Long-Term Yield Prediction of Greenhouse Sweet Pepper Crops

In this paper, a new model for predicting the yield of greenhouse sweet peppers (Capsicum annuum L.) is presented. The model can provide long-term prediction up to 7 weeks in advance with the same accuracy it can predict yield one week in advance. It uses both past and expected environmental readings as well as physiological data as input to a specially designed artificial neural network. The model was tested using 4 years of data that was obtained from commercial pepper growers. Short-term prediction accuracy (one week) is consistent with other predictive models in the literature for sweet peppers. This validates our long-term results

Маркетинговий підхід до визначення основних показників економічної ефективності гепатотропного лікарського засобу

Aim. To substantiate the expediency of development of an arginine-based hepatotropic drug using prognostic determination of the main indicators of economic efficiency.Materials and methods. The legislative and regulatory base, data of the Morion information and retrieval system for 2013-2017, special literature and the results of the authors’ previous studies were used. The cost and rentability (R) of the drug manufacture, the amount of cash flows in three main variants of the project development, the discounted pay-back period (DPB) and the return on investment (ROI) were calculated. The historical, logical, marketing, and mathematical-statistical methods of research were used.Results. Development of new drugs requires large amounts of money (from tens or hundreds of millions to 1-3 billion USD) for a significant period of time (from 3-4 to 10-14 years). The availability of the population to a drug increases in conditions of its sufficient production and prices acceptable to consumers. This is ensured by the presence of several manufacturers of a similar drug at the market. Arginine-based drugs have been found to have a wide range of pharmacological effects, forming a large potential volume of the market segment of the drug. The basic indicators of the economic efficiency of development of the arginine-based drug and marketing indicators of the market characteristics of the drug have been determined. Cash flows of income have been analyzed; and the terms of the return of discounted investments into the project in three variants of development of market events have been determined. The results of calculations on the basis of the marketing approach to the comprehensive market analysis of the characteristics of the arginine-based drug have confirmed the economic efficiency and investment attractiveness of the project.Conclusions. The research on determining of the main indicators of the project economic efficiency has shown the feasibility of developing and introducing the arginine-based drug into the production assortment, as well as investment attractiveness of the project. Цель: обоснование целесообразности разработки гепатотропного лекарственного средства на основе аргинина с использованием прогнозного определения основных экономических и маркетинговых показателей эффективности.Материалы и та методы: данные законодательно-нормативной базы, информационно-поисковой системы «Морион» за 2013-2017 гг., специальной литературы и собственные исследования; исторический, логический, маркетинговые и математико-статистические методы исследований; рассчитывались себестоимость и рентабельность производства лекарственных средств (ЛС) (R), суммы денежных потоков в трех основных вариантах развития событий реализации проекта, дисконтованый срок возврата инвестиций (DPB), доходность инвестированного капитала (ROI).Результаты исследований. Разработка новых ЛС требует больших денежных средств (от десятков или сотен млн до 1-3 млрд дол. США) на значительный период времени (от 3-4 до 10-14 лет). Доступность населения к ЛС повышается при условии его достаточного производства и приемлемой для потребителя цены, что подкрепляется наличием нескольких производителей аналогичного препарата. Установлено, что ЛС на основе аргинина имеют широкий спектр фармакологического действия, за счет которого формируется большая емкость товарного сегмента препарата. Определены основные показатели экономической эффективности разработок, маркетинговые показатели рыночных характеристик препарата, проанализированы денежные потоки доходов и установлены сроки возврата дисконтированных инвестиционных вложений в проект согласно трем вариантам развития рыночных событий. Результаты расчетов на основе маркетингового подхода к комплексному рыночному анализу характеристик ЛС на основе аргинина подтвердили экономическую эффективность и инвестиционную привлекательность проекта.Выводы. Проведенное авторами исследование по определению основных экономических показателей проекта показало целесообразность разработки и введения в ассортимент лекарственного средства на основе аргинина и инвестиционную привлекательность проекта.Мета: обґрунтування доцільності розробки гепатотропного лікарського засобу на основі аргініну з використанням прогностичного визначення основних показників економічної ефективності.Матеріали та методи: дані законодавчо-нормативної бази, інформаційно-пошукової системи «Моріон» за 2013-2017 рр., спеціальної літератури та власні дослідження; історичний, логічний, маркетингові та математико-статистичні методи досліджень; розраховувалися собівартість та рентабельність виробництва лікарських засобів (ЛЗ) (R), суми грошових потоків у трьох основних варіантах розвитку подій реалізації проекту, дисконтований термін повернення інвестицій (DPB), доходність інвестованого капіталу (ROI).Результати досліджень. Розробка нових ЛЗ потребує великих грошових коштів (від десятків або сотень млн до 1-3 млрд дол. США) на значний період часу (від 3-4 до 10-14 років). Доступність населення до ЛЗ підвищується в умовах його достатнього виробництва і прийнятної для споживача ціни, що підкріплюється наявністю кількох виробників аналогічного препарату. Установлено, що ЛЗ на основі аргініну мають широкий спектр фармакологічної дії, за рахунок якого формується велика потенційна ємність товарного сегмента ринку препарату. Визначено основні показники економічної ефективності розробок ЛЗ на основі аргініну, маркетингові показники ринкових характеристик препарату, проаналізовано грошові потоки доходів та установлено терміни повернення дисконтованих інвестиційних вкладів у проект за трьома варіантами розвитку ринкових подій. Результати розрахунків на основі маркетингового підходу до комплексного ринкового аналізу характеристик ЛЗ на основі аргініну підтвердили економічну ефективність та інвестиційну привабливість проекту.Висновки. Проведене авторами дослідження щодо визначення основних показників економічної ефективності проекту показало доцільність розробки й уведення в асортимент лікарського засобу на основі аргініну та інвестиційну привабливість проекту

Implicit Sensing in Traffic Optimization: Advanced Deep Reinforcement Learning Techniques

A sudden roadblock on highways due to many reasons such as road maintenance, accidents, and car repair is a common situation we encounter almost daily. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) equipped with sensors that can acquire vehicle dynamics such as speed, acceleration, and location can make intelligent decisions to change lanes before reaching a roadblock. A number of literature studies have examined car-following models and lane-changing models. However, only a few studies proposed an integrated car-following and lane-changing model, which has the potential to model practical driving maneuvers. Hence, in this paper, we present an integrated car-following and lane-changing decision-control system based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to address this issue. Specifically, we consider a scenario where sudden construction work will be carried out along a highway. We model the scenario as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and employ the well-known DQN algorithm to train the RL agent to make the appropriate decision accordingly (i.e., either stay in the same lane or change lanes). To overcome the delay and computational requirement of DRL algorithms, we adopt an MEC-assisted architecture where the RL agents are trained on MEC servers. We utilize the highly reputable SUMO simulator and OPENAI GYM to evaluate the performance of the proposed model under two policies; {\epsilon}-greedy policy and Boltzmann policy. The results unequivocally demonstrate that the DQN agent trained using the {\epsilon}-greedy policy significantly outperforms the one trained with the Boltzmann policy

Обґрунтування маркетингових рішень і підходів до підвищення ринкового потенціалу гепатотропного лікарського засобу

Aim. To substantiate and determine the components of marketing decisions in marketing activities in order to increase the market potential of a hepatotropic drug and increase its sales volumes.Materials and methods. Scientific publications, own research and results of monitoring of the retail market of medicines of the “Pharmstandard” system of the company “Morion” were used as materials; such methods as generalization, systematization of theoretical and practical material, and marketing analysis were applied.Results. The generalization of scientific literature data on the relationship between the drug market potential with the general potential of a pharmaceutical enterprise, and the market potential of the drug pharmacotherapeutic group has been carried out. The approaches, tools and marketing decisions were proposed for intensification of the market potential of a hepatotropic drug under the conditional name Argiliv after 2022. Marketing decisions concerning the identification of target audiences and positioning of the drug, directions and tasks for work with target audiences, strategic and tactical goals, the criteria for the effectiveness of marketing communications, and directions of budget planning for marketing communications have been substantiated. Conclusions. The importance and necessity of using marketing decisions and tools in the strategy of the marketing activity of a pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprise has been substantiated to increase the drug market potential in order to expand the target audience and increase sales volumes.Цель: обоснование и определение составляющих маркетинговых решений при реализации маркетинговой деятельности с целью повышения рыночного потенциала гепатотропного лекарственного средства (ЛС) и увеличения объемов его продаж.Материалы и методы: научные публикации, собственные исследования и результаты мониторинга розничного рынка лекарств системы «Фармстандарт» компании «Морион»; методы обобщения, систематизации теоретического и практического материала, маркетингового анализа.Результаты исследований. Проведено обобщение данных научной литературы о взаимосвязи рыночного потенциала ЛС с общим потенциалом фармацевтического предприятия и потенциалом рынка фармакотерапевтической группы ЛС. Предложенные подходы, инструменты и маркетинговые решения для усиления рыночного потенциала гепатотропного ЛС под условным названием «Аргилив» после 2022 г. Обоснованы маркетинговые решения по определению целевых аудиторий и позиционирования ЛС, направлений и задач по работе с целевыми аудиториями, стратегических и тактических целей, критериев эффективности маркетинговых коммуникаций, направлений планирования бюджета маркетинговых коммуникаций.Выводы. Обоснованы важность и необходимость использования маркетинговых решений и инструментария в стратегии маркетинговой деятельности фармацевтического производственного предприятия для повышения рыночного потенциала ЛС с целью расширения целевой аудитории и увеличения объемов продаж.Мета: обґрунтування та визначення складових маркетингових рішень при реалізації маркетингової діяльності з метою підвищення ринкового потенціалу гепатотропного лікарського засобу (ЛЗ) та збільшення обсягів його продажів.Матеріали та методи: наукові публікації, власні дослідження та результати моніторингу роздрібного ринку ліків системи «Фармстандарт» компанії «Моріон»; методи узагальнення, систематизації теоретичного і практичного матеріалу, маркетингового аналізу. Результати досліджень. Проведено узагальнення даних наукової літератури щодо взаємозв’язку ринкового потенціалу ЛЗ із загальним потенціалом фармацевтичного підприємства і потенціалом ринку фармакотерапевтичної групи ЛЗ. Запропоновано підходи, інструменти і маркетингові рішення для посилення ринкового потенціалу гепатотропного ЛЗ під умовною назвою «Аргілів» після 2022 р. Обґрунтовано маркетингові рішення щодо визначення цільових аудиторій і позиціонування ЛЗ, напрямків і завдань із роботи з цільовими аудиторіями, стратегічних і тактичних цілей, критеріїв ефективності маркетингових комунікацій, напрямків планування бюджету маркетингових комунікацій. Висновки. Обґрунтовано важливість і необхідність використання маркетингових рішень й інструментарію у стратегії маркетингової діяльності фармацевтичного виробничого підприємства для підвищення ринкового потенціалу ЛЗ із метою розширення цільової аудиторії та збільшення обсягів продажів

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection