Low-frequency variability in the Gulf of Alaska from coarse and eddy-permitting ocean models

[1] An eddy-permitting ocean model of the northeast Pacific is used to examine the ocean adjustment to changing wind forcing in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) at interannual-to-decadal timescales. It is found that the adjustment of the ocean model in the presence of mesoscale eddies is similar to that obtained with coarse-resolution models. Local Ekman pumping plays a key role in forcing pycnocline depth variability and, to a lesser degree, sea surface height (SSH) variability in the center of the Alaska gyre and in some areas of the eastern and northern GOA. Westward Rossby wave propagation is evident in the SSH field along some latitudes but is less noticeable in the pycnocline depth field. Differences between SSH and pycnocline depth are also found when considering their relationship with the local forcing and leading modes of climate variability in the northeast Pacific. In the central GOA pycnocline depth variations are more clearly related to changes in the local Ekman pumping than SSH. While SSH is marginally correlated with both Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) indices, the pycnocline depth evolution is primarily related to NPGO variability. The intensity of the mesoscale eddy field increases with increasing circulation strength. The eddy field is generally more energetic after the 1976–1977 climate regime shift, when the gyre circulation intensified. In the western basin, where eddies primarily originate from intrinsic instabilities of the flow, variations in eddy kinetic energy are statistically significant correlated with the PDO index, indicating that eddy statistics may be inferred, to some degree, from the characteristics of the large-scale flow

Efficiency and safety of varying the frequency of whole blood donation (INTERVAL): a randomised trial of 45 000 donors

Background: Limits on the frequency of whole blood donation exist primarily to safeguard donor health. However, there is substantial variation across blood services in the maximum frequency of donations allowed. We compared standard practice in the UK with shorter inter-donation intervals used in other countries. Methods: In this parallel group, pragmatic, randomised trial, we recruited whole blood donors aged 18 years or older from 25 centres across England, UK. By use of a computer-based algorithm, men were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 12-week (standard) versus 10-week versus 8-week inter-donation intervals, and women were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 16-week (standard) versus 14-week versus 12-week intervals. Participants were not masked to their allocated intervention group. The primary outcome was the number of donations over 2 years. Secondary outcomes related to safety were quality of life, symptoms potentially related to donation, physical activity, cognitive function, haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and deferrals because of low haemoglobin. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN24760606, and is ongoing but no longer recruiting participants. Findings: 45 263 whole blood donors (22 466 men, 22 797 women) were recruited between June 11, 2012, and June 15, 2014. Data were analysed for 45 042 (99·5%) participants. Men were randomly assigned to the 12-week (n=7452) versus 10-week (n=7449) versus 8-week (n=7456) groups; and women to the 16-week (n=7550) versus 14-week (n=7567) versus 12-week (n=7568) groups. In men, compared with the 12-week group, the mean amount of blood collected per donor over 2 years increased by 1·69 units (95% CI 1·59–1·80; approximately 795 mL) in the 8-week group and by 0·79 units (0·69–0·88; approximately 370 mL) in the 10-week group (p<0·0001 for both). In women, compared with the 16-week group, it increased by 0·84 units (95% CI 0·76–0·91; approximately 395 mL) in the 12-week group and by 0·46 units (0·39–0·53; approximately 215 mL) in the 14-week group (p<0·0001 for both). No significant differences were observed in quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function across randomised groups. However, more frequent donation resulted in more donation-related symptoms (eg, tiredness, breathlessness, feeling faint, dizziness, and restless legs, especially among men [for all listed symptoms]), lower mean haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and more deferrals for low haemoglobin (p<0·0001 for each) than those observed in the standard frequency groups. Interpretation: Over 2 years, more frequent donation than is standard practice in the UK collected substantially more blood without having a major effect on donors' quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function, but resulted in more donation-related symptoms, deferrals, and iron deficiency. Funding: NHS Blood and Transplant, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

In Silico Screening Based on Predictive Algorithms as a Design Tool for Exon Skipping Oligonucleotides in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

The use of antisense 'splice-switching' oligonucleotides to induce exon skipping represents a potential therapeutic approach to various human genetic diseases. It has achieved greatest maturity in exon skipping of the dystrophin transcript in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), for which several clinical trials are completed or ongoing, and a large body of data exists describing tested oligonucleotides and their efficacy. The rational design of an exon skipping oligonucleotide involves the choice of an antisense sequence, usually between 15 and 32 nucleotides, targeting the exon that is to be skipped. Although parameters describing the target site can be computationally estimated and several have been identified to correlate with efficacy, methods to predict efficacy are limited. Here, an in silico pre-screening approach is proposed, based on predictive statistical modelling. Previous DMD data were compiled together and, for each oligonucleotide, some 60 descriptors were considered. Statistical modelling approaches were applied to derive algorithms that predict exon skipping for a given target site. We confirmed (1) the binding energetics of the oligonucleotide to the RNA, and (2) the distance in bases of the target site from the splice acceptor site, as the two most predictive parameters, and we included these and several other parameters (while discounting many) into an in silico screening process, based on their capacity to predict high or low efficacy in either phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomers (89% correctly predicted) and/or 2'O Methyl RNA oligonucleotides (76% correctly predicted). Predictions correlated strongly with in vitro testing for sixteen de novo PMO sequences targeting various positions on DMD exons 44 (R² 0.89) and 53 (R² 0.89), one of which represents a potential novel candidate for clinical trials. We provide these algorithms together with a computational tool that facilitates screening to predict exon skipping efficacy at each position of a target exon

Optimized EGFR blockade strategies in <i>EGFR</i> addicted gastroesophageal adenocarcinomas

Purpose: Gastric and gastroesophageal adenocarcinomas represent the third leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Despite significant therapeutic improvement, the outcome of patients with advanced gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma is poor. Randomized clinical trials failed to show a significant survival benefit in molecularly unselected patients with advanced gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma treated with anti-EGFR agents.Experimental Design: We performed analyses on four cohorts: IRCC (570 patients), Foundation Medicine, Inc. (9,397 patients), COG (214 patients), and the Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori (206 patients). Preclinical trials were conducted in patient-derived xenografts (PDX).Results: The analysis of different gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma patient cohorts suggests that EGFR amplification drives aggressive behavior and poor prognosis. We also observed that EGFR inhibitors are active in patients with EGFR copy-number gain and that coamplification of other receptor tyrosine kinases or KRAS is associated with worse response. Preclinical trials performed on EGFR-amplified gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma PDX models revealed that the combination of an EGFR mAb and an EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) was more effective than each monotherapy and resulted in a deeper and durable response. In a highly EGFR-amplified nonresponding PDX, where resistance to EGFR drugs was due to inactivation of the TSC2 tumor suppressor, cotreatment with the mTOR inhibitor everolimus restored sensitivity to EGFR inhibition.Conclusions: This study underscores EGFR as a potential therapeutic target in gastric cancer and identifies the combination of an EGFR TKI and a mAb as an effective therapeutic approach. Finally, it recognizes mTOR pathway activation as a novel mechanism of primary resistance that can be overcome by the combination of EGFR and mTOR inhibitors

Longer-term efficiency and safety of increasing the frequency of whole blood donation (INTERVAL): extension study of a randomised trial of 20 757 blood donors

Background: The INTERVAL trial showed that, over a 2-year period, inter-donation intervals for whole blood donation can be safely reduced to meet blood shortages. We extended the INTERVAL trial for a further 2 years to evaluate the longer-term risks and benefits of varying inter-donation intervals, and to compare routine versus more intensive reminders to help donors keep appointments. Methods: The INTERVAL trial was a parallel group, pragmatic, randomised trial that recruited blood donors aged 18 years or older from 25 static donor centres of NHS Blood and Transplant across England, UK. Here we report on the prespecified analyses after 4 years of follow-up. Participants were whole blood donors who agreed to continue trial participation on their originally allocated inter-donation intervals (men: 12, 10, and 8 weeks; women: 16, 14, and 12 weeks). They were further block-randomised (1:1) to routine versus more intensive reminders using computer-generated random sequences. The prespecified primary outcome was units of blood collected per year analysed in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes related to safety were quality of life, self-reported symptoms potentially related to donation, haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and deferrals because of low haemoglobin and other factors. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN24760606, and has completed. Findings: Between Oct 19, 2014, and May 3, 2016, 20 757 of the 38 035 invited blood donors (10 843 [58%] men, 9914 [51%] women) participated in the extension study. 10 378 (50%) were randomly assigned to routine reminders and 10 379 (50%) were randomly assigned to more intensive reminders. Median follow-up was 1·1 years (IQR 0·7–1·3). Compared with routine reminders, more intensive reminders increased blood collection by a mean of 0·11 units per year (95% CI 0·04–0·17; p=0·0003) in men and 0·06 units per year (0·01–0·11; p=0·0094) in women. During the extension study, each week shorter inter-donation interval increased blood collection by a mean of 0·23 units per year (0·21–0·25) in men and 0·14 units per year (0·12–0·15) in women (both p&lt;0·0001). More frequent donation resulted in more deferrals for low haemoglobin (odds ratio per week shorter inter-donation interval 1·19 [95% CI 1·15–1·22] in men and 1·10 [1·06–1·14] in women), and lower mean haemoglobin (difference per week shorter inter-donation interval −0·84 g/L [95% CI −0·99 to −0·70] in men and −0·45 g/L [–0·59 to −0·31] in women) and ferritin concentrations (percentage difference per week shorter inter-donation interval −6·5% [95% CI −7·6 to −5·5] in men and −5·3% [–6·5 to −4·2] in women; all p&lt;0·0001). No differences were observed in quality of life, serious adverse events, or self-reported symptoms (p&gt;0.0001 for tests of linear trend by inter-donation intervals) other than a higher reported frequency of doctor-diagnosed low iron concentrations and prescription of iron supplements in men (p&lt;0·0001). Interpretation: During a period of up to 4 years, shorter inter-donation intervals and more intensive reminders resulted in more blood being collected without a detectable effect on donors' mental and physical wellbeing. However, donors had decreased haemoglobin concentrations and more self-reported symptoms compared with the initial 2 years of the trial. Our findings suggest that blood collection services could safely use shorter donation intervals and more intensive reminders to meet shortages, for donors who maintain adequate haemoglobin concentrations and iron stores. Funding: NHS Blood and Transplant, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation

Mechanical properties of the compass depressors of the sea-urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Echinodermata, Echinoidea) and the effects of enzymes, neurotransmitters and synthetic tensilin-like protein

The compass depressors (CDs) of the sea-urchin lantern are ligaments consisting mainly of discontinuous collagen fibrils associated with a small population of myocytes. They are mutable collagenous structures, which can change their mechanical properties rapidly and reversibly under nervous control. The aims of this investigation were to characterise the baseline (i.e. unmanipulated) static mechanical properties of the CDs of Paracentrotus lividus by means of creep tests and incremental force-extension tests, and to determine the effects on their mechanical behaviour of a range of agents. Under constant load the CDs exhibited a three-phase creep curve, the mean coefficient of viscosity being 561±365 MPa.s. The stress-strain curve showed toe, linear and yield regions; the mean strain at the toe-linear inflection was 0.86±0.61; the mean Young's modulus was 18.62±10.30 MPa; and the mean tensile strength was 8.14±5.73 MPa. Hyaluronidase from Streptomyces hyalurolyticus had no effect on creep behaviour, whilst chondroitinase ABC prolonged primary creep but had no effect on secondary creep or on any force-extension parameters; it thus appears that neither hyaluronic acid nor sulphated glycosaminoglycans have an interfibrillar load transfer function in the CD. Acetylcholine, the muscarinic agonists arecoline and methacholine, and the nicotinic agonists nicotine and 1-[1-(3,4-dimethyl-phenyl)-ethyl]-piperazine produced an abrupt increase in CD viscosity; the CDs were not differentially sensitive to muscarinic or nicotinic agonists. CDs showed either no, or no consistent, response to adrenaline, L-glutamic acid, 5-hydroxytryptamine and γ-aminobutyric acid. Synthetic echinoid tensilin-like protein had a weak and inconsistent stiffening effect, indicating that, in contrast to holothurian tensilins, the echinoid molecule may not be involved in the regulation of collagenous tissue tensility. We compare in detail the mechanical behaviour of the CD with that of mammalian tendon and highlight its potential as a model system for investigating poorly understood aspects of the ontogeny and phylogeny of vertebrate collagenous tissues.(undefined)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The future of sensitivity analysis: an essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is en route to becoming an integral part of mathematical modeling. The tremendous potential benefits of SA are, however, yet to be fully realized, both for advancing mechanistic and data-driven modeling of human and natural systems, and in support of decision making. In this perspective paper, a multidisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners revisit the current status of SA, and outline research challenges in regard to both theoretical frameworks and their applications to solve real-world problems. Six areas are discussed that warrant further attention, including (1) structuring and standardizing SA as a discipline, (2) realizing the untapped potential of SA for systems modeling, (3) addressing the computational burden of SA, (4) progressing SA in the context of machine learning, (5) clarifying the relationship and role of SA to uncertainty quantification, and (6) evolving the use of SA in support of decision making. An outlook for the future of SA is provided that underlines how SA must underpin a wide variety of activities to better serve science and society

Roadmap on multimode light shaping

Our ability to generate new distributions of light has been remarkably enhanced in recent years. At the most fundamental level, these light patterns are obtained by ingeniously combining different electromagnetic modes. Interestingly, the modal superposition occurs in the spatial, temporal as well as spatio-temporal domain. This generalized concept of structured light is being applied across the entire spectrum of optics: generating classical and quantum states of light, harnessing linear and nonlinear light-matter interactions, and advancing applications in microscopy, spectroscopy, holography, communication, and synchronization. This Roadmap highlights the common roots of these different techniques and thus establishes links between research areas that complement each other seamlessly. We provide an overview of all these areas, their backgrounds, current research, and future developments. We highlight the power of multimodal light manipulation and want to inspire new eclectic approaches in this vibrant research community.acceptedVersionPeer reviewe