Is late-onset Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) a valid diagnosis in adults?

INTRODUÇÃO: O paradigma atual do Transtorno de Déficit de Atenção e Hiperatividade (TDAH) o entende como um transtorno do neurodesenvolvimento de início na infância, que pode persistir na vida adulta. Entretanto, foi levantada a hipótese de uma síndrome de TDAH de início tardio (idade de início >12 anos). OBJETIVO: Avaliar o atual estado do conhecimento em relação ao TDAH de início tardio. MATERIAL E MÉTODOS: Revisão sistemática da literatura usando as bases de dados PubMed (MEDLINE) e SCOPUS. RESULTADOS: Nós encontramos seis estudos que relatam dados corroborando a existência do TDAH de início tardio: cinco da busca no PubMed e um dos artigos sem sobreposição da busca no SCOPUS. DISCUSSÃO: Apesar do pequeno número de estudos, das diferenças de metodologia entre eles e da presença de limitações em todos eles, os dados relativos a aspectos clínicos oferecem alguma sustentação para a validade de conteúdo do diagnóstico de TDAH em adultos de início tardio. CONCLUSÕES: Embora muitas controvérsias ainda existam e estudos confirmando sua validade de construto são necessários, TDAH de início tardio pode ser um diagnóstico válido em adultos. Portanto, clínicos devem considerar o diagnóstico e tratamento de TDAH em adultos de início tardio ao invés de simplesmente negligencia-lo devido ao critério de idade de início.INTRODUCTION: The current Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) paradigm understands it as a childhood-onset neurodevelopmental disorder that can persist into adult life. However, it has been raised the possibility of a late-onset ADHD syndrome. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the current state of knowledge regarding late-onset (i.e. age-of-onset > 12 years) ADHD. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Systematic literature review using PubMed (MEDLINE) and SCOPUS databases. RESULTS: We found six studies reporting data offering some support for the existence of late-onset ADHD: five from the PubMed search and one from the non-overlapping articles in the SCOPUS search. DISCUSSION: Despite the small number of studies, the differences in methodology among them and the presence of limitations in all of them, data regarding clinical aspects offer some support for the content validity of late-onset ADHD diagnosis in adults. CONCLUSIONS: Although many controversies still exist and studies supporting its construct validity are needed, late-onset ADHD may be a valid diagnosis in adults. Thus, clinicians should consider diagnosing and treating late-onset ADHD in adults, instead of just neglecting this possibility because of the age-of-onset criterion

Omnichannel strategy and user experience: a study at LinkedIn

Introdução: A informação está presente nos diversos meios e recursos tecnológicos existentes, sendo utilizada tanto para uma compra online como para redigir um texto numa rede social digital, expondo opinião sobre um determinado fato ou assunto. Utiliza a estratégia omninichannel para entender a gestão integrada de canais de comunicação no uso simultâneo e na interligação desses diferentes canais, analisando a experiência do usuário e sua satisfação em relação à rede social digital LinkedIn. Objetiva compreender a importância da estratégia omnichannel para a experiência do usuário na rede social digital LinkedIn. Método: O percurso metodológico é alicerçado pela abordagem qualitativa e utiliza formulário online, averiguando a satisfação no LinkedIn quanto à estratégia omnichannel e à experiência do usuário. Resultados: Os resultados apontam a consolidação de um público especializado e experiente na utilização da rede social digital LinkedIn, constatando possibilidades de melhorias, expondo as dificuldades de uso enfrentadas e conhecendo a estratégia omnichannel como forma de integração entre o usuário e os recursos inerentes à estratégia. Conclusão: A partir do alcance do objetivo do artigo, considera que o relacionamento estratégico possibilitado pela omnichannel é desenvolvido mediante a integração de conteúdo disseminado nos canais de comunicação juntamente com a integração entre os próprios usuários da informação.Introduction: The information is present in the various existing technological means and resources, being used both for online purchase and for writing a text on a digital social network, exposing an opinion on a certain fact or subject. It uses the omnichannel strategy to understand the integrated management of communication channels in the simultaneous use and interconnection of these different channels, analyzing the user experience and their satisfaction concerning LinkedIn social media. It aims to understand the importance of the omnichannel strategy for the user experience in LinkedIn social media. Method: The methodological path is based on the qualitative approach and uses an online form to ascertain satisfaction on LinkedIn regarding the omnichannel strategy and the user experience. Results: The results point to the consolidation of a specialized and experienced public in the use of the LinkedIn social media, realizing possibilities for improvements exposing the difficulties of use faced and knowing the omnichannel strategy as a way of integration between the user and the resources inherent to the strategy. Conclusions: It considers that the strategic relationship made possible by omnichannel is developed through the integration of content disseminated in the communication channels given the integration between the information users themselves

Os aspectos atuais epidemiológicos e clínicos da Monkeypox: uma revisão de literatura

Neste artigo propomos um estudo que visa entender a fisiopatologia da Varíola dos Macacos, bem como seu quadro clínico e sua epidemiologia atual. Revisão de literatura de caráter exploratório, com uma avaliação de pesquisas e casos da prática clínica, em que se fez uma análise da epidemiologia da Varíola dos Macacos e seu quadro clínico. Foram selecionados 31 estudos para compor essa revisão de literatura. Entre as bases de dados selecionadas estão: PubMed, BVS, Google Scholar e SciELO. A análise das pesquisas mostrou uma ascensão da Monkeypox por todo o mundo após o ano de 2022.  A sintomatologia tem sido muito diversa, tendo como principais sinais e sintomas lesões cutâneas, febre e linfadenopatias. A maioria dos casos não precisou de hospitalização. Contudo, em pacientes imunossuprimidos, crianças e gestantes a infecção se mostrou mais perigosa. A Monkeypox deixou de ser endêmica da África Ocidental no ano de 2022 e vem tomando proporções globais desde então. É de suma importância pesquisas epidemiológicas de rotina para que a doença seja controlada de perto e para que os profissionais da saúde tenham consciência de seu quadro clínico para a adequada notificação da doença

O manuscrito e o iconográfico em cartões-postais belicosos: da apologia cavalheiresca à contestação da Grande Guerra (1914-1918) na França

O trabalho analisa mensagens transmitidas por cartões-postais produzidos e circulados na França no contexto da Primeira Guerra Mundial (1914-1918), apresentando temática associada ao conflito. O objetivo é contrapor as mensagens iconográficas e textuais neles impressas à quelas que foram manuscritas por seus remetentes, de modo a evidenciar formas de expressão e percepções do conflito, conforme empregadas por civis e militares, em diferentes momentos de seu desenvolvimento.The paper analyzes messages conveyed by postcards produced and circulated in France during the First World War (1914-1918), with themes referring to the conflict. The intention is to compare the iconographic and textual messages printed with handwritten messages, to display forms of expression and perception of war, used by civilian and military on different occasions

Estimulação cerebral profunda na Doença de Parkinson: evidências de estudos de longa duração

A Doença de Parkinson (DP) é uma condição neurodegenerativa crônica que afeta principalmente idosos, mas pode ocorrer em adultos jovens. É a segunda doença neurodegenerativa mais comum, após o Alzheimer. A DP afeta 1% dos indivíduos acima de 60 anos em países industrializados. Sua causa envolve fatores genéticos e ambientais, como exposição a pesticidas e envelhecimento. A Estimulação Cerebral Profunda (DBS) é um tratamento que simula lesões cerebrais, melhorando sintomas motores e não motores. O presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar evidências de estudos sobre a eficácia da DBS no tratamento da DP. Trata-se de uma revisão sistemática de estudos quantitativos que utiliza as bases de dados PubMed (Medline), Cochrane Library e Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO) para selecionar artigos científicos. Os estudos incluídos abrangem o período de 2013 a 2023 e estão em inglês, abordando a DBS no tratamento da DP. A DBS melhora diversos sintomas motores e não motores, resultando em uma melhor qualidade de vida para os pacientes. Tais benefícios são sustentados mesmo em estágios avançados da Doença de Parkinson, a qual consiste em fornecer pulsos de corrente elétrica a áreas cerebrais profundas através de eletrodos implantados cirurgicamente, geralmente quando a terapia medicamentosa já não é eficaz. Em um estudo com 82 pacientes, a terapia com DBS resultou em uma redução de ± 52% nos sintomas motores do UPDRS sob medicação antes da cirurgia. A melhora nos sintomas motores com a estimulação, em comparação com a ausência de estimulação e medicação, foi de ± 61% no primeiro ano e ± 39% de 8 a 15 anos após a cirurgia (antes da reprogramação). A medicação foi reduzida em ± 55% após 1 ano e ± 44% após 8 a 15 anos, com a maioria dos pacientes mostrando melhorias após a reprogramação. De acordo com as literaturas analisadas, a DBS é uma terapia eficaz para a DP. Enfatiza-se a importância da inovação contínua e dos novos estudos para explorar as facetas não investigadas desse campo. Com a abordagem dos aspectos clínicos, cirúrgicos, tecnológicos e científicos, destacam-se os benefícios, limitações e desafios a serem superados. Ademais, inovações tecnológicas na DBS, como a estimulação direcional, adaptativa e a telemedicina estão sendo exploradas. Em suma, este artigo fornece evidências sobre os benefícios da DBS na DP, ressaltando a necessidade de pesquisas adicionais para otimizar tal intervenção terapêutica e melhorar a qualidade de vida dos pacientes

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97\ub71 (95% UI 95\ub78-98\ub71) in Iceland, followed by 96\ub76 (94\ub79-97\ub79) in Norway and 96\ub71 (94\ub75-97\ub73) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18\ub76 (13\ub71-24\ub74) in the Central African Republic, 19\ub70 (14\ub73-23\ub77) in Somalia, and 23\ub74 (20\ub72-26\ub78) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91\ub75 (89\ub71-93\ub76) in Beijing to 48\ub70 (43\ub74-53\ub72) in Tibet (a 43\ub75-point difference), while India saw a 30\ub78-point disparity, from 64\ub78 (59\ub76-68\ub78) in Goa to 34\ub70 (30\ub73-38\ub71) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4\ub78-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20\ub79-point to 17\ub70-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17\ub72-point to 20\ub74-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Com o diabo no corpo: os terríveis papagaios do Brasil colônia

Desde a Antiguidade, papagaios, periquitos e afins (Psittacidae) fascinaram os europeus por seu vivo colorido e uma notável capacidade de interação com seres humanos. A descoberta do Novo Mundo nada faria além de acrescentar novos elementos ao tráfico de animais exóticos há muito estabelecido pelos europeus com a África e o Oriente. Sem possuir grandes mamíferos, a América tropical participaria desse comércio com o que tinha de mais atrativo, essencialmente felinos, primatas e aves - em particular os papagaios, os quais eram embarcados em bom número. Contudo, a julgar pelos documentos do Brasil colônia, esses voláteis podiam inspirar muito pouca simpatia, pois nenhum outro animal - exceto as formigas - foi tantas vezes mencionado como praga para a agricultura. Além disso, alguns psitácidas mostravam-se tão loquazes que inspiravam a séria desconfiança de serem animais demoníacos ou possessos, pois só três classes de entidades - anjos, homens e demônios - possuíam o dom da palavra. Nos dias de hoje, vários representantes dos Psittacidae ainda constituem uma ameaça para a agricultura, enquanto os indivíduos muito faladores continuam despertando a suspeita de estarem possuídos pelo demônio. Transcendendo a mera curiosidade, essa crença exemplifica o quão intrincadas podem ser as relações do homem com o chamado “mundo natural”, revelando um universo mais amplo e multifacetado do que se poderia supor a princípio. Nesse sentido, a existência de aves capazes de falar torna essa relação ainda mais complexa e evidencia que as dificuldades de estabelecer o limite entre o animal e o humano se estendem além dos primatas e envolvem as mais inusitadas espécies zoológicas.Since ancient times, parrots and their allies (Psittacidae) have fascinated Europeans by their striking colors and notable ability to interact with human beings. The discovery of the New World added new species to the international exotic animal trade, which for many centuries had brought beasts to Europe from Africa and the Orient. Lacking large mammals, tropical America participated in this trade with its most appealing species, essentially felines, primates and birds - especially parrots - which were shipped in large numbers. It should be noted, however, that at times these birds were not well liked. In fact, according to documents from colonial Brazil, only the ants rank higher than parrots as the animals most often mentioned as agricultural pests. On the other hand, some of these birds were so chatty that people suspected them to be demonic or possessed animals, since only three classes of beings - angels, men and demons - have the ability to speak. Nowadays, several Psittacidae still constitute a threat to agriculture, and the suspicion that extremely talkative birds were demon possessed has also survived. More than a joke or a mere curiosity, this belief exemplifies how intricate man’s relationships with the “natural world” may be. In this sense, the existence of birds that are able to speak adds a further twist to these relationships, demonstrating that the problem of establishing a boundary between the animal and the human does not only involve primates, but also includes some unusual zoological species