The predictability of monetary policy.

Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be narrowly defined as the ability of the public to anticipate monetary policy decisions correctly over short horizons, the broader, ultimately more meaningful concept of longerterm predictability also encompasses the ability of the private sector to understand the monetary policy framework of a central bank, i.e. its objectives and systematic behaviour in reacting to different circumstances and contingencies. In this broader sense, longer-term predictability is also closely related to the credibility of the central bank. This paper reviews the main conceptual issues relating to predictability, both in its short and longer-term dimensions, and discusses how a transparent monetary policy strategy can be – and indeed has been – instrumental in achieving this purpose. This latter aspect is investigated in an overview of the empirical literature, highlighting how financial markets have been increasingly able to correctly anticipate monetary policy decisions for a number of large central banks, including the ECB. The paper also reviews several possible empirical proxies for the less-explored concept of longer-term predictability, which is inherently more diffi cult to measure. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E61.Predictability, central bank transparency, central bank communication.

Alternative splicing coupled mRNA decay shapes the temperature‐dependent transcriptome

Mammalian body temperature oscillates with the time of the day and is altered in diverse pathological conditions. We recently identified a body temperature‐sensitive thermometer‐like kinase, which alters SR protein phosphorylation and thereby globally controls alternative splicing (AS). AS can generate unproductive variants which are recognized and degraded by diverse mRNA decay pathways—including nonsense‐mediated decay (NMD). Here we show extensive coupling of body temperature‐controlled AS to mRNA decay, leading to global control of temperature‐dependent gene expression (GE). Temperature‐controlled, decay‐inducing splicing events are evolutionarily conserved and pervasively found within RNA‐binding proteins, including most SR proteins. AS‐coupled poison exon inclusion is essential for rhythmic GE of SR proteins and has a global role in establishing temperature‐dependent rhythmic GE profiles, both in mammals under circadian body temperature cycles and in plants in response to ambient temperature changes. Together, these data identify body temperature‐driven AS‐coupled mRNA decay as an evolutionary ancient, core clock‐independent mechanism to generate rhythmic GE

π+\pi^+ photoproduction on the proton for photon energies from 0.725 to 2.875 GeV

Differential cross sections for the reaction $\gamma p \to n \pi^+$ have been measured with the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) and a tagged photon beam with energies from 0.725 to 2.875 GeV. Where available, the results obtained here compare well with previously published results for the reaction. Agreement with the SAID and MAID analyses is found below 1 GeV. The present set of cross sections has been incorporated into the SAID database, and exploratory fits have been made up to 2.7 GeV. Resonance couplings have been extracted and compared to previous determinations. With the addition of these cross sections to the world data set, significant changes have occurred in the high-energy behavior of the SAID cross-section predictions and amplitudes.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure

Photodisintegration of 4^4He into p+t

The two-body photodisintegration of $^4$He into a proton and a triton has been studied using the CEBAF Large-Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) at Jefferson Laboratory. Real photons produced with the Hall-B bremsstrahlung-tagging system in the energy range from 0.35 to 1.55 GeV were incident on a liquid $^4$He target. This is the first measurement of the photodisintegration of $^4$He above 0.4 GeV. The differential cross sections for the $\gamma$$^4$He$\to pt$ reaction have been measured as a function of photon-beam energy and proton-scattering angle, and are compared with the latest model calculations by J.-M. Laget. At 0.6-1.2 GeV, our data are in good agreement only with the calculations that include three-body mechanisms, thus confirming their importance. These results reinforce the conclusion of our previous study of the three-body breakup of $^3$He that demonstrated the great importance of three-body mechanisms in the energy region 0.5-0.8 GeV .Comment: 13 pages submitted in one tgz file containing 2 tex file and 22 postscrip figure

Exclusive Photoproduction of the Cascade (Xi) Hyperons

We report on the first measurement of exclusive Xi-(1321) hyperon photoproduction in gamma p --> K+ K+ Xi- for 3.2 < E(gamma) < 3.9 GeV. The final state is identified by the missing mass in p(gamma,K+ K+)X measured with the CLAS detector at Jefferson Laboratory. We have detected a significant number of the ground-state Xi-(1321)1/2+, and have estimated the total cross section for its production. We have also observed the first excited state Xi-(1530)3/2+. Photoproduction provides a copious source of Xi's. We discuss the possibilities of a search for the recently proposed Xi5-- and Xi5+ pentaquarks.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev.

Photoproduction of mesons off nuclei

Recent results for the photoproduction of mesons off nuclei are reviewed. These experiments have been performed for two major lines of research related to the properties of the strong interaction. The investigation of nucleon resonances requires light nuclei as targets for the extraction of the isospin composition of the electromagnetic excitations. This is done with quasi-free meson photoproduction off the bound neutron and supplemented with the measurement of coherent photoproduction reactions, serving as spin and/or isospin filters. Furthermore, photoproduction from light and heavy nuclei is a very efficient tool for the study of the interactions of mesons with nuclear matter and the in-medium properties of hadrons. Experiments are currently rapidly developing due to the combination of high quality tagged (and polarized) photon beams with state-of-the-art 4pi detectors and polarized targets

Type I IFN enhances follicular B cell contribution to the T cell–independent antibody response

Humoral immunity to viruses and encapsulated bacteria is comprised of T cell–independent type 2 (TI-2) antibody responses that are characterized by rapid antibody production by marginal zone and B1 B cells. We demonstrate that toll-like receptor (TLR) ligands influence the TI-2 antibody response not only by enhancing the overall magnitude but also by skewing this response to one that is dominated by IgG isotypes. Importantly, TLR ligands facilitate this response by inducing type I interferon (IFN), which in turn elicits rapid and significant amounts of antigen-specific IgG2c predominantly from FO (follicular) B cells. Furthermore, we show that although the IgG2c antibody response requires B cell–autonomous IFN-α receptor signaling, it is independent of B cell–intrinsic TLR signaling. Thus, innate signals have the capacity to enhance TI-2 antibody responses by promoting participation of FO B cells, which then elaborate effective IgG anti-pathogen antibodies

First measurement of target and double spin asymmetries for polarized e- polarized p --> e p pi0 in the nucleon resonance region above the Delta(1232)

The exclusive channel polarized proton(polarized e,e prime p)pi0 was studied in the first and second nucleon resonance regions in the Q2 range from 0.187 to 0.770 GeV2 at Jefferson Lab using the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS). Longitudinal target and beam-target asymmetries were extracted over a large range of center-of-mass angles of the pi0 and compared to the unitary isobar model MAID, the dynamic model by Sato and Lee, and the dynamic model DMT. A strong sensitivity to individual models was observed, in particular for the target asymmetry and in the higher invariant mass region. This data set, once included in the global fits of the above models, is expected to place strong constraints on the electrocoupling amplitudes A_{1/2} and S_{1/2} for the Roper resonance N(1400)P11, and the N(1535)S11 and N(1520)D13 states.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figure

Coding Variation in ANGPTL4, LPL, and SVEP1 and the Risk of Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of low-frequency coding variants affecting the risk of coronary artery disease has facilitated the identification of therapeutic targets. METHODS: Through DNA genotyping, we tested 54,003 coding-sequence variants covering 13,715 human genes in up to 72,868 patients with coronary artery disease and 120,770 controls who did not have coronary artery disease. Through DNA sequencing, we studied the effects of loss-of-function mutations in selected genes. RESULTS: We confirmed previously observed significant associations between coronary artery disease and low-frequency missense variants in the genes LPA and PCSK9. We also found significant associations between coronary artery disease and low-frequency missense variants in the genes SVEP1 (p.D2702G; minor-allele frequency, 3.60%; odds ratio for disease, 1.14; P=4.2×10(-10)) and ANGPTL4 (p.E40K; minor-allele frequency, 2.01%; odds ratio, 0.86; P=4.0×10(-8)), which encodes angiopoietin-like 4. Through sequencing of ANGPTL4, we identified 9 carriers of loss-of-function mutations among 6924 patients with myocardial infarction, as compared with 19 carriers among 6834 controls (odds ratio, 0.47; P=0.04); carriers of ANGPTL4 loss-of-function alleles had triglyceride levels that were 35% lower than the levels among persons who did not carry a loss-of-function allele (P=0.003). ANGPTL4 inhibits lipoprotein lipase; we therefore searched for mutations in LPL and identified a loss-of-function variant that was associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease (p.D36N; minor-allele frequency, 1.9%; odds ratio, 1.13; P=2.0×10(-4)) and a gain-of-function variant that was associated with protection from coronary artery disease (p.S447*; minor-allele frequency, 9.9%; odds ratio, 0.94; P=2.5×10(-7)). CONCLUSIONS: We found that carriers of loss-of-function mutations in ANGPTL4 had triglyceride levels that were lower than those among noncarriers; these mutations were also associated with protection from coronary artery disease. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).Supported by a career development award from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health (NIH) (K08HL114642 to Dr. Stitziel) and by the Foundation for Barnes–Jewish Hospital. Dr. Peloso is supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the NIH (award number K01HL125751). Dr. Kathiresan is supported by a Research Scholar award from the Massachusetts General Hospital, the Donovan Family Foundation, grants from the NIH (R01HL107816 and R01HL127564), a grant from Fondation Leducq, and an investigator-initiated grant from Merck. Dr. Merlini was supported by a grant from the Italian Ministry of Health (RFPS-2007-3-644382). Drs. Ardissino and Marziliano were supported by Regione Emilia Romagna Area 1 Grants. Drs. Farrall and Watkins acknowledge the support of the Wellcome Trust core award (090532/Z/09/Z), the British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre of Research Excellence. Dr. Schick is supported in part by a grant from the National Cancer Institute (R25CA094880). Dr. Goel acknowledges EU FP7 & Wellcome Trust Institutional strategic support fund. Dr. Deloukas’s work forms part of the research themes contributing to the translational research portfolio of Barts Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, which is supported and funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). Drs. Webb and Samani are funded by the British Heart Foundation, and Dr. Samani is an NIHR Senior Investigator. Dr. Masca was supported by the NIHR Leicester Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit (BRU), and this work forms part of the portfolio of research supported by the BRU. Dr. Won was supported by a postdoctoral award from the American Heart Association (15POST23280019). Dr. McCarthy is a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator (098381) and an NIHR Senior Investigator. Dr. Danesh is a British Heart Foundation Professor, European Research Council Senior Investigator, and NIHR Senior Investigator. Drs. Erdmann, Webb, Samani, and Schunkert are supported by the FP7 European Union project CVgenes@ target (261123) and the Fondation Leducq (CADgenomics, 12CVD02). Drs. Erdmann and Schunkert are also supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research e:Med program (e:AtheroSysMed and sysINFLAME), and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft cluster of excellence “Inflammation at Interfaces” and SFB 1123. Dr. Kessler received a DZHK Rotation Grant. The analysis was funded, in part, by a Programme Grant from the BHF (RG/14/5/30893 to Dr. Deloukas). Additional funding is listed in the Supplementary Appendix.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Massachusetts Medical Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa150765

Exome-chip meta-analysis identifies novel loci associated with cardiac conduction, including ADAMTS6.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies conducted on QRS duration, an electrocardiographic measurement associated with heart failure and sudden cardiac death, have led to novel biological insights into cardiac function. However, the variants identified fall predominantly in non-coding regions and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. RESULTS: Here, we identify putative functional coding variation associated with changes in the QRS interval duration by combining Illumina HumanExome BeadChip genotype data from 77,898 participants of European ancestry and 7695 of African descent in our discovery cohort, followed by replication in 111,874 individuals of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and deCODE cohorts. We identify ten novel loci, seven within coding regions, including ADAMTS6, significantly associated with QRS duration in gene-based analyses. ADAMTS6 encodes a secreted metalloprotease of currently unknown function. In vitro validation analysis shows that the QRS-associated variants lead to impaired ADAMTS6 secretion and loss-of function analysis in mice demonstrates a previously unappreciated role for ADAMTS6 in connexin 43 gap junction expression, which is essential for myocardial conduction. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach identifies novel coding and non-coding variants underlying ventricular depolarization and provides a possible mechanism for the ADAMTS6-associated conduction changes.BH