INTER-annual/decadal variability of the north Aegean Sea hydrodynamics over 1960-2000

Results from a high-resolution hindcast model experiment, supported by available observations, reveal an increasing salinity trend in the north Aegean during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT), largely controlled by increases in the flow rate and salinity of water masses of Levantine origin entering the domain through the Myconos-Ikaria strait as a response to an acceleration of the Aegean thermohaline cell. Changes in the Dardanelles inflow (increasing salinity) and in the surface freshwater flux (increasing Evaporation-Precipitation), although both contribute to a higher salt content of the basin during the EMT, play a minor role in the inter-annual/decadal variability of the freshwater budget. A long-term decreasing temperature trend is observed from the 1960s to the early 1990s. It is superimposed on the salinity-preconditioning phase over the 1980s and early 1990s. Both signals are, concomitantly, favouring conditions for intense Dense Water Formation (DWF) in the north Aegean Sea. In addition, the northward displacement of the Black Sea Water front over the EMT, leads to the expansion of convective cells towards the north and to higher formation rates associated with both colder and saltier surface waters

The evolving role of oestrogen receptor beta in clinical breast cancer

Controversy surrounds the potential clinical importance of oestrogen receptor (ER)β in breast cancer, and three recent papers have sought to resolve this. In the present issue of Breast Cancer Research Novelli and colleagues explored the significance of ERβ1 expression in 936 breast cancer patients, and they showed diverse relationships according to lymph node status. A second paper examined 442 breast cancers in which ERβ1 was an independent predictor of recurrence, disease-free survival and overall survival. Finally a third paper showed that ERβ2 was a powerful prognostic indicator in 757 breast cancers but this was dependent on cellular location, with nuclear ERβ2 expression predicting good survival whilst cytoplasmic expression predicted worse outcome. These papers point to a clinical role for ERβ in breast cancer and shall be discussed

Operational ocean forecasting in the Eastern Mediterranean: implementation and evaluation

The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System (CYCOFOS) has been producing operational flow forecasts of the northeastern Levantine Basin since 2002 and has been substantially improved in 2005. CYCOFOS uses the POM flow model, and recently, within the frame of the MFSTEP project, the flow model was upgraded to use the hourly SKIRON atmospheric forcing, and its resolution was increased from 2.5 km to 1.8 km. The CYCOFOS model is now nested in the ALERMO regional model from the University of Athens, which is nested within the MFS basin model. The Variational Initialization and FOrcing Platform (VIFOP) has been implemented to reduce the numerical transient processes following initialization. Moreover, a five-day forecast is repeated every day, providing more detailed and more accurate information. Forecast results are posted on the web page http://www.oceanography.ucy.ac.cy/cycofos. The new, daily, high-resolution forecasts agree well with the ALERMO regional model. The agreement is better and results more reasonable when VIFOP is used. Active and slave experiments suggest that a four-week active period produces realistic results with more small-scale features. For runs in September 2004, biases with remote sensing sea surface temperature are less than 0.6°C with similar expressions of the flow field present in both. Remotely-observed coastal upwelling south of Cyprus and advection of cool water from the Rhodes Gyre to the southern shores of Cyprus are also modeled. In situ observed hydrographic data from south of Cyprus are similar to the corresponding forecast fields. Both indicate the relatively fresh subsurface Atlantic Water and a near-surface anticyclone south of Cyprus for August/September of 2004 and September 2005. Plans for further model improvement include assimilation of observed XBT temperature profiles, CTD profiles from drifters and gliders, and CT data from the CYCOFOS ocean observatory

NEMO-ICB (v1.0): interactive icebergs in the NEMO ocean model globally configured at eddy-permitting resolution

An established iceberg module, ICB, is used interactively with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model in a new implementation, NEMO–ICB (v1.0). A 30-year hindcast (1976–2005) simulation with an eddy-permitting (0.25°) global configuration of NEMO–ICB is undertaken to evaluate the influence of icebergs on sea ice, hydrography, mixed layer depths (MLDs), and ocean currents, through comparison with a control simulation in which the equivalent iceberg mass flux is applied as coastal runoff, a common forcing in ocean models. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), drift and melting of icebergs are in balance after around 5 years, whereas the equilibration timescale for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is 15–20 years. Iceberg drift patterns, and Southern Ocean iceberg mass, compare favourably with available observations. Freshwater forcing due to iceberg melting is most pronounced very locally, in the coastal zone around much of Antarctica, where it often exceeds in magnitude and opposes the negative freshwater fluxes associated with sea ice freezing. However, at most locations in the polar Southern Ocean, the annual-mean freshwater flux due to icebergs, if present, is typically an order of magnitude smaller than the contribution of sea ice melting and precipitation. A notable exception is the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, where iceberg melting reaches around 50% of net precipitation over a large area. Including icebergs in place of coastal runoff, sea ice concentration and thickness are notably decreased at most locations around Antarctica, by up to ~ 20% in the eastern Weddell Sea, with more limited increases, of up to ~ 10% in the Bellingshausen Sea. Antarctic sea ice mass decreases by 2.9%, overall. As a consequence of changes in net freshwater forcing and sea ice, salinity and temperature distributions are also substantially altered. Surface salinity increases by ~ 0.1 psu around much of Antarctica, due to suppressed coastal runoff, with extensive freshening at depth, extending to the greatest depths in the polar Southern Ocean where discernible effects on both salinity and temperature reach 2500 m in the Weddell Sea by the last pentad of the simulation. Substantial physical and dynamical responses to icebergs, throughout the global ocean, are explained by rapid propagation of density anomalies from high-to-low latitudes. Complementary to the baseline model used here, three prototype modifications to NEMO–ICB are also introduced and discussed

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges” (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a “business as usual” scenario. For “CO2 stabilisation” scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability

Fibronectin rescues estrogen receptor α from lysosomal degradation in breast cancer cells

Estrogen receptor α (ERα) is expressed in tissues as diverse as brains and mammary glands. In breast cancer, ERα is a key regulator of tumor progression. Therefore, understanding what activates ERα is critical for cancer treatment in particular and cell biology in general. Using biochemical approaches and superresolution microscopy, we show that estrogen drives membrane ERα into endosomes in breast cancer cells and that its fate is determined by the presence of fibronectin (FN) in the extracellular matrix; it is trafficked to lysosomes in the absence of FN and avoids the lysosomal compartment in its presence. In this context, FN prolongs ERα half-life and strengthens its transcriptional activity. We show that ERα is associated with β1-integrin at the membrane, and this integrin follows the same endocytosis and subcellular trafficking pathway triggered by estrogen. Moreover, ERα+ vesicles are present within human breast tissues, and colocalization with β1-integrin is detected primarily in tumors. Our work unravels a key, clinically relevant mechanism of microenvironmental regulation of ERα signaling.Fil: Sampayo, Rocío Guadalupe. Universidad Nacional de San Martin. Instituto de Nanosistemas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Oncología "Ángel H. Roffo"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Toscani, Andrés Martin. Universidad Nacional de Luján; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Rubashkin, Matthew G.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Thi, Kate. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Masullo, Luciano Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Violi, Ianina Lucila. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Bionanociencias "Elizabeth Jares Erijman"; ArgentinaFil: Lakins, Jonathon N.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Caceres, Alfredo Oscar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigación Médica Mercedes y Martín Ferreyra. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Investigación Médica Mercedes y Martín Ferreyra; ArgentinaFil: Hines, William C.. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Coluccio Leskow, Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Luján; ArgentinaFil: Stefani, Fernando Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Chialvo, Dante Renato. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Escuela de Ciencia y Tecnología. Centro Internacional de Estudios Avanzados; ArgentinaFil: Bissell, Mina J.. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Weaver, Valerie M.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Simian, Marina. Universidad Nacional de San Martin. Instituto de Nanosistemas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Oncología "Ángel H. Roffo"; Argentin

A divergent role for estrogen receptor-beta in node-positive and node-negative breast cancer classified according to molecular subtypes: an observational prospective study

Introduction: Estrogen receptor-alpha (ER-alpha) and progesterone receptor (PgR) are consolidated predictors of response to hormonal therapy (HT). In contrast, little information regarding the role of estrogen receptor-beta (ER-beta) in various breast cancer risk groups treated with different therapeutic regimens is available. In particular, there are no data concerning ER-beta distribution within the novel molecular breast cancer subtypes luminal A (LA) and luminal B (LB), HER2 (HS), and triple-negative (TN). Methods: We conducted an observational prospective study using immunohistochemistry to evaluate ER-beta expression in 936 breast carcinomas. Associations with conventional biopathological factors and with molecular subtypes were analyzed by multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), while univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis and classification and regression tree analysis were applied to determine the impact of ER-beta on disease-free survival in the 728 patients with complete follow-up data. Results: ER-beta evenly distributes (55.5%) across the four molecular breast cancer subtypes, confirming the lack of correlation between ER-beta and classical prognosticators. However, the relationships among the biopathological factors, analyzed by MCA, showed that ER-beta positivity is located in the quadrant containing more aggressive phenotypes such as HER2 and TN or ER-alpha/PgR/Bcl2- tumors. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis identified ER-beta as a significant discriminating factor for disease-free survival both in the node-negative LA (P = 0.02) subgroup, where it is predictive of response to HT, and in the node-positive LB (P = 0.04) group, where, in association with PgR negativity, it conveys a higher risk of relapse. Conclusion: Our data indicated that, in contrast to node-negative patients, in node-positive breast cancer patients, ER-beta positivity appears to be a biomarker related to a more aggressive clinical course. In this context, further investigations are necessary to better assess the role of the different ER-beta isoforms