Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Національно-демократичні об'єднання та політичні партії в Україні кінця XIX - початку XX століття

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has become increasingly important for the treatment and relief of neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease, tremor, dystonia and psychiatric illness. As DBS implantations and any other stereotactic and functional surgical procedure require accurate, precise and safe targeting of the brain structure, the technical aids for preoperative planning, intervention and postoperative follow-up have become increasingly important. The aim of this paper was to give and overview, from a biomedical engineering perspective, of a typical implantation procedure and current supporting techniques. Furthermore, emerging technical aids not yet clinically established are presented. This includes the state-of-the-art of neuroimaging and navigation, patient-specific simulation of DBS electric field, optical methods for intracerebral guidance, movement pattern analysis, intraoperative data visualisation and trends related to new stimulation devices. As DBS surgery already today is an important technology intensive domain, an "intuitive visualisation" interface for improving management of these data in relation to surgery is suggested

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders during 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. Methods We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, medication overuse headache, brain and nervous system cancers, and a residual category of other neurological disorders. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility, to identify patterns associated with development and how countries fare against expected outcomes relative to their level of development. Findings Neurological disorders ranked as the leading cause group of DALYs in 2015 (250·7 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 229·1 to 274·7] million, comprising 10·2% of global DALYs) and the second-leading cause group of deaths (9·4 [9·1 to 9·7] million], comprising 16·8% of global deaths). The most prevalent neurological disorders were tension-type headache (1505·9 [UI 1337·3 to 1681·6 million cases]), migraine (958·8 [872·1 to 1055·6] million), medication overuse headache (58·5 [50·8 to 67·4 million]), and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (46·0 [40·2 to 52·7 million]). Between 1990 and 2015, the number of deaths from neurological disorders increased by 36·7%, and the number of DALYs by 7·4%. These increases occurred despite decreases in age-standardised rates of death and DALYs of 26·1% and 29·7%, respectively; stroke and communicable neurological disorders were responsible for most of these decreases. Communicable neurological disorders were the largest cause of DALYs in countries with low SDI. Stroke rates were highest at middle levels of SDI and lowest at the highest SDI. Most of the changes in DALY rates of neurological disorders with development were driven by changes in YLLs. Interpretation Neurological disorders are an important cause of disability and death worldwide. Globally, the burden of neurological disorders has increased substantially over the past 25 years because of expanding population numbers and ageing, despite substantial decreases in mortality rates from stroke and communicable neurological disorders. The number of patients who will need care by clinicians with expertise in neurological conditions will continue to grow in coming decades. Policy makers and health-care providers should be aware of these trends to provide adequate services

Modeling the pharmacodynamics of passive membrane permeability

Small molecule permeability through cellular membranes is critical to a better understanding of pharmacodynamics and the drug discovery endeavor. Such permeability may be estimated as a function of the free energy change of barrier crossing by invoking the barrier domain model, which posits that permeation is limited by passage through a single “barrier domain” and assumes diffusivity differences among compounds of similar structure are negligible. Inspired by the work of Rezai and co-workers (JACS 128:14073–14080, 2006), we estimate this free energy change as the difference in implicit solvation free energies in chloroform and water, but extend their model to include solute conformational affects. Using a set of eleven structurally diverse FDA approved compounds and a set of thirteen congeneric molecules, we show that the solvation free energies are dominated by the global minima, which allows solute conformational distributions to be effectively neglected. For the set of tested compounds, the best correlation with experiment is obtained when the implicit chloroform global minimum is used to evaluate the solvation free energy difference

Identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates in Bangladesh by a species distinguishable multiplex PCR

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Species identification of isolates belonging to the <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis </it>complex (MTC) seems to be important for the appropriate treatment of patients, since <it>M. bovis </it>is naturally resistant to a first line anti-tuberculosis (TB) drug, pyrazinamide, while most of the other MTC members are susceptible to this antimicrobial agent. A simple and low-cost differentiation method was needed in higher TB burden countries, such as Bangladesh, where the prevalence of <it>M. bovis </it>among people or cattle has not been investigated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Genetic regions <it>cfp32</it>, RD9 and RD12 were chosen as targets for a species distinguishable multiplex PCR and the system was evaluated with twenty reference strains of mycobacterial species including non-tubercular mycobacteria (NTM). A total of 350 clinical MTC isolates obtained in Bangladesh were then analyzed with this multiplex PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All of the MTC reference strains gave expected banding patterns and no non-specific amplifications were observed in the NTM strains. Out of 350 clinical isolates examined by this method, 347 (99.1%) were positive for all of the <it>cfp32</it>, RD9 and RD12 and determined as <it>M. tuberculosis</it>. Two isolates lacked <it>cfp32 </it>PCR product and one lacked RD12, however, those three samples were further examined and identified as <it>M. tuberculosis </it>by the sequence analyses of <it>hsp65 </it>and <it>gyrB</it>.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The MTC-discrimination multiplex PCR (MTCD-MPCR) developed in this study showed high specificity and was thought to be very useful as a routine test because of its simplicity. In the current survey, all the 350 MTC isolates obtained from Bangladesh TB patients were determined as <it>M. tuberculosis </it>and no other MTC were detected. This result suggested the general TB treatment regimen including pyrazinamide to be the first choice in Bangladesh.</p

CNS Infiltration of Peripheral Immune Cells: D-Day for Neurodegenerative Disease?

While the central nervous system (CNS) was once thought to be excluded from surveillance by immune cells, a concept known as “immune privilege,” it is now clear that immune responses do occur in the CNS—giving rise to the field of neuroimmunology. These CNS immune responses can be driven by endogenous (glial) and/or exogenous (peripheral leukocyte) sources and can serve either productive or pathological roles. Recent evidence from mouse models supports the notion that infiltration of peripheral monocytes/macrophages limits progression of Alzheimer's disease pathology and militates against West Nile virus encephalitis. In addition, infiltrating T lymphocytes may help spare neuronal loss in models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. On the other hand, CNS leukocyte penetration drives experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (a mouse model for the human demyelinating disease multiple sclerosis) and may also be pathological in both Parkinson's disease and human immunodeficiency virus encephalitis. A critical understanding of the cellular and molecular mechanisms responsible for trafficking of immune cells from the periphery into the diseased CNS will be key to target these cells for therapeutic intervention in neurodegenerative diseases, thereby allowing neuroregenerative processes to ensue

Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study.

Importance:Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. Objective:To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants:This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018. Exposures:Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures:Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. Results:Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle-SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile. Conclusions and Relevance:Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years

Diseases, injuries, and risk factors in child and adolescent health, 1990 to 2017: Findings from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors 2017 study

Importance Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. Objective To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018. Exposures Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. Results Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle–SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile. Conclusions and Relevance Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years