Socio-economic and demographic consequences of migration in Kerala

Migration has been the single most dynamic factor in the otherwise dreary development scenario of Kerala in the last quarter of the past century. Migration has contributed more to poverty alleviation and reduction in unemployment in Kerala than any other factor. As a result of migration, the proportion of population below the poverty line has declined by 12 per cent. The number of unemployed persons - estimated to be only about 13 lakhs in 1998 as against 37 lakhs reported by the Employment Exchanges - has come down by more than 30 per cent. Migration has caused nearly a million married women in Kerala to live away from their husbands. Most of these women, the so-called "Gulf wives" had experienced extreme loneliness to begin with; but they got increasingly burdened with added family responsibilities with the handling of which they had little acquaintance so long as their husbands were with them. But over a period of time, and with a helping hand from abroad over the ISD, most of them came out of their feeling of desolateness. Their sense of autonomy, independent status, management skills and experience in dealing with the world outside their homes - all developed the hard way - would remain with them for the rest of their lives for the benefit of their families and the society at large. In the longrun, the transformation of these one million women would have contributed more to the development of Kerala society than all the temporary euphoria created by foreign remittances and the acquisition of modern gadgetry. Kerala is becoming too much dependant on migration for employment, sustenance, housing, household amenities, institution building, and many other developmental activities. The inherent danger of such dependence is that migration could stop abruptly as was shown by the Kuwait war experience of 1990 with disastrous repercussions for the state. Understanding migration trends and instituting policies to maintain the flow of migration at an even keel is more important today than at any time in the past. Kerala workers seem to be losing out in the international competition for jobs in the Gulf market. Corrective policies are urgently needed to raise their competitive edge over workers in the competing countries in the South and the South East Asia. Like any other industry, migration needs periodic technological up-gradation of the workers. Otherwise, there is the danger that Kerala might lose the Gulf market forever. The core of the problem is the Kerala worker's inability to compete with expatriates from other South and South Asian countries. The solution naturally lies in equipping our workers with better general education and job training. This study suggests a two-fold approach - one with a long-term perspective and the other with a short-term perspective. In the short-run, the need is to improve the job skills of the prospective emigrant workers. This is better achieved through ad hoc training programmes focussed on the job market in the Gulf countries. In the long-run, the need is to restructure the whole educational system in the state taking into consideration the future demand for workers not only in Kerala but also in the potential destination countries all over the world, including the USA and other developed countries. Kerala emigrants need not always be construction workers in the Gulf countries; they could as well be software engineers in the developed countries. JEL Classification : J16, J21, J23 Key words : Kerala, emigration, return migration, remittances, gender, demography, elderl

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

The Syrian christians of Kerala: Demographic and socioeconomic transition in the twentieth century

The twentieth century has witnessed a process of significant transition of the Syrian Christian community in Kerala in terms of its demographic and socio-economic status. In this paper, the transition of the demographic structure is discussed in terms of size, composition, geographic distribution and growth rates and the underlying factors of transition comprising fertility, mortality, and migration. Against this background, an attempt is made to present a set of projections of the population of the Syrian Christian community in Kerala till the year 2031. Discussion is made in a comparative setting; the corresponding changes that have come about in the other communities - Hindus, Muslims, and Latin Christians - are also examined.

Gulf revisited: Economic consequences of emigration from Kerala, emigration and unemployment

This Working Paper is about Videsha Malayalikal, or Non-Resident Keralites (NRKs). It provides the size, trend, geographical distribution, socio-economic composition of migrants, and remittances sent back by the migrants. The situation with respect to migration in 2004 is compared with that in 1999. The main focus of the study is, however, the analysis of the social and economic consequences of emigration on Kerala society. What have been the macroeconomic consequences of emigration? What are its impacts on human resources development, employment, unemployment and household consumption patterns? To what extent has the large-scale emigration from the state been beneficial to the Kerala society? Has emigration been a factor in Kerala's high unemployment rate?

Socio-Economic and demographic consequences of migration in Kerala

Migration has been the single most dynamic factor in the otherwise dreary development scenario of Kerala in the last quarter of the past century. Migration has contributed more to poverty alleviation and reduction in unemployment in Kerala than any other factor. As a result of migration, the proportion of population below the poverty line has declined by 12 per cent. The number of unemployed persons - estimated to be only about 13 lakhs in 1998 as against 37 lakhs reported by the Employment Exchanges - has come down by more than 30 per cent. Migration has caused nearly a million married women in Kerala to live away from their husbands. Most of these women, the so-called "Gulf wives" had experienced extreme loneliness to begin with; but they got increasingly burdened with added family responsibilities with the handling of which they had little acquaintance so long as their husbands were with them. But over a period of time, and with a helping hand from abroad over the ISD, most of them came out of their feeling of desolateness. Their sense of autonomy, independent status, management skills and experience in dealing with the world outside their homes - all developed the hard way - would remain with them for the rest of their lives for the benefit of their families and the society at large. In the long-run, the transformation of these one million women would have contributed more to the development of Kerala society than all the temporary euphoria created by foreign remittances and the acquisition of modern gadgetry. Kerala is becoming too much dependant on migration for employment, sustenance, housing, household amenities, institution building, and many other developmental activities. The inherent danger of such dependence is that migration could stop abruptly as was shown by the Kuwait war experience of 1990 with disastrous repercussions for the state. Understanding migration trends and instituting policies to maintain the flow of migration at an even keel is more important today than at any time in the past. Kerala workers seem to be losing out in the international competition for jobs in the Gulf market. Corrective policies are urgently needed to raise their competitive edge over workers in the competing countries in the South and the South East Asia. Like any other industry, migration needs periodic technological up-gradation of the workers. Otherwise, there is the danger that Kerala might lose the Gulf market forever. The core of the problem is the Kerala worker's inability to compete with expatriates from other South and South Asian countries. The solution naturally lies in equipping our workers with better general education and job training. This study suggests a two-fold approach - one with a long-term perspective and the other with a short-term perspective. In the short-run, the need is to improve the job skills of the prospective emigrant workers. This is better achieved through ad hoc training programmes focussed on the job market in the Gulf countries. In the long-run, the need is to restructure the whole educational system in the state taking into consideration the future demand for workers not only in Kerala but also in the potential destination countries all over the world, including the USA and other developed countries. Kerala emigrants need not always be construction workers in the Gulf countries; they could as well be software engineers in the developed countries.Kerala, emigration, return migration, remittances, gender, demography, elderly