and ecosystems. Observation data on total ozone content (TOZ) in the atmosphere and relevant numerical modelling results have been discussed as well as similar information for tropospheric ozone, whose formation and changes are being determined by quite different causes. A necessity has been emphasized to get more adequate global observational data on TOZ and tropospheric ozone (this is especially important in the latter case, because information on tropospheric ozone is far from being complete). Unsolved problems relevant to both total and tropospheric ozone have been briefly considered

Changes in Tropospheric Ozone Associated With Strong Earthquakes and Possible Mechanism

The index of ozone anomaly (IOA) has been proposed to detect changes in tropospheric ozone associated with strong earthquakes. The tropospheric ozone prior and after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake has been analyzed using IOA. Atmospheric infrared sounder ozone volume mixing ratio (O3 VMR) at different pressure levels (600, 500, 400, 300, 200 hPa) for an 18-year period 2003–2020 has been considered to identify the unique behavior associated with the strong earthquakes. Our results show distinct enhancement in tropospheric ozone occurred 5 d (7 May 2008) prior to the main event and distributed along the Longmenshan fault zone. An enhancement in IOA has also been observed around the time of the 2013 Lushan and 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, but with the different emergence time, which indicates that the unusual behavior of tropospheric ozone depends on the tectonic and geological environment, focal mechanism, focal depth, meteorological conditions, and other factors. The location of increased tropospheric ozone indicates the epicenter of earthquakes. The magnitude of earthquake could be one of the important factors affecting the appearance of the anomalous tropospheric ozone. The possible mechanism for the increased tropospheric ozone associated with strong earthquakes is discussed in this article. The quasi-synchronous changes of tropospheric ozone and other parameters in the lithosphere/atmosphere/ionosphere have been found by combining with the other published results related to the Wenchuan earthquake, which show the existence of coupling during the earthquake preparation phase associated with the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling

Satellite constraint on the tropospheric ozone radiative effect

Tropospheric ozone directly affects the radiative balance of the Earth through interaction with shortwave and longwave radiation. Here we use measurements of tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer satellite instrument, together with chemical transport and radiative transfer models, to produce a first estimate of the stratospherically adjusted annual radiative effect (RE) of tropospheric ozone. We show that differences between modeled and observed ozone concentrations have little impact on the RE, indicating that our present-day tropospheric ozone RE estimate of 1.17 ± 0.03 W m−2 is robust. The RE normalized by column ozone decreased between the preindustrial and the present-day. Using a simulation with historical biomass burning and no anthropogenic emissions, we calculate a radiative forcing of 0.32 W m−2 for tropospheric ozone, within the current best estimate range. We propose a radiative kernel approach as an efficient and accurate tool for calculating ozone REs in simulations with similar ozone abundances

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for the problem being addressed, whether biases can be tolerated or corrected, whether the model is appropriately constituted, and whether there is a way to satisfactorily quantify the uncertainty

The global consequences of increasing tropospheric ozone concentrations

Recent analyses of long term records of tropospheric ozone measurements in the Northern Hemisphere suggest that it is increasing at a rate of 1 to 2 percent per year. Because of this, it is argued that the amount of atmospheric warming due to increasing tropospheric ozone is comparable to, or possibly even greater than, the amount of warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide. Unlike all other climatically important trace gases, ozone is toxic, and increases in its concentration will result in serious environmental damage, as well as impairment of human health

The vertical distribution of ozone instantaneous radiative forcing from satellite and chemistry climate models

We evaluate the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) of tropospheric ozone predicted by four state-of-the-art global chemistry climate models (AM2-Chem, CAM-Chem, ECHAM5-MOZ, and GISS-PUCCINI) against ozone distribution observed from the NASA Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) during August 2006. The IRF is computed through the application of an observationally constrained instantaneous radiative forcing kernels (IRFK) to the difference between TES and model-predicted ozone. The IRFK represent the sensitivity of outgoing longwave radiation to the vertical and spatial distribution of ozone under all-sky condition. Through this technique, we find total tropospheric IRF biases from -0.4 to + 0.7 W/m(2) over large regions within the tropics and midlatitudes, due to ozone differences over the region in the lower and middle troposphere, enhanced by persistent bias in the upper troposphere-lower stratospheric region. The zonal mean biases also range from -30 to + 50 mW/m(2) for the models. However, the ensemble mean total tropospheric IRF bias is less than 0.2 W/m(2) within the entire troposphere