An efficient and versatile approach to trust and reputation using hierarchical Bayesian modelling

In many dynamic open systems, autonomous agents must interact with one another to achieve their goals. Such agents may be self-interested and, when trusted to perform an action, may betray that trust by not performing the action as required. Due to the scale and dynamism of these systems, agents will often need to interact with other agents with which they have little or no past experience. Each agent must therefore be capable of assessing and identifying reliable interaction partners, even if it has no personal experience with them. To this end, we present HABIT, a Hierarchical And Bayesian Inferred Trust model for assessing how much an agent should trust its peers based on direct and third party information. This model is robust in environments in which third party information is malicious, noisy, or otherwise inaccurate. Although existing approaches claim to achieve this, most rely on heuristics with little theoretical foundation. In contrast, HABIT is based exclusively on principled statistical techniques: it can cope with multiple discrete or continuous aspects of trustee behaviour; it does not restrict agents to using a single shared representation of behaviour; it can improve assessment by using any observed correlation between the behaviour of similar trustees or information sources; and it provides a pragmatic solution to the whitewasher problem (in which unreliable agents assume a new identity to avoid bad reputation). In this paper, we describe the theoretical aspects of HABIT, and present experimental results that demonstrate its ability to predict agent behaviour in both a simulated environment, and one based on data from a real-world webserver domain. In particular, these experiments show that HABIT can predict trustee performance based on multiple representations of behaviour, and is up to twice as accurate as BLADE, an existing state-of-the-art trust model that is both statistically principled and has been previously shown to outperform a number of other probabilistic trust models

Structure-from-Motion-Derived Digital Surface Models from Historical Aerial Photographs: A New 3D Application for Coastal Dune Monitoring

Recent advances in structure-from-motion (SfM) techniques have proliferated the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the monitoring of coastal landform changes, particularly when applied in the reconstruction of 3D surface models from historical aerial photographs. Here, we explore a number of depth map filtering and point cloud cleaning methods using the commercial software Agisoft Metashape Pro to determine the optimal methodology to build reliable digital surface models (DSMs). Twelve different aerial photography-derived DSMs are validated and compared against light detection and ranging (LiDAR)- and UAV-derived DSMs of a vegetated coastal dune system that has undergone several decades of coastline retreat. The different studied methods showed an average vertical error (root mean square error, RMSE) of approximately 1 m, with the best method resulting in an error value of 0.93 m. In our case, the best method resulted from the removal of confidence values in the range of 0–3 from the dense point cloud (DPC), with no filter applied to the depth maps. Differences among the methods examined were associated with the reconstruction of the dune slipface. The application of the modern SfM methodology to the analysis of historical aerial (vertical) photography is a novel (and reliable) new approach that can be used to better quantify coastal dune volume changes. DSMs derived from suitable historical aerial photographs, therefore, represent dependable sources of 3D data that can be used to better analyse long-term geomorphic changes in coastal dune areas that have undergone retreat

Global Search for New Physics with 2.0/fb at CDF

Data collected in Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron are searched for indications of new electroweak-scale physics. Rather than focusing on particular new physics scenarios, CDF data are analyzed for discrepancies with the standard model prediction. A model-independent approach (Vista) considers gross features of the data, and is sensitive to new large cross-section physics. Further sensitivity to new physics is provided by two additional algorithms: a Bump Hunter searches invariant mass distributions for "bumps" that could indicate resonant production of new particles; and the Sleuth procedure scans for data excesses at large summed transverse momentum. This combined global search for new physics in 2.0/fb of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV reveals no indication of physics beyond the standard model.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures. Final version which appeared in Physical Review D Rapid Communication

Observation of Orbitally Excited B_s Mesons

We report the first observation of two narrow resonances consistent with states of orbitally excited (L=1) B_s mesons using 1 fb^{-1} of ppbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We use two-body decays into K^- and B^+ mesons reconstructed as B^+ \to J/\psi K^+, J/\psi \to \mu^+ \mu^- or B^+ \to \bar{D}^0 \pi^+, \bar{D}^0 \to K^+ \pi^-. We deduce the masses of the two states to be m(B_{s1}) = 5829.4 +- 0.7 MeV/c^2 and m(B_{s2}^*) = 5839.7 +- 0.7 MeV/c^2.Comment: Version accepted and published by Phys. Rev. Let

Population connectivity of the highly migratory shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus Rafinesque 1810) and implications for management in the Southern Hemisphere

Published: 20 November 2018In this paper we combine analyses of satellite telemetry and molecular data to investigate spatial connectivity and genetic structure among populations of shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) in and around Australian waters, where this species is taken in recreational and commercial fisheries. Mitochondrial DNA data suggest matrilineal substructure across hemispheres, while nuclear DNA data indicate shortfin mako may constitute a globally panmictic population. There was generally high genetic connectivity within Australian waters. Assessing genetic connectivity across the Indian Ocean basin, as well as the extent that shortfin mako exhibit sex biases in dispersal patterns would benefit from future improved sampling of adult size classes, particularly of individuals from the eastern Indian Ocean. Telemetry data indicated that Australasian mako are indeed highly migratory and frequently make long-distance movements. However, individuals also exhibit fidelity to relatively small geographic areas for extended periods. Together these patterns suggest that shortfin mako populations may be genetically homogenous across large geographical areas as a consequence of few reproductively active migrants, although spatial partitioning exists. Given that connectivity appears to occur at different scales, management at both the national and regional levels seems most appropriate.Shannon Corrigan, Andrew D. Lowther, Luciano B. Beheregaray, Barry D. Bruce, Geremy Cliff, Clinton A. Duffy, Alan Foulis, Malcolm P. Francis, Simon D. Goldsworthy, John R. Hyde, Rima W. Jabado, Dovi Kacev, Lindsay Marshall, Gonzalo R. Mucientes, Gavin J. P. Naylor, Julian G. Pepperell, Nuno Queiroz, William T. White, Sabine P. Wintner and Paul J. Roger

Measurement of the ttbar Production Cross Section in ppbar collisions at sqrt s = 1.96 TeV in the All Hadronic Decay Mode

We report a measurement of the ttbar production cross section using the CDF-II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. The analysis is performed using 311 pb-1 of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV. The data consist of events selected with six or more hadronic jets with additional kinematic requirements. At least one of these jets must be identified as a b-quark jet by the reconstruction of a secondary vertex. The cross section is measured to be sigma(tbart)=7.5+-2.1(stat.)+3.3-2.2(syst.)+0.5-0.4(lumi.) pb, which is consistent with the standard model prediction.Comment: By CDF collaboratio

Search for chargino-neutralino production in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV

We present the results of a search for associated production of the chargino and neutralino supersymmetric particles using up to 1.1 fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II experiment at the Tevatron ppbar collider at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The search is conducted by analyzing events with a large transverse momentum imbalance and either three charged leptons or two charged leptons of the same electric charge. The numbers of observed events are found to be consistent with standard model expectations. Upper limits on the production cross section are derived in different theoretical models. In one of these models a lower limit on the mass of the chargino is set at 129 GeV/c^2 at the 95% confidence level.Comment: To be submitted to Phys.Rev.Let

Search for charged Higgs bosons in decays of top quarks in p-pbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV

7 pages, 2 figuresWe report the recent charged Higgs search in top quark decays in 2.2/fb CDF data. This is the first attempt to search for charged Higgs using fully reconstructed mass assuming H->c-sbar in small tan beta region. No evidence of a charged Higgs is observed in the CDF data, hence 95% upper limits are placed at B(t->H+b)We report on the first direct search for charged Higgs bosons decaying into cs̅ in tt̅ events produced by pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96  TeV. The search uses a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.2  fb-1 collected by the CDF II detector at Fermilab and looks for a resonance in the invariant mass distribution of two jets in the lepton+jets sample of tt̅ candidates. We observe no evidence of charged Higgs bosons in top quark decays. Hence, 95% upper limits on the top quark decay branching ratio are placed at B(t→H+b)< 0.1 to 0.3 for charged Higgs boson masses of 60 to 150  GeV/c2 assuming B(H+→cs̅ )=1.0. The upper limits on B(t→H+b) are also used as model-independent limits on the decay branching ratio of top quarks to generic scalar charged bosons beyond the standard model.Peer reviewe

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

First sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope results. VI. Testing the black hole metric

Galaxie