Benefits and pitfalls of captive conservation genetic management: evaluating diversity in scimitar-horned oryx to support reintroduction planning

The reintroduction of the scimitar-horned oryx to Chad is a multi-disciplinary endeavour, planned and implemented over the past decade, utilizing a wide range of conservation science applications to maximise the chances of long-term population sustainability. The principle of incorporating genetic diversity information into founder selection for species reintroductions is widely recognized; however, in practice, a full assessment of available ex-situ genetic variation is rarely attempted prior to identifying individuals for release.In this study we present the results of over ten years of research analyzing and interpreting the genetic diversity present in the key source populations for the Chad scimitar-horned oryx reintroduction. Three empirical genetic datasets (mitochondrial DNA sequence, nuclear DNA microsatellite and SNP markers) comprising over 500 individuals sampled from public and private institutions were analysed, accompanied by simulation studies to address applied questions relating to management of the reintroduction.The results strongly demonstrate the importance of conservation genetic analysis in ensuring that founders represent the greatest breadth of evolutionary diversity available. The inclusion of both intensively and lightly managed collections allowed us to bridge the gap between studbook and group managed populations, enabling the inclusion of individuals from populations that lack historic data on their origins, but which may hold unique diversity of significant conservation value. Importantly, however, our study also reveals the potential risks of applying standard population genetic approaches to multiple captive populations, for which small founder sizes are likely to strongly bias results, with potentially serious consequences for the genetic management of conservation breeding programmes

Prevalência de uso de dispositivos eletrônicos para fumar e de uso de narguilé no Brasil: Para onde estamos caminhando?

Objective: To describe the prevalence of use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) and waterpipe in Brazil, by population subgroups, and to evaluate the trend between 2013 and 2019. Methods: We used data from the 2019 National Health Survey (PNS) to estimate the prevalence of ever and current use of ENDS and current use of waterpipes by socio-behavioral characteristics. Differences in prevalence over time were calculated using data from the BHSU-III-2015 (III Brazilian Household Survey on Substance Use) and the PNS-2013. Results: For 2019, the prevalence of current use of ENDS was estimated at 0.64% (~ 1 million people), of which ~70% were 15-24 years old. The highest prevalence was observed in the Midwest region, but the Southeast concentrates half of these users. Almost 90% are non-smokers, and higher prevalence were found among those who also use waterpipe and abusive alcohol. There was an increase in ENDS use between 2015 and 2019, particularly among younger people. The prevalence of current waterpipe use in 2019 was estimated at 0.47% (~ 800,000 individuals), of which ~80% were 15-24 years old. There was an increase in the prevalence of current waterpipe use between 2013 and 2019, and among young people the increase was ~300%. Conclusions: In Brazil, ENDS have been used mostly by young people, and by never smokers of manufactured cigarettes. The use of DEF and waterpipe has been increasing, even with the country's regulatory restrictions, which may compromise the successful history of the tobacco control policy.Objetivo: Descrever as prevalências de uso de dispositivos eletrônicos para fumar (DEF) e de narguilé no Brasil, por subgrupos populacionais, e avaliar tendência entre 2013 e 2019. Métodos: Os dados principais analisados são da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde (PNS) de 2019. Estimou-se prevalências de uso na vida e atual de DEF e de uso atual de narguilé segundo características sócio-comportamentais. Os dados da PNS-2019 sobre DEF foram comparados aos do III-LNUD-2015 (III Levantamento Nacional sobre Uso de Drogas pela População Brasileira) e os dados sobre narguilé comparados à PNS-2013. Resultados: Para 2019, estimou-se a prevalência de uso atual de DEF em 0,64% (~1 milhão de pessoas), dos quais ~70% tinham 15-24 anos. Maior prevalência está na região Centro-Oeste, mas o Sudeste concentra metade absoluta desses usuários. Quase 90% são não fumantes, e maiores prevalências foram encontradas entre quem usa também narguilé e álcool abusivo. Observou-se aumento nas estimativas de uso de DEF entre 2015 e 2019, especialmente entre os mais jovens. A prevalência de uso atual de narguilé em 2019 foi estimada em 0,47% (~800 mil indivíduos), dos quais ~80% tinham 15-24 anos. Houve aumento na prevalência de uso atual de narguilé entre 2013 e 2019, e entre jovens o aumento foi de ~300%. Conclusões: No Brasil os DEF têm sido utilizados majoritariamente por jovens, e por nunca fumantes de cigarros industrializados. O uso de DEF e de narguilé vêm aumentando, mesmo com as restrições regulatórias do país, podendo comprometer o exitoso histórico da política de controle do tabagismo

Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens