Approximate strategic reasoning through hierarchical reduction of large symmetric games

To deal with exponential growth in the size of a game with the number of agents, we propose an approximation based on a hierarchy of reduced games. The reduced game achieves sav-ings by restricting the number of agents playing any strategy to fixed multiples. We validate the idea through experiments on randomly generated local-effect games. An extended ap-plication to strategic reasoning about a complex trading sce-nario motivates the approach, and demonstrates methods for game-theoretic reasoning over incompletely-specified games at multiple levels of granularity

An experimental study of Quartets MaxCut and other supertree methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Supertree methods represent one of the major ways by which the Tree of Life can be estimated, but despite many recent algorithmic innovations, matrix representation with parsimony (MRP) remains the main algorithmic supertree method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We evaluated the performance of several supertree methods based upon the Quartets MaxCut (QMC) method of Snir and Rao and showed that two of these methods usually outperform MRP and five other supertree methods that we studied, under many realistic model conditions. However, the QMC-based methods have scalability issues that may limit their utility on large datasets. We also observed that taxon sampling impacted supertree accuracy, with poor results obtained when all of the source trees were only sparsely sampled. Finally, we showed that the popular optimality criterion of minimizing the total topological distance of the supertree to the source trees is only weakly correlated with supertree topological accuracy. Therefore evaluating supertree methods on biological datasets is problematic.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results show that supertree methods that improve upon MRP are possible, and that an effort should be made to produce scalable and robust implementations of the most accurate supertree methods. Also, because topological accuracy depends upon taxon sampling strategies, attempts to construct very large phylogenetic trees using supertree methods should consider the selection of source tree datasets, as well as supertree methods. Finally, since supertree topological error is only weakly correlated with the supertree's topological distance to its source trees, development and testing of supertree methods presents methodological challenges.</p

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Benchmark datasets and software for developing and testing methods for large-scale multiple sequence alignment and phylogenetic inference

We have assembled a collection of web pages that contain benchmark datasets and software tools to enable the evaluation of the accuracy and scalability of computational methods for estimating evolutionary relationships. They provide a resource to the scientific community for development of new alignment and tree inference methods on very difficult datasets. The datasets are intended to help address three problems: multiple sequence alignment, phylogeny estimation given aligned sequences, and supertree estimation. Datasets from our work include empirical datasets with carefully curated alignments suitable for testing alignment and phylogenetic methods for large-scale systematics studies. Links to other empirical datasets, lacking curated alignments, are also provided. We also include simulated datasets with properties typical of large-scale systematics studies, including high rates of substitutions and indels, and we include the true alignment and tree for each simulated dataset. Finally, we provide links to software tools for generating simulated datasets, and for evaluating the accuracy of alignments and trees estimated on these datasets. We welcome contributions to the benchmark datasets from other researchers

SuperFineSource

This zipped archive contains source code necessary for installing and running SuperFine

Data from: SuperFine: fast and accurate supertree estimation

Many research groups are estimating trees containing anywhere from a few thousand to hundreds of thousands of species, towards the eventual goal of the estimation of a Tree of Life, containing perhaps as many as several million leaves. These phylogenetic estimations present enormous computational challenges, and current computational methods are likely to fail to run even on datasets in the low end of this range. One approach to estimate a large species tree is to use phylogenetic estimation methods (such as maximum likelihood) on a supermatrix produced by concatenating multiple sequence alignments for a collection of markers; however, the most accurate of these phylogenetic estimation methods are extremely computationally intensive for datasets with more than a few thousand sequences. Supertree methods, which assemble phylogenetic trees from a collection of trees on subsets of the taxa, are important tools for phylogeny estimation where phylogenetic analyses based upon maximum likelihood are infeasible. In this paper, we introduce SuperFine, a meta-method that utilizes a novel two-step procedure in order to improve the accuracy and scalability of supertree methods. Our study, using both simulated and empirical data, shows that SuperFine-boosted supertree methods produce more accurate trees than standard supertree methods, and run quickly on very datasets with thousands of sequences. Furthermore, SuperFine-boosted MRP (Matrix Representation with Parsimony, the most well known supertree method) approaches the accuracy of maximum likelihood methods on supermatrix datasets under realistic conditions

Searching for walverine 2005

We systematically explore a range of variations of our TAC travel-shopping agent, Walverine. The space of strategies is defined by settings to behavioral parameter values. Our empirical gametheoretic analysis is facilitated by approximating games through hierarchical reduction methods.