How Will Climate Change Shape Climate Opinion?

As climate change intensifies, global publics will experience more unusual weather and extreme weather events. How will individual experiences with these weather trends shape climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors? In this article, we review 73 papers that have studied the relationship between climate change experiences and public opinion. Overall, we find mixed evidence that weather shapes climate opinions. Although there is some support for a weak effect of local temperature and extreme weather events on climate opinion, the heterogeneity of independent variables, dependent variables, study populations, and research designs complicate systematic comparison. To advance research on this critical topic, we suggest that future studies pay careful attention to differences between self-reported and objective weather data, causal identification, and the presence of spatial autocorrelation in weather and climate data. Refining research designs and methods in future studies will help us understand the discrepancies in results, and allow better detection of effects, which have important practical implications for climate communication. As the global population increasingly experiences weather conditions outside the range of historical experience, researchers, communicators, and policymakers need to understand how these experiences shape-and are shaped by-public opinions and behaviors

When do children learn how to select a portion size?

The reduction of portion sizes supports weight-loss. This study looks at whether children have a conceptual understanding of portion size, by studying their ability to manually serve a portion size that corresponds to what they eat. In a clinical setting, discussion around portion size is subjective thus a computerised portion size tool is also trialled, with the portion sizes chosen on the screen being compared to amounts served manually. Children (n=76) age 5-6, 7-8 and 10-11 were asked to rate their hunger (VAS scale), liking (VAS scale) and ‘ideal portion size for lunch’ of eight interactive meal images using a computerised portion size tool. Children then manually self-served and consumed a portion of pasta. Plates were weighed to allow for the calculation of calories served and eaten. A positive correlation was found between manually served food portions and the amount eaten (r =.53, 95%CI [.34, .82, P<.001), indicating that many children were able to anticipate their likely food intake prior to meal onset. A regression model demonstrates that age contributes to 9.4% of the variance in portion size accuracy (t(68)= -2.3, p=.02). There was no relationship between portion size and either hunger or liking. The portion sizes chosen on the computer at lunchtime correlated to the amount manually served overall (r=.34, 95%CI [.07, .55], p<.01), but not in 5-6-year-old children. Manual portion-size selection can be observed in five-year olds and from age seven, children’s ‘virtual’ responses correlate with their manual portion selections. The application of the computerised portion-size tool requires further development but offers considerable potential

High yielding biomass ideotypes of willow (Salix spp.) show differences in below ground biomass allocation.

Willows (Salix spp.) grown as short rotation coppice (SRC) are viewed as a sustainable source of biomass with a positive greenhouse gas (GHG) balance due to their potential to fix and accumulate carbon (C) below ground. However, exploiting this potential has been limited by the paucity of data available on below ground biomass allocation and the extent to which it varies between genotypes. Furthermore, it is likely that allocation can be altered considerably by environment. To investigate the role of genotype and environment on allocation, four willow genotypes were grown at two replicated field sites in southeast England and west Wales, UK. Above and below ground biomass was intensively measured over two two-year rotations. Significant genotypic differences in biomass allocation were identified, with below ground allocation differing by up to 10% between genotypes. Importantly, the genotype with the highest below ground biomass also had the highest above ground yield. Furthermore, leaf area was found to be a good predictor of below ground biomass. Growth environment significantly impacted allocation; the willow genotypes grown in west Wales had up to 94% more biomass below ground by the end of the second rotation. A single investigation into fine roots showed the same pattern with double the volume of fine roots present. This greater below ground allocation may be attributed primarily to higher wind speeds, plus differences in humidity and soil characteristics. These results demonstrate that the capacity exists to breed plants with both high yields and high potential for C accumulation

Seasonal Carbohydrate Dynamics and Climatic Regulation of Senescence in the Perennial Grass, Miscanthus

Miscanthus is a perennial energy grass predominantly used for combustion but there is increasing interest in fermenting the cell-wall carbohydrates or green-cutting for soluble sugars to produce bioethanol. Our aims were to: (1) quantify non-structural carbohydrates (NSC), (2) observe the timing of seasonal shifts in the stems and rhizome, and (3) identify developmental and/or climatic conditions that promoted carbohydrate remobilization from the stems to the rhizome during senescence. Two genotypes of Miscanthus sinensis, a Miscanthus sacchariflorus and a Miscanthus × giganteus were grown at replicated field sites in Aberystwyth, West Wales and Harpenden, South East England. NSC were quantified from the rhizome and aboveground organs and then correlated with climatic data collected from on-site weather stations. PAR and maximum daily temperatures were higher at Harpenden throughout the year, but daily minimum temperatures were lower. Senescence was accelerated at Harpenden. Carbohydrates were retained within the stems of non-flowering genotypes, at both sites, in winter and were still present after a frost event to −2 °C. Rhizome starch concentrations were at least equal to the previous winter’s levels (February 2011) by September. Lower daily minimum temperatures accelerate the rate of senescence and warmer daily maximum temperatures cannot counteract this effect. At current yields, M. × giganteus, could produce 0.7 t ha−1 of NSC in addition to ligno-cellulosic biomass in November but with concerted breeding efforts this could be targeted for improvement as has been achieved in other crops. Shifting harvests forward to November would not leave the rhizome depleted of carbohydrates

European soybean to benefit people and the environment.

Europe imports large amounts of soybean that are predominantly used for livestock feed, mainly sourced from Brazil, USA and Argentina. In addition, the demand for GM-free soybean for human consumption is project to increase. Soybean has higher protein quality and digestibility than other legumes, along with high concentrations of isoflavones, phytosterols and minerals that enhance the nutritional value as a human food ingredient. Here, we examine the potential to increase soybean production across Europe for livestock feed and direct human consumption, and review possible effects on the environment and human health. Simulations and field data indicate rainfed soybean yields of 3.1 ± 1.2 t ha-1 from southern UK through to southern Europe (compared to a 3.5 t ha-1 average from North America). Drought-prone southern regions and cooler northern regions require breeding to incorporate stress-tolerance traits. Literature synthesized in this work evidenced soybean properties important to human nutrition, health, and traits related to food processing compared to alternative protein sources. While acknowledging the uncertainties inherent in any modelling exercise, our findings suggest that further integrating soybean into European agriculture could reduce GHG emissions by 37-291 Mt CO2e year-1 and fertiliser N use by 0.6-1.2 Mt year-1, concurrently improving human health and nutrition

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens