Use of Panel Data for Assessing Socio-Economic Situation in the Northern Regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai

Развитие ресурсных сибирских регионов, включая северные территории Красноярского края, входит в сферу приоритетных экономических и геополитических интересов страны. Стратегическое развитие ресурсных регионов сталкивается с комплексом экологических, экономических и социальных проблем, особо остро стоящих перед северными арктическими территориями, таких как снижение качества жизни населения, дефицит трудовых ресурсов, увеличение скорости трансформации природно-ресурсного потенциала. В связи с этим для увеличения эффективности управления развитием ресурсных регионов необходимо внедрение новых современных научных методов и инструментов принятия решения, прогнозирования и мониторинга экономики региона. Новизна данного исследования связана с разработкой эконометрических методов и системы моделей пространственной экономики, опирающихся на панельные (лонгитюдные) исследования, позволяющие оценить пространственное развитие как экономики региона в целом, так и отдельных ее составляющих. Данный подход позволяет оценить силу влияния на уровень развития региона не только системных изменений, но и отдельных частных управленческий решений, а также проводить статистически достоверные сопоставления с различными северными территориями России и других стран. Единая стартовая выборка включала городские округа и 56 муниципальных районов Красноярского края в период с 2007 по 2015 г. При проведении исследования были определены экономические, социальные и экологические показатели состояния арктических территорий Красноярского края и Эвенкийского района, который по биоклиматическим показателям входит в абсолютно дискомфортную и экстремально дискомфортную зоны. Климатический подход, основанный на июльской изотерме, позволяет отнести данную территорию к арктической. Средние месячные температуры июля от +13 °С до +15 °С, января – минус 34-38 °С, что сопоставимо с территориями Арктической зоны. Морозы длятся 240-275 дней. Панельные данные позволили выявить общие тенденции: ярко выраженную асимметрию в развитии арктических и приравненных к ним территорий Красноярского края; динамику изменения основных экономических, социальных и экологических показателей; ухудшение экономических показателей ресурсных регионов на фоне нормализованных данных по всем территориям Красноярского края; снижение экономических показателей не улучшает экологических показателей территорий; отсутствие положительной динамики в социальных показателях при увеличении инвестиций в основной капитал на душу населени

Influence of Angular Orientation of the Embedded Highly Birefringent Fiber on Pmd Changes Under Axial Stress

In the paper we present results of the research on polarization mode dispersion changes inside the polarimetric optical fiber sensors based on highly birefringent optical fibers embedded into composite materials with different angular orientations of the optical axes. Based on measurements made for different types of highly birefringent optical fiber sensors we have shown that strain sensitivities after lamination process are different in comparison to the data obtained before lamination. Our results indicate that polarization mode dispersion in side-hole highly birefringent fibers under axial stress strongly depends on fiber orientation in the composite material suggesting that orientation of the polarization axes of the highly birefringent fiber can be responsible for behavior of the fiber inside the composite material

Multicriteria Approach to Assessing Quality of Life Population the Krasnoyarsk Region on Basis of Generalized Desirability Function

В статье рассмотрен подход к оценке качества жизни населения муниципальных территорий Красноярского края на основе обобщённой функции желательности. Функция желательности Харрингтона успешно применяется при решении оптимизационных задач в различных областях исследований. В положительных свойствах исследователи отмечают непрерывность, монотонность и гладкость, то есть свойства, необходимые для свёртки разнородной информации. К недостаткам относят субъективизм (при назначении шкалы или весовых коэффициентов) и разнородность информации (по скорости изменений или значимости признаков), подвергающейся свёртке. Исследование материала проводилось с помощью статистического анализа демографических, социальных, экологических, экономических, данных здравоохранения с 2017 по 2021 годы, математического метода – обобщённой функции желательности. Данная методика позволила оценить качество жизни населения Красноярского края по 30 показателям. Исходные данные взяты с официального сайта Федеральной службы государственной статистики, Министерства экологии и рационального природопользования Красноярского края. Многокритериальный подход позволяет комплексно оценить качество жизни населения региона и сравнить выбранные территории. В результате исследования с помощью обобщённой функции желательности был получен рейтинг муниципальных районов Красноярского края по качеству жизни, который отображён через геоинформационную систему QGIS. Показатель качества жизни населения в пяти муниципальных образованиях края: Абанском, Боготольском, Идринском, Каратузском и Краснотуранском можно считать хорошим, в диапазон с плохим (низким) показателем качества жизни попали Тасеевский и Березовский районы, во всех остальных муниципальных образованиях данный показатель можно считать удовлетворительным. Анализ качества жизни по макрорегионам показал неоднородность уровня для входящих в них муниципальных округов. Наиболее высокие средние значения параметра отмечены в Южном и Западном, во всех остальных макрорегионах средние значения можно считать удовлетворительными. Для сохранения человеческого капитала на территории края необходимо улучшать качество окружающей среды, улучшать демографическую ситуацию, повышать уровень и качество медицинского обслуживания. Практическая значимость работы заключается в выявлении социально-экологического рейтинга муниципальных образований территории Красноярского края, на основе которого могут быть реализованы мероприятия, направленные на улучшение качества жизни населения Красноярского краяThe article considers an approach assessing quality of life population municipal territories of Krasnoyarsk region on basis of generalized desirability function. The Harrington’s desirability function is successfully used in solving optimization problems in various fields of research. In positive qualities, scientists mark continuity, monotony and smoothness, i.e. qualities necessary for convolution of dissimilar information. Subjectivism (when assigning scales or weighting coefficients) and diversity of information (in terms of the rate of change or significance of features) undergoing convolution are disadvantages. Material was studied using statistical analysis of demographic, social, environmental, economic and health data from 2017 to 2021, a mathematical method – generalized desirability function. This technique made it possible to assess quality of life population Krasnoyarsk Territory by 30 parameters. Source data is taken from official website of Federal State Statistics Service, Ministry Environment and Rational Management of the Krasnoyarsk Krai. Multicriteria approach makes it possible to comprehensively assess the quality to life for population in region and compare selected territories. As a consequence of the study, using generalized desirability function, a rating of municipal districts of the Krasnoyarsk Territory in terms of quality of life was obtained, which is shown through the geographic information system QGIS. The indicator quality of life population in five municipalities of the krai: Abansky, Bogotolsky, Idrinsky, Karatuzsky and Krasnoturansky can be considered good, Taseyevsky and Berezovsky districts fell into the range with a poor (low) indicator of quality life, in all other municipalities this indicator can be considered satisfactory. Analysis quality of life by macro-regions showed diversity of indicator for municipal districts included in them. The highest average values of parameter are noted in Southern and Western regions, in all other macro-regions the average values can be considered satisfactory. In order to preserve human capital in territory of the region, it’s necessary to improve quality of environment, improve demographic situation, and improve quality of medical care. The practical significance concludes in identifying socio-ecological and economic rating municipalities of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, on basis of which measures will can be taken to improve quality life of studied regio

The effects of improving sleep on mental health (OASIS): a randomised controlled trial with mediation analysis

BACKGROUND: Sleep difficulties might be a contributory causal factor in the occurrence of mental health problems. If this is true, improving sleep should benefit psychological health. We aimed to determine whether treating insomnia leads to a reduction in paranoia and hallucinations. METHODS: We did this single-blind, randomised controlled trial (OASIS) at 26 UK universities. University students with insomnia were randomly assigned (1:1) with simple randomisation to receive digital cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for insomnia or usual care, and the research team were masked to the treatment. Online assessments took place at weeks 0, 3, 10 (end of therapy), and 22. The primary outcome measures were for insomnia, paranoia, and hallucinatory experiences. We did intention-to-treat analyses. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN61272251. FINDINGS: Between March 5, 2015, and Feb 17, 2016, we randomly assigned 3755 participants to receive digital CBT for insomnia (n=1891) or usual practice (n=1864). Compared with usual practice, the sleep intervention at 10 weeks reduced insomnia (adjusted difference 4·78, 95% CI 4·29 to 5·26, Cohen's d=1·11; p<0·0001), paranoia (-2·22, -2·98 to -1·45, Cohen's d=0·19; p<0·0001), and hallucinations (-1·58, -1·98 to -1·18, Cohen's d=0·24; p<0·0001). Insomnia was a mediator of change in paranoia and hallucinations. No adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the largest randomised controlled trial of a psychological intervention for a mental health problem. It provides strong evidence that insomnia is a causal factor in the occurrence of psychotic experiences and other mental health problems. Whether the results generalise beyond a student population requires testing. The treatment of disrupted sleep might require a higher priority in mental health provision. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is having profound mental health consequences for many people. Concerns have been expressed that at its most extreme, this may manifest itself in increased suicide rates.MethodsWe sourced real-time suicide data from around the world via a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. We used interrupted time series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides prior to COVID-19 in each country/area-within-country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic. Countries/areas-within countries contributed data from at least 1 January 2019 to 31 July 2020 and potentially from as far back as 1 January 2016 until as recently as 31 October 2020. We conducted a primary analysis in which we treated 1 April to 31 July 2020 as the COVID-19 period, and two sensitivity analyses in which we varied its start and end dates (for those countries/areas-within-countries with data beyond July 2020).OutcomesWe sourced data from 21 countries (high income [n=16], upper-middle income [n=5]; whole country [n=10], area(s)-within-the-country [n=11]). In general, there does not appear to have been a significant increase in suicides since the pandemic began in the countries for which we had data. In fact, in a number of countries/areas-within-countries there appears to have been a decrease.InterpretationThis is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. It offers a consistent picture, albeit from high- and upper-middle income countries, of suicide numbers largely remaining unchanged or declining in the early months of the pandemic. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic impacts of the pandemic unfold

Basic science232. Certolizumab pegol prevents pro-inflammatory alterations in endothelial cell function

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a major comorbidity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and a leading cause of death. Chronic systemic inflammation involving tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF) could contribute to endothelial activation and atherogenesis. A number of anti-TNF therapies are in current use for the treatment of RA, including certolizumab pegol (CZP), (Cimzia ®; UCB, Belgium). Anti-TNF therapy has been associated with reduced clinical cardiovascular disease risk and ameliorated vascular function in RA patients. However, the specific effects of TNF inhibitors on endothelial cell function are largely unknown. Our aim was to investigate the mechanisms underpinning CZP effects on TNF-activated human endothelial cells. Methods: Human aortic endothelial cells (HAoECs) were cultured in vitro and exposed to a) TNF alone, b) TNF plus CZP, or c) neither agent. Microarray analysis was used to examine the transcriptional profile of cells treated for 6 hrs and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysed gene expression at 1, 3, 6 and 24 hrs. NF-κB localization and IκB degradation were investigated using immunocytochemistry, high content analysis and western blotting. Flow cytometry was conducted to detect microparticle release from HAoECs. Results: Transcriptional profiling revealed that while TNF alone had strong effects on endothelial gene expression, TNF and CZP in combination produced a global gene expression pattern similar to untreated control. The two most highly up-regulated genes in response to TNF treatment were adhesion molecules E-selectin and VCAM-1 (q 0.2 compared to control; p > 0.05 compared to TNF alone). The NF-κB pathway was confirmed as a downstream target of TNF-induced HAoEC activation, via nuclear translocation of NF-κB and degradation of IκB, effects which were abolished by treatment with CZP. In addition, flow cytometry detected an increased production of endothelial microparticles in TNF-activated HAoECs, which was prevented by treatment with CZP. Conclusions: We have found at a cellular level that a clinically available TNF inhibitor, CZP reduces the expression of adhesion molecule expression, and prevents TNF-induced activation of the NF-κB pathway. Furthermore, CZP prevents the production of microparticles by activated endothelial cells. This could be central to the prevention of inflammatory environments underlying these conditions and measurement of microparticles has potential as a novel prognostic marker for future cardiovascular events in this patient group. Disclosure statement: Y.A. received a research grant from UCB. I.B. received a research grant from UCB. S.H. received a research grant from UCB. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Design and baseline characteristics of the finerenone in reducing cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in diabetic kidney disease trial

Background: Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. Patients and Methods: The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate >= 25 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio >= 30 to <= 5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level alpha = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. Conclusions: FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049

Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure &lt; 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate &lt; 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation