A stochastic multi-scale model of HIV-1 transmission for decision-making: application to a MSM population.

BackgroundIn the absence of an effective vaccine against HIV-1, the scientific community is presented with the challenge of developing alternative methods to curb its spread. Due to the complexity of the disease, however, our ability to predict the impact of various prevention and treatment strategies is limited. While ART has been widely accepted as the gold standard of modern care, its timing is debated.ObjectivesTo evaluate the impact of medical interventions at the level of individuals on the spread of infection across the whole population. Specifically, we investigate the impact of ART initiation timing on HIV-1 spread in an MSM (Men who have Sex with Men) population.Design and methodsA stochastic multi-scale model of HIV-1 transmission that integrates within a single framework the in-host cellular dynamics and their outcomes, patient health states, and sexual contact networks. The model captures disease state and progression within individuals, and allows for simulation of therapeutic strategies.ResultsEarly ART initiation may substantially affect disease spread through a population.ConclusionsOur model provides a multi-scale, systems-based approach to evaluate the broader implications of therapeutic strategies

RMP-02/MTN-006: A Phase 1 Rectal Safety, Acceptability, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Tenofovir 1% Gel Compared with Oral Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate

This study was designed to assess the safety, acceptability, pharmacokinetic (PK), and pharmacodynamic (PD) responses to rectal administration of tenofovir (TFV) 1% vaginally formulated gel and oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). This study was designed as a phase 1, randomized, two-site (United States), double-blind, placebo-controlled study of sexually abstinent men and women. Eighteen participants received a single 300-mg exposure of oral TDF and were then randomized 2:1 to receive a single and then seven daily exposures of rectal TFV or hydroxyethyl cellulose (HEC) placebo gel. Safety endpoints included clinical adverse events (AEs) and mucosal safety parameters. Blood and colonic biopsies were collected for PK analyses and ex vivo HIV-1 challenge. No serious AEs were reported. However, AEs were significantly increased with 7-day TFV gel use, most prominently with gastrointestinal AEs (p=0.002). Only 25% of participants liked the TFV gel. Likelihood of use “if somewhat protective” was ∼75% in both groups. Indices of mucosal damage showed minimal changes. Tissue TFV diphosphate (TFV-DP) Cmax 30 min after single rectal exposure was 6–10 times greater than single oral exposure; tissue TFV-DP was 5.7 times greater following 7-day versus single rectal exposure. In vivo exposure correlated with significant ex vivo tissue infectibility suppression [single-rectal: p=0.12, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) p=0.006; 7-day rectal: p=0.02, ANCOVA p=0.005]. Tissue PK–PD was significantly correlated (p=0.002). We conclude that rectal dosing with TFV 1% gel resulted in greater TFV-DP tissue detection than oral dosing with reduced ex vivo biopsy infectibility, enabling PK–PD correlations. On the basis of increased gastrointestinal AEs, rectally applied, vaginally formulated TFV was not entirely safe or acceptable, suggesting the need for alternative rectal-specific formulations

First Phase 1 Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Randomized Rectal Microbicide Trial Using UC781 Gel with a Novel Index of Ex Vivo Efficacy

Objectives: Successful control of the HIV/AIDS pandemic requires reduction of HIV-1 transmission at sexually-exposed mucosae. No prevention studies of the higher-risk rectal compartment exist. We report the first-in-field Phase 1 trial of a rectally-applied, vaginally-formulated microbicide gel with the RT-inhibitor UC781 measuring clinical and mucosal safety, acceptability and plasma drug levels. A first-in-Phase 1 assessment of preliminary pharmacodynamics was included by measuring changes in ex vivo HIV-1 suppression in rectal biopsy tissue after exposure to product in vivo. Methods: HIV-1 seronegative, sexually-abstinent men and women (N = 36) were randomized in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial comparing UC781 gel at two concentrations (0.1%, 0.25%) with placebo gel (1:1:1). Baseline, single-dose exposure and a separate, 7-day at-home dosing were assessed. Safety and acceptability were primary endpoints. Changes in colorectal mucosal markers and UC781 plasma drug levels were secondary endpoints; ex vivo biopsy infectibility was an ancillary endpoint. Results: All 36 subjects enrolled completed the 7-14 week trial (100% retention) including 3 flexible sigmoidoscopies, each with 28 biopsies (14 at 10 cm; 14 at 30 cm). There were 81 Grade 1 adverse events (AEs) and 8 Grade 2; no Grade 3, 4 or procedure-related AEs were reported. Acceptability was high, including likelihood of future use. No changes in mucosal immunoinflammatory markers were identified. Plasma levels of UC781 were not detected. Ex vivo infection of biopsies using two titers of HIV-1 BaL showed marked suppression of p24 in tissues exposed in vivo to 0.25% UC781; strong trends of suppression were seen with the lower 0.1% UC781 concentration. Conclusions: Single and 7-day topical rectal exposure to both concentrations of UC781 were safe with no significant AEs, high acceptability, no detected plasma drug levels and no significant mucosal changes. Ex vivo biopsy infections demonstrated marked suppression of HIV infectibility, identifying a potential early biomarker of efficacy. (Registered at ClinicalTrials.gov; #NCT00408538). © 2011 Anton et al

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Multi-trait genome-wide association study identifies new loci associated with optic disc parameters

A new avenue of mining published genome-wide association studies includes the joint analysis of related traits. The power of this approach depends on the genetic correlation of traits, which reflects the number of pleiotropic loci, i.e. genetic loci influencing multiple traits. Here, we applied new meta-analyses of optic nerve head (ONH) related traits implicated in primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG); intraocular pressure and central corneal thickness using Haplotype reference consortium imputations. We performed a multi-trait analysis of ONH parameters cup area, disc area and vertical cup-disc ratio. We uncover new variants; rs11158547 in PPP1R36-PLEKHG3 and rs1028727 near SERPINE3 at genome-wide significance that replicate in independent Asian cohorts imputed to 1000 Genomes. At this point, validation of these variants in POAG cohorts is hampered by the high degree of heterogeneity. Our results show that multi-trait analysis is a valid approach to identify novel pleiotropic variants for ONH

Multi-trait genome-wide association study identifies new loci associated with optic disc parameters.

Funder: All funders per study are acknowledged in the Supplementary FileA new avenue of mining published genome-wide association studies includes the joint analysis of related traits. The power of this approach depends on the genetic correlation of traits, which reflects the number of pleiotropic loci, i.e. genetic loci influencing multiple traits. Here, we applied new meta-analyses of optic nerve head (ONH) related traits implicated in primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG); intraocular pressure and central corneal thickness using Haplotype reference consortium imputations. We performed a multi-trait analysis of ONH parameters cup area, disc area and vertical cup-disc ratio. We uncover new variants; rs11158547 in PPP1R36-PLEKHG3 and rs1028727 near SERPINE3 at genome-wide significance that replicate in independent Asian cohorts imputed to 1000 Genomes. At this point, validation of these variants in POAG cohorts is hampered by the high degree of heterogeneity. Our results show that multi-trait analysis is a valid approach to identify novel pleiotropic variants for ONH

Notes on estimation of proportion ratio under a non-compliance randomized trial with missing outcomes

When measuring the efficacy of an experimental treatment in dichotomous data, we often employ the proportion ratio () of a positive response (or an adverse event) between the experimental and standard treatments. In this paper, we consider a non-compliance randomized clinical trial with outcomes missing at random (MAR). We derive the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the under the model in which missingness depends only on assigned treatments, and the model in which missingness depends on both assigned and received treatments. We develop three asymptotic interval estimators for the under the latter situation. We apply Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate and compare the performance of these estimators in a variety of situations. We note that the point estimator assuming outcomes missing completely at random (MCAR) can be subject to a serious bias under various models with MAR, and the point estimators developed here may consistently perform reasonably well when the number of patients per assigned treatment is large. We find that the interval estimator using Wald's statistic tends to lose accuracy with respect to the coverage probability, while the interval estimator using the logarithmic transformation tends to lose precision with respect to the average length. We also find that an ad hoc combination of the previous two interval estimators can consistently perform well in many situations. Finally, we use data taken from a multiple risk factor intervention trial for reducing mortality of coronary heart disease to illustrate the bias of the point estimator for MCAR and the use of these point and interval estimators for the under the assumed MAR.