Cambios en la distribución potencial de pinares del occidente de Cuba en diferentes escenarios de cambio climático

Con el propósito de proyectar los cambios y posibles impactos en la distribución de hábitats potenciales para los pinares en el occidente de Cuba bajo diferentes escenarios de cambio climático, se empleó la técnica de modelación de distribución de especies con los algortimos MaxEnt Y BIOCLIM. A partir de la georreferenciación de 1851 rodales naturales de Pinus caribaea var. caribaea y de Pinus tropicalis y los datos del clima actual y futuro, se estimaron las áreas con aptitudes ambientales alta media y baja, siendo estas últimas muy superiores al área ocupada en la actualidad. El algoritmo MaxEnt con los datos del Modelo Climático Regional PRECIS-CARIBE, mostró mejor desempeño en sus predicciones de cambios e impactos. A mediano y largo plazo se espera una reducción y un ligero desplazamiento al Este de los nichos climáticos potenciales para Pinus caribaea en Pinar del Río e Isla de la Juventud, para Pinus tropicalis, que tiene áreas de aptitud ambiental alta mayor, se estima un incremento y desplazamiento al Oeste de sus nichos ecológicos en Pinar del Río, pero sin condiciones climáticas favorables en la Isla de la Juventud. Se proyecta impactos mayores en áreas que hoy son fuentes semilleras de Pinus caribaea var. caribaea

Modelación de hábitats potenciales de Pinus caribaea Morelet var. caribaea Barrett y Golfari en el occidente de Cuba

The potential distribution of pine forest Pinus caribaea Morelet var. caribaea Barrett y Golfari was modeling from the relation between the presence and current climate in the western Cuba including Isla de la Juventud. The algorithm of Maximum entropy was used to generate the maps with the probabilities suitable habitats maps supported by the DIVA-GIS based on the georeferency of the natural stand and 17 bioclimatic variables. The most important variables were annual regimen and the mean temperature of the coolest period. The areas representing the suitable habitats are located in northeast: las Alturas de Cajálbana, Galalón y Caiguanabo, in Pinar del Rio and northwest of Isla de la Juventud. These results are part of the Doctorate in Forest Sciences.La distribución potencial de los pinares de Pinus caribaea Morelet var. caribaea Barrett y Golfari fue modelada a partir de la relación entre la presencia y el comportamiento del clima en el occidente de Cuba incluyendo la Isla de la Juventud. El algoritmo de máxima entropía (MaxEnt) fue empleado para generar los mapas de probabilidades de mejores hábitats con el Sistema de Información Geográfica DIVA-GIS, sobre la base de la georreferenciación de los rodales naturales y 17 variables bioclimáticas. Las variables que más contribuyeron al modelo fueron el régimen anual de las precipitaciones y la temperatura media en el período más frío. Las áreas que representan los mejores hábitats, se ubican en el noreste: las Alturas de Cajálbana, Galalón y Caiguanabo, Pinar del Río y en el noroeste de la Isla de la Juventud. Estos resultados forman parte del Doctorado en Ciencias Forestales

Uso del desempeño de los índices de peligro de incendio como herramienta para el pronóstico de ocurrencias

One of the tools used for the evaluation of fire danger are the danger indices, allowing the reduction of the large losses caused by them. The Pinar del Río province is the first in Cuba in terms of the occurrence of fires. This research aims to demonstrate the use and importance of the performance of the Nesterov indices, FMA (Monte Alegre Formula), FMA+ (Modified Monte Alegre Formula) and (FPR) Pinar del Río Formula for the Pinar del Río province as a tool help in the decision-making process. The meteorological database and the fires that occurred in the province were used and the performance of the danger indices was determined through the Skill score and the percentage of success. The FPR index presented the lowest value of Skill score, however, it showed the highest value of success percentage and the best behavior of the distribution of degrees of danger, which globally demonstrates that it is the one with the best performance compared to the rest. of the evaluated indices. It was shown that the use of this index contributes to better planning and reduction of the costs of combating forest fires in the province of Pinar del Río.Una de las herramientas utilizadas para la evaluación del peligro de incendio son los índices de peligro, permitiendo la reducción de las cuantiosas pérdidas ocasionadas por los mismos. La provincia Pinar del Río es en Cuba la primera en cuanto a ocurrencia de incendios. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo demostrar el uso e importancia del desempeño de los índices Nesterov, FMA (Fórmula de Monte Alegre), FMA+ (Fórmula de Monte Alegre Modificada) y (FPR) Fórmula de Pinar del Río para la provincia Pinar del Río como herramienta de ayuda en el proceso de toma de decisiones. Se utilizó la base de datos meteorológicos y de los incendios ocurridos en la provincia y se determinó el desempeño de los índices de peligro mediante el Skill score y el porcentaje de éxito. El índice FPR presentó el menor valor de Skill score no obstante mostro el valor más alto de porcentaje de éxito y el mejor comportamiento de la distribución de los grados de peligro lo cual demuestra de forma global que es el de mejor desempeño en comparación con el resto de los índices evaluados. Se demostró que la utilización de este índice contribuye a una mejor planificación y reducción de los costos de combate de los incendios forestales en la provincia de Pinar del Río

RELACIÓN ENTRE VARIABLES METEOROLÓGICAS E INCENDIOS FORESTALES EN LA PROVINCIA PINAR DEL RÍO, CUBA

Comprender la relación existente entre variables meteorológicas e incendios forestales es importante con vistas a una gestión de las actividades propias del manejo integral del fuego dentro de límites económicamente viables, socialmente aceptables y ecológicamente apropiados. Esta investigación fue desarrollada con el objetivo de argumentar las relaciones existentes entre variables meteorológicas tales como temperatura del aire, humedad relativa, precipitación y velocidad del viento y los incendios forestales en la provincia Pinar del Río, Cuba. La base de datos meteorológicos utilizados fue facilitada por el Centro Meteorológico Provincial de Pinar del Río y los datos de incendios forestales fueron obtenidos en el Cuerpo de Guardabosques de Pinar del Río a través de los correspondientes registros de ocurrencias de incendios. Toda la información utilizada se refiere al período del 01/01/2010 al 31/12/2014, totalizando cinco años de observaciones. Para los análisis estadísticos se utilizó el programa informático IBM SPSS Statistic versión 22. Los resultados muestran que la distribución anual de las variables meteorológicas tiene relación directa o inversa con la distribución de las ocurrencias de incendios y las áreas quemadas en la provincia Pinar del Río durante el período 2010-2014. Independientemente de lo anterior, las correlaciones entre variables meteorológicas e incendios forestales fueron bajas o muy bajas. No obstante, es posible demostrar que el mes de abril es el más propicio para la ocurrencia de los incendios forestales.Palabras clave:   Manejo del fuego; prevención de incendios forestales; factores meteorológicos; propagación del fuego; combustible forestal disponible

Adaptation and performance of Nesterov, FMA and FMA+ fire indices in Macurije Forest Company, Cuba

 ResumoEsta pesquisa foi desenvolvida com os objetivos de ajustar e comparar o desempenho dos índices de Nesterov, Fórmula de Monte Alegre (FMA) e Fórmula de Monte Alegre Alterada (FMA+)na Empresa Florestal Macurije, província Pinar del Río, Cuba. Os dados meteorológicos e de ocorrência de incêndios, referentes ao período 01/01/2006 a 31/12/2011, foram fornecidos pelo Centro Meteorológico, pelo Instituto de Hydroeconomia e pelo Corpo de Guarda-Bosques da Província. Dois cenários foram considerados: um utilizando a precipitação registrada na Estação Meteorológica de Isabel Rubio e outro considerando, além dela, 11 pluviômetros distribuídos na área do estudo. Foram considerados como não indicativos de probabilidade de ocorrência de incêndios as classes de perigo Nulo e Pequeno e como indicativo da probabilidade de ocorrências as classes de perigo Médio, Alto e Muito Alto. A partir dessa definição, foram calculados os valores de skill score e porcentagem de sucesso dos índices nos dois cenários, utilizando-se as escalas atuais e ajustadas das classes do perigo. Os resultados indicaram um melhor desempenho para os três índices com as escalas ajustadas, sendo mais eficiente o índice FMA+. Para este, os valores de skill score e porcentagem de sucesso foram 0,0737 e 57,10%, respectivamente.AbstractAdaptation and performance of Nesterov, FMA and FMA+ fire indices in Macurije Forest Company, Cuba. This research aimed to adapt Nesterov, Monte Alegre Formula (FMA) fire danger indices, and Modified Monte Alegre Formula (FMA+) to the Macurije Forest Company conditions as well as to compare their performances. The meteorological and forest fire occurrences databases were provided by the Meteorological Center, Hydro-economy Institute, and Forest Guard Corps of the Pinar del Rio province. All data referred to the period from 01/01/2006 to 31/12/2011. Two different scenarios were considered: one considering the rainfall measured at the Isabel Rubio Meteorological Station and other with the inclusion of 11 pluviometers distributed throughout the focused area. The performance of indices was evaluated by skill score methodology. Null and Low fire danger classes were considered as indicative of no fire occurrence and Medium, High and Very High classes as indicative of fire occurrence. Based on this definition the skill score and the success percentages of the indices had been calculated in the two proposed scenarios. The current and the adjusted scales of the danger indices were used. The results pointed to better performance for the three indices with the adjusted scale. The FMA+ index was the most efficient to forecast the fire danger in the focused region. The skill score and the success percentage of this index were 0.0737 and 57.10%, respectively.Keywords: Fire danger index; forest fire; fire prevention.  AbstractThis research aimed to adapt Nesterov, Monte Alegre Formula (FMA) fire danger indices, and Modified Monte Alegre Formula (FMA+) to the Macurije Forest Company conditions as well as to compare their performances. The meteorological and forest fire occurrences databases were provided by the Meteorological Center, Hydro-economy Institute, and Forest Guard Corps of the Pinar del Rio province. All data referred to the period from 01/01/2006 to 31/12/2011. Two different scenarios were considered: one considering the rainfall measured at the Isabel Rubio Meteorological Station and other with the inclusion of 11 pluviometers distributed throughout the focused area. The performance of indices was evaluated by skill score methodology. Null and Low fire danger classes were considered as indicative of no fire occurrence and Medium, High and Very High classes as indicative of fire occurrence. Based on this definition the skill score and the success percentages of the indices had been calculated in the two proposed scenarios. The current and the adjusted scales of the danger indices were used. The results pointed to better performance for the three indices with the adjusted scale. The FMA+ index was the most efficient to forecast the fire danger in the focused region. The skill score and the success percentage of this index were 0.0737 and 57.10%, respectively.Keywords: Fire danger index; forest fire; fire prevention

Bayesian factor to estimate the presence of diarrheas in children by Rotavirus in front of condition climatic

La medicina enfrenta el reto de adquirir, analizar y aplicar conocimiento para resolver problemas clínicos complejos. Existen innumerables adelantos que involucran el uso intensivo de la tecnología para realizar correlación de datos necesarios para la toma de decisiones. En este artículo se realiza una estimación de la presencia de diarreas en niños por Rotavirus frente a condiciones climáticas a través del factor bayesiano que, incluye una correlación de Pearson, donde se caracteriza la distribución posterior y se estima el factor de Bayes. Para tal fin se analizan series de datos climático temporales y series de datos de pacientes enfermos con diarreas por rotavirus. El estudio se realiza en el municipio de Pinar del Río, en el periodo comprendido de noviembre de 2018 – mayo 2019. La población susceptible a la enfermedad es de 516 pacientes, para una muestra de 210 niños, con edad de 1 mes de nacido a 5 años de vida y que fueron hospitalizados en el Hospital Pediátrico Pepe Portilla de la provincia de Pinar del Río. Los resultados obtenidos a través de una correlación lineal de Pearson es que existe una correlación significativa muy por debajo del P valor y se plantea al respecto que, en la medida que existe un mayor número de precipitaciones, mayores son los enfermos con diarreas por rotavirus. Posteriormente se calcula el Factor Bayes para corroborar lo planteado; obteniéndose un valor igual a 0.124, resultado que demuestra la existencia de evidencia moderada de que los enfermos con diarreas por rotavirus.Medicine faces the challenge of acquiring, analyzing and applying knowledge to solve complex clinical problems. There are innumerable advances that involve the intensive use of technology to correlate the data necessary for decision making. In this article, an estimate of the presence of diarrhea in children due to Rotavirus is carried out against climatic conditions through the Bayesian factor that includes a Pearson correlation, where the posterior distribution is characterized and the Bayes factor is estimated. For this purpose, a series of temporal climatic data and data series of sick patients with rotavirus diarrhea are analyzed. The study was carried out in the municipality of Pinar del Río, in the period from November 2018 to May 2019. The population susceptible to the disease is 516 patients, for a sample of 210 children, aged 1 month from birth to 5 years of age and who were hospitalized at the Pepe Portilla Pediatric Hospital in the province of Pinar del Río. The results obtained through a Pearson linear correlation is that there is a significant correlation well below the P value and it is argued in this regard that, as there is a greater number of precipitations, the greater the number of patients with rotavirus diarrhea. Subsequently, the Bayes Factor is calculated to corroborate what has been raised; obtaining a value equal to 0.12

Concurrent chemo-radiotherapy following neoadjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced breast cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite broad advances in multimodal treatment of locally advanced breast cancer (LABC), 30 to 40% of patients develop loco-regional relapse. The aim of this study was to analyze in a retrospective manner the effectiveness of concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CCRTh) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) in patients with LABC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>One hundred twelve patients with LABC (stage IIB-IIIB) were treated with NCT (5-fluorouracil 500 mg/m², doxorubicin 50 mg/m², and cyclophosphamide 500 mg/m²(FAC), or doxorubicin 50 mg/m²and cyclophosphamide 500 mg/m²(AC) IV in four 21-day courses) followed by CCRTh (60 Gy breast irradiation and weekly mitomycin 5 mg/m², 5-fluorouracil 500 mg/m², and dexamethasone 16 mg, or cisplatin 30 mg/m², gemcitabine 100 mg/m²and dexamethasone 16 mg), and 6–8 weeks later, surgery and two additional courses of FAC, AC, or paclitaxel 90 mg/m²weekly for 12 weeks, and in case of estrogen-receptor positive patients, hormonal therapy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Stages IIB, IIIA and -B were 21.4, 42.9, and 35.7%, respectively. Pathological complete response (pCR) in the breast was 42% (95% CI, 33.2–50.5%) and, 29.5% (95% CI, 21.4–37.5%) if including both the breast and the axillary nodes. Multivariate analysis showed that the main determinant of pCR was negative estrogen-receptor status (HR = 3.8; 95% CI, 1.5–9; <it>p </it>= 0.016). The 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) was 76.9% (95% CI, 68.2–84.7%). No relationship between pCR and DFS was found. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the main DFS determinant was clinical stage (IIB and IIIA <it>vs. </it>IIIB, HR = 3.1; 95% CI, 1.02–9.74; <it>p </it>= 0.04). Only one patient had local recurrence. Five-year overall survival was 84.2% (95% CI, 75–93.2%). The toxicity profile was acceptable.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This non-conventional multimodal treatment has good loco-regional control for LABC. Randomized clinical trials of preoperative CCRTh following chemotherapy, in patients with LABC are warranted.</p

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Gestión del conocimiento. Perspectiva multidisciplinaria. Volumen 3

El libro “Gestión del Conocimiento. Perspectiva Multidisciplinaria”, de la colección Unión global, es una publicación internacional, seriada, continua, arbitrada de acceso abierto a todas las áreas del conocimiento, es el esfuerzo de investigadores de varios países del mundo, orientada a contribuir con procesos de gestión del conocimiento científico, tecnológico y humanístico que consoliden la transformación del conocimiento en diferentes escenarios, tanto organizacionales como universitarios, para el desarrollo de habilidades cognitivas del quehacer diario. En este sentido, se presenta a la comunidad internacional el libro Gestión del Conocimiento. Perspectiva Multidisciplinaria Volumen 3, con aportes teóricos y prácticos de autores, cuyos resultados de trabajos de investigación, son análisis de diversas teorías, propuestas, enfoques y experiencias sobre el tema de gestión del conocimiento, lo cual permite el posicionamiento de las organizaciones en la utilización del conocimiento, su apropiación y transformación. Los conceptos o criterios emitidos en cada capítulo del libro, son responsabilidad exclusiva de sus autores