157 research outputs found

    Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Search for new physics with dijet angular distributions in proton-proton collisions at root S = 13 TeV

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    Search for supersymmetry in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV using identified top quarks

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    A search for supersymmetry is presented based on proton-proton collision events containing identified hadronically decaying top quarks, no leptons, and an imbalance p(T)(miss) in transverse momentum. The data were collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). Search regions are defined in terms of the multiplicity of bottom quark jet and top quark candidates, the p(T)(miss) , the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta, and themT2 mass variable. No statistically significant excess of events is observed relative to the expectation from the standard model. Lower limits on the masses of supersymmetric particles are determined at 95% confidence level in the context of simplified models with top quark production. For a model with direct top squark pair production followed by the decay of each top squark to a top quark and a neutralino, top squark masses up to 1020 GeVand neutralino masses up to 430 GeVare excluded. For amodel with pair production of gluinos followed by the decay of each gluino to a top quark-antiquark pair and a neutralino, gluino masses up to 2040 GeVand neutralino masses up to 1150 GeVare excluded. These limits extend previous results.Peer reviewe

    Search for light bosons in decays of the 125 GeV Higgs boson in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV

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    Measurement of the top quark mass using single top quark events in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV

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    Search for Evidence of the Type-III Seesaw Mechanism in Multilepton Final States in Proton-Proton Collisions at root s=13 TeV

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    Search for single production of vector-like quarks decaying into a b quark and a W boson in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

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    Search for Higgsino pair production in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV in final states with large missing transverse momentum and two Higgs bosons decaying via H -> b(b)over bar

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    Results are reported from a search for new physics in 13 TeV proton-proton collisions in the final state with large missing transverse momentum and two Higgs bosons decaying via H -> b(b)over bar. The search uses a data sample accumulated by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The search is motivated by models based on gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking, which predict the electroweak production of a pair of Higgsinos, each of which can decay via a cascade process to a Higgs boson and an undetected lightest supersymmetric particle. The observed event yields in the signal regions are consistent with the standard model background expectation obtained from control regions in data. Higgsinos in the mass range 230-770 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level in the context of a simplified model for the production and decay of approximately degenerate Higgsinos.Peer reviewe

    Search for a light pseudoscalar Higgs boson produced in association with bottom quarks in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

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