A data-driven study of Alzheimer's disease related amyloid and tau pathology progression

Amyloid-beta is thought to facilitate the spread of tau throughout the neocortex in Alzheimer's disease, though how this occurs is not well understood. This is because of the spatial discordance between amyloid-beta, which accumulates in the neocortex, and tau, which accumulates in the medial temporal lobe during aging. There is evidence that in some cases amyloid-beta-independent tau spreads beyond the medial temporal lobe where it may interact with neocortical amyloid-beta. This suggests that there may be multiple distinct spatiotemporal subtypes of Alzheimer's-related protein aggregation, with potentially different demographic and genetic risk profiles. We investigated this hypothesis, applying data-driven disease progression subtyping models to post-mortem neuropathology and in vivo PET based measures from two large observational studies: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and the Religious Orders Study and Rush Memory and Aging Project. We consistently identified 'amyloid-first' and 'tau-first' subtypes using cross-sectional information from both studies. In the amyloid-first subtype, extensive neocortical amyloid-beta precedes the spread of tau beyond the medial temporal lobe, while in the tau-first subtype mild tau accumulates in medial temporal and neocortical areas prior to interacting with amyloid-beta. As expected, we found a higher prevalence of the amyloid-first subtype among apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele carriers while the tau-first subtype was more common among APOE ε4 non-carriers. Within tau-first APOE ε4 carriers, we found an increased rate of amyloid-beta accumulation (via longitudinal amyloid PET), suggesting that this rare group may belong within the Alzheimer's disease continuum. We also found that tau-first APOE ε4 carriers had several fewer years of education than other groups, suggesting a role for modifiable risk factors in facilitating amyloid-beta-independent tau. Tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, in contrast, recapitulated many of the features of Primary Age-related Tauopathy. The rate of longitudinal amyloid-beta and tau accumulation (both measured via PET) within this group did not differ from normal aging, supporting the distinction of Primary Age-related Tauopathy from Alzheimer's disease. We also found reduced longitudinal subtype consistency within tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, suggesting additional heterogeneity within this group. Our findings support the idea that amyloid-beta and tau may begin as independent processes in spatially disconnected regions, with widespread neocortical tau resulting from the local interaction of amyloid-beta and tau. The site of this interaction may be subtype-dependent: medial temporal lobe in amyloid-first, neocortex in tau-first. These insights into the dynamics of amyloid-beta and tau may inform research and clinical trials that target these pathologies

The temporal event-based model: Learning event timelines in progressive diseases

Timelines of events, such as symptom appearance or a change in biomarker value, provide powerful signatures that characterise progressive diseases. Understanding and predicting the timing of events is important for clinical trials targeting individuals early in the disease course when putative treatments are likely to have the strongest effect. However, previous models of disease progression cannot estimate the time between events and provide only an ordering in which they change. Here, we introduce the temporal event-based model (TEBM), a new probabilistic model for inferring timelines of biomarker events from sparse and irregularly sampled datasets. We demonstrate the power of the TEBM in two neurodegenerative conditions: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Huntington's disease (HD). In both diseases, the TEBM not only recapitulates current understanding of event orderings but also provides unique new ranges of timescales between consecutive events. We reproduce and validate these findings using external datasets in both diseases. We also demonstrate that the TEBM improves over current models; provides unique stratification capabilities; and enriches simulated clinical trials to achieve a power of 80% with less than half the cohort size compared with random selection. The application of the TEBM naturally extends to a wide range of progressive conditions

Uncovering spatiotemporal patterns of atrophy in progressive supranuclear palsy using unsupervised machine learning

To better understand the pathological and phenotypic heterogeneity of progressive supranuclear palsy and the links between the two, we applied a novel unsupervised machine learning algorithm (Subtype and Stage Inference) to the largest MRI data set to date of people with clinically diagnosed progressive supranuclear palsy (including progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson and variant progressive supranuclear palsy syndromes). Our cohort is comprised of 426 progressive supranuclear palsy cases, of which 367 had at least one follow-up scan, and 290 controls. Of the progressive supranuclear palsy cases, 357 were clinically diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson, 52 with a progressive supranuclear palsy-cortical variant (progressive supranuclear palsy-frontal, progressive supranuclear palsy-speech/language, or progressive supranuclear palsy-corticobasal), and 17 with a progressive supranuclear palsy-subcortical variant (progressive supranuclear palsy-parkinsonism or progressive supranuclear palsy-progressive gait freezing). Subtype and Stage Inference was applied to volumetric MRI features extracted from baseline structural (T1-weighted) MRI scans and then used to subtype and stage follow-up scans. The subtypes and stages at follow-up were used to validate the longitudinal consistency of subtype and stage assignments. We further compared the clinical phenotypes of each subtype to gain insight into the relationship between progressive supranuclear palsy pathology, atrophy patterns, and clinical presentation. The data supported two subtypes, each with a distinct progression of atrophy: a 'subcortical' subtype, in which early atrophy was most prominent in the brainstem, ventral diencephalon, superior cerebellar peduncles, and the dentate nucleus, and a 'cortical' subtype, in which there was early atrophy in the frontal lobes and the insula alongside brainstem atrophy. There was a strong association between clinical diagnosis and the Subtype and Stage Inference subtype with 82% of progressive supranuclear palsy-subcortical cases and 81% of progressive supranuclear palsy-Richardson cases assigned to the subcortical subtype and 82% of progressive supranuclear palsy-cortical cases assigned to the cortical subtype. The increasing stage was associated with worsening clinical scores, whilst the 'subcortical' subtype was associated with worse clinical severity scores compared to the 'cortical subtype' (progressive supranuclear palsy rating scale and Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale). Validation experiments showed that subtype assignment was longitudinally stable (95% of scans were assigned to the same subtype at follow-up) and individual staging was longitudinally consistent with 90% remaining at the same stage or progressing to a later stage at follow-up. In summary, we applied Subtype and Stage Inference to structural MRI data and empirically identified two distinct subtypes of spatiotemporal atrophy in progressive supranuclear palsy. These image-based subtypes were differentially enriched for progressive supranuclear palsy clinical syndromes and showed different clinical characteristics. Being able to accurately subtype and stage progressive supranuclear palsy patients at baseline has important implications for screening patients on entry to clinical trials, as well as tracking disease progression

Evaluation of automated airway morphological quantification for assessing fibrosing lung disease

Abnormal airway dilatation, termed traction bronchiectasis, is a typical feature of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Volumetric computed tomography (CT) imaging captures the loss of normal airway tapering in IPF. We postulated that automated quantification of airway abnormalities could provide estimates of IPF disease extent and severity. We propose AirQuant, an automated computational pipeline that systematically parcellates the airway tree into its lobes and generational branches from a deep learning based airway segmentation, deriving airway structural measures from chest CT. Importantly, AirQuant prevents the occurrence of spurious airway branches by thick wave propagation and removes loops in the airway-tree by graph search, overcoming limitations of existing airway skeletonisation algorithms. Tapering between airway segments (intertapering) and airway tortuosity computed by AirQuant were compared between 14 healthy participants and 14 IPF patients. Airway intertapering was significantly reduced in IPF patients, and airway tortuosity was significantly increased when compared to healthy controls. Differences were most marked in the lower lobes, conforming to the typical distribution of IPF-related damage. AirQuant is an open-source pipeline that avoids limitations of existing airway quantification algorithms and has clinical interpretability. Automated airway measurements may have potential as novel imaging biomarkers of IPF severity and disease extent

Endovascular Thrombectomy for Ischemic Stroke Increases Disability-Free Survival, Quality of Life, and Life Expectancy and Reduces Cost

Background: Endovascular thrombectomy improves functional outcome in large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke. We examined disability, quality of life, survival and acute care costs in the EXTEND-IA trial, which used CT-perfusion imaging selection. Methods: Large vessel ischemic stroke patients with favorable CT-perfusion were randomized to endovascular thrombectomy after alteplase versus alteplase-only. Clinical outcome was prospectively measured using 90-day modified Rankin scale (mRS). Individual patient expected survival and net difference in Disability/Quality-adjusted life years (DALY/QALY) up to 15 years from stroke were modeled using age, sex, 90-day mRS, and utility scores. Level of care within the first 90 days was prospectively measured and used to estimate procedure and inpatient care costs (US$reference year 2014). Results: There were 70 patients, 35 in each arm, mean age 69, median NIHSS 15 (IQR 12-19). The median (IQR) disability-weighted utility score at 90 days was 0.65 (0.00-0.91) in the alteplase-only versus 0.91 (0.65-1.00) in the endovascular group (p = 0.005). Modeled life expectancy was greater in the endovascular versus alteplaseonly group (median 15.6 versus 11.2 years, p = 0.02). The endovascular thrombectomy group had fewer simulated DALYs lost over 15 years [median (IQR) 5.5 (3.2-8.7) versus 8.9 (4.7-13.8), p = 0.02] and more QALY gained [median (IQR) 9.3 (4.2-13.1) versus 4.9 (0.3-8.5), p = 0.03]. Endovascular patients spent less time in hospital [median (IQR) 5 (3-11) days versus 8 (5-14) days, p = 0.04] and rehabilitation [median (IQR) 0 (0-28) versus 27 (0-65) days, p = 0.03]. The estimated inpatient costs in the first 90 days were less in the thrombectomy group (average US$15,689 versus US$30,569, p = 0.008) offsetting the costs of interhospital transport and the thrombectomy procedure (average US$10,515). The average saving per patient treated with thrombectomy was US$4,365. c Conclusion: Thrombectomy patients with large vessel occlusion and salvageable tissue on CT-perfusion had reduced length of stay and overall costs to 90 days. There was evidence of clinically relevant improvement in long-term survival and quality of life.Peer reviewe

Burden of cardiovascular diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2015 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

To report the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) during 1990-2015. We used the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study for estimates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of different CVD in 22 countries of EMR. A total of 1.4 million CVD deaths (95% UI: 1.3-1.5) occurred in 2015 in the EMR, with the highest number of deaths in Pakistan (465,116) and the lowest number of deaths in Qatar (723). The age-standardized DALY rate per 100,000 decreased from 10,080 in 1990 to 8606 in 2015 (14.6% decrease). Afghanistan had the highest age-standardized DALY rate of CVD in both 1990 and 2015. Kuwait and Qatar had the lowest age-standardized DALY rates of CVD in 1990 and 2015, respectively. High blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and high body mass index were the leading risk factors for CVD. The age-standardized DALY rates in the EMR are considerably higher than the global average. These findings call for a comprehensive approach to prevent and control the burden of CVD in the region.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders during 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. Methods We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, medication overuse headache, brain and nervous system cancers, and a residual category of other neurological disorders. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility, to identify patterns associated with development and how countries fare against expected outcomes relative to their level of development. Findings Neurological disorders ranked as the leading cause group of DALYs in 2015 (250.7 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 229.1 to 274.7] million, comprising 10.2% of global DALYs) and the second-leading cause group of deaths (9.4 [9.1 to 9.7] million], comprising 16.8% of global deaths). The most prevalent neurological disorders were tensiontype headache (1505 9 [UI 1337.3 to 1681.6 million cases]), migraine (958.8 [872.1 to 1055.6] million), medication overuse headache (58.5 [50.8 to 67.4 million]), and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (46.0 [40.2 to 52.7 million]). Between 1990 and 2015, the number of deaths from neurological disorders increased by 36.7%, and the number of DALYs by 7.4%. These increases occurred despite decreases in age-standardised rates of death and DALYs of 26.1% and 29.7%, respectively; stroke and communicable neurological disorders were responsible for most of these decreases. Communicable neurological disorders were the largest cause of DALYs in countries with low SDI. Stroke rates were highest at middle levels of SDI and lowest at the highest SDI. Most of the changes in DALY rates of neurological disorders with development were driven by changes in YLLs. Interpretation Neurological disorders are an important cause of disability and death worldwide. Globally, the burden of neurological disorders has increased substantially over the past 25 years because of expanding population numbers and ageing, despite substantial decreases in mortality rates from stroke and communicable neurological disorders. The number of patients who will need care by clinicians with expertise in neurological conditions will continue to grow in coming decades. Policy makers and health-care providers should be aware of these trends to provide adequate services.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. INTERPRETATION: TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments