Estimating the costs of air pollution to the National Health Service and social care : An assessment and forecast up to 2035

BACKGROUND: Air pollution damages health by promoting the onset of some non-communicable diseases (NCDs), putting additional strain on the National Health Service (NHS) and social care. This study quantifies the total health and related NHS and social care cost burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in England. METHOD AND FINDINGS: Air pollutant concentration surfaces from land use regression models and cost data from hospital admissions data and a literature review were fed into a microsimulation model, that was run from 2015 to 2035. Different scenarios were modelled: (1) baseline 'no change' scenario; (2) individuals' pollutant exposure is reduced to natural (non-anthropogenic) levels to compute the disease cases attributable to PM2.5 and NO2; (3) PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations reduced by 1 μg/m3; and (4) NO2 annual European Union limit values reached (40 μg/m3). For the 18 years after baseline, the total cumulative cost to the NHS and social care is estimated at £5.37 billion for PM2.5 and NO2 combined, rising to £18.57 billion when costs for diseases for which there is less robust evidence are included. These costs are due to the cumulative incidence of air-pollution-related NCDs, such as 348,878 coronary heart disease cases estimated to be attributable to PM2.5 and 573,363 diabetes cases estimated to be attributable to NO2 by 2035. Findings from modelling studies are limited by the conceptual model, assumptions, and the availability and quality of input data. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 2.5 million cases of NCDs attributable to air pollution are predicted by 2035 if PM2.5 and NO2 stay at current levels, making air pollution an important public health priority. In future work, the modelling framework should be updated to include multi-pollutant exposure-response functions, as well as to disaggregate results by socioeconomic status

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Nos2 Inactivation Promotes the Development of Medulloblastoma in Ptch1+/− Mice by Deregulation of Gap43–Dependent Granule Cell Precursor Migration

Medulloblastoma is the most common malignant brain tumor in children. A subset of medulloblastoma originates from granule cell precursors (GCPs) of the developing cerebellum and demonstrates aberrant hedgehog signaling, typically due to inactivating mutations in the receptor PTCH1, a pathomechanism recapitulated in Ptch1+/− mice. As nitric oxide may regulate GCP proliferation and differentiation, we crossed Ptch1+/− mice with mice lacking inducible nitric oxide synthase (Nos2) to investigate a possible influence on tumorigenesis. We observed a two-fold higher medulloblastoma rate in Ptch1+/− Nos2−/− mice compared to Ptch1+/− Nos2+/+ mice. To identify the molecular mechanisms underlying this finding, we performed gene expression profiling of medulloblastomas from both genotypes, as well as normal cerebellar tissue samples of different developmental stages and genotypes. Downregulation of hedgehog target genes was observed in postnatal cerebellum from Ptch1+/+ Nos2−/− mice but not from Ptch1+/− Nos2−/− mice. The most consistent effect of Nos2 deficiency was downregulation of growth-associated protein 43 (Gap43). Functional studies in neuronal progenitor cells demonstrated nitric oxide dependence of Gap43 expression and impaired migration upon Gap43 knock-down. Both effects were confirmed in situ by immunofluorescence analyses on tissue sections of the developing cerebellum. Finally, the number of proliferating GCPs at the cerebellar periphery was decreased in Ptch1+/+ Nos2−/− mice but increased in Ptch1+/− Nos2−/− mice relative to Ptch1+/− Nos2+/+ mice. Taken together, these results indicate that Nos2 deficiency promotes medulloblastoma development in Ptch1+/− mice through retention of proliferating GCPs in the external granular layer due to reduced Gap43 expression. This study illustrates a new role of nitric oxide signaling in cerebellar development and demonstrates that the localization of pre-neoplastic cells during morphogenesis is crucial for their malignant progression

A Biphasic and Brain-Region Selective Down-Regulation of Cyclic Adenosine Monophosphate Concentrations Supports Object Recognition in the Rat

Background: We aimed to further understand the relationship between cAMP concentration and mnesic performance. Methods and Findings: Rats were injected with milrinone (PDE3 inhibitor, 0.3 mg/kg, i.p.), rolipram (PDE4 inhibitor, 0.3 mg/ kg, i.p.) and/or the selective 5-HT4R agonist RS 67333 (1 mg/kg, i.p.) before testing in the object recognition paradigm. Cyclic AMP concentrations were measured in brain structures linked to episodic-like memory (i.e. hippocampus, prefrontal and perirhinal cortices) before or after either the sample or the testing phase. Except in the hippocampus of rolipram treated-rats, all treatment increased cAMP levels in each brain sub-region studied before the sample phase. After the sample phase, cAMP levels were significantly increased in hippocampus (1.8 fold), prefrontal (1.3 fold) and perirhinal (1.3 fold) cortices from controls rat while decreased in prefrontal cortex (,0.83 to 0.62 fold) from drug-treated rats (except for milrinone+RS 67333 treatment). After the testing phase, cAMP concentrations were still increased in both the hippocampus (2.76 fold) and the perirhinal cortex (2.1 fold) from controls animals. Minor increase were reported in hippocampus and perirhinal cortex from both rolipram (respectively, 1.44 fold and 1.70 fold) and milrinone (respectively 1.46 fold and 1.56 fold)-treated rat. Following the paradigm, cAMP levels were significantly lower in the hippocampus, prefrontal and perirhinal cortices from drug-treated rat when compared to controls animals, however, only drug-treated rats spent longer time exploring the novel object during the testing phase (inter-phase interval of 4 h)

Exploration of Shared Genetic Architecture Between Subcortical Brain Volumes and Anorexia Nervosa

In MRI scans of patients with anorexia nervosa (AN), reductions in brain volume are often apparent. However, it is unknown whether such brain abnormalities are influenced by genetic determinants that partially overlap with those underlying AN. Here, we used a battery of methods (LD score regression, genetic risk scores, sign test, SNP effect concordance analysis, and Mendelian randomization) to investigate the genetic covariation between subcortical brain volumes and risk for AN based on summary measures retrieved from genome-wide association studies of regional brain volumes (ENIGMA consortium, n = 13,170) and genetic risk for AN (PGC-ED consortium, n = 14,477). Genetic correlations ranged from − 0.10 to 0.23 (all p > 0.05). There were some signs of an inverse concordance between greater thalamus volume and risk for AN (permuted p = 0.009, 95% CI: [0.005, 0.017]). A genetic variant in the vicinity of ZW10, a gene involved in cell division, and neurotransmitter and immune system relevant genes, in particular DRD2, was significantly associated with AN only after conditioning on its association with caudate volume (pFDR = 0.025). Another genetic variant linked to LRRC4C, important in axonal and synaptic development, reached significance after conditioning on hippocampal volume (pFDR = 0.021). In this comprehensive set of analyses and based on the largest available sample sizes to date, there was weak evidence for associations between risk for AN and risk for abnormal subcortical brain volumes at a global level (that is, common variant genetic architecture), but suggestive evidence for effects of single genetic markers. Highly powered multimodal brain- and disorder-related genome-wide studies are needed to further dissect the shared genetic influences on brain structure and risk for AN

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Adaptations of lateral hand movements to early and late visual occlusion in catching

Contains fulltext : 139154.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)Recent studies suggested that the control of hand movements in catching involves continuous vision-based adjustments. More insight into these adjustments may be gained by examining the effects of occluding different parts of the ball trajectory. Here, we examined the effects of such occlusion on lateral hand movements when catching balls approaching from different directions, with the occlusion conditions presented in blocks or in randomized order. The analyses showed that late occlusion only had an effect during the blocked presentation, and early occlusion only during the randomized presentation. During the randomized presentation movement biases were more leftward if the preceding trial was an early occlusion trial. The effect of early occlusion during the randomized presentation suggests that the observed leftward movement bias relates to the rightward visual acceleration inherent to the ball trajectories used, while its absence during the blocked presentation seems to reflect trial-by-trial adaptations in the visuomotor gain, reminiscent of dynamic gain control in the smooth pursuit system. The movement biases during the late occlusion block were interpreted in terms of an incomplete motion extrapolation—a reduction of the velocity gain—caused by the fact that participants never saw the to-be-extrapolated part of the ball trajectory. These results underscore that continuous movement adjustments for catching do not only depend on visual information, but also on visuomotor adaptations based on non-visual information.14 p

Advance knowledge effects on kinematics of one-handed catching

The purpose of this experiment was to examine the effects of advance knowledge on the kinematics of one-handed catching. Balls were launched from a distance of 8.4 m by a ball-projection machine with adjustable launching speed. Fifteen skilled ball catchers caught 160 balls with their preferred hand under blocked-order (4 blocks, each comprising 20 trials at 1 of 4 different ball speeds) or random-order (4 blocks, each comprising 20 trials of 4 different ball speeds) conditions. By projecting balls with different ball speeds from a fixed position, it was possible to modify the temporal constraints of the catching task. In both the blocked-order and random-order conditions, catching performance (number of catches, touches and misses) decreased with increasing temporal constraints. Analysis of successful trials indicated that this equal level of catching performance was achieved with different movement kinematics. Specifically, there was a change in movement time, latency, wrist velocity profile, and coefficient of straightness. Based on expectancy of previous trials, movement kinematics was scaled to ball speed in the blocked-order condition whereas in the random-order condition, participants exhibited a more default initial response. However, this latter mode of control was functional in that it increased the likelihood of success for the higher ball speeds while also providing participants with a larger temporal window to negotiate the unexpected temporal constraint on-line for the lowest ball speed