On booms that never bust: ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles

We study the effect of ambiguity on the formation of bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets à la Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988) by allowing for ambiguity in the fundamental value of the asset. Although bubbles form in both the ambiguous and the risky environments we find that asset prices tend to be lower when the fundamental value is ambiguous than when it is risky. Bubbles do not crash in the ambiguous case whereas they do so in the risky one. These findings, regarding depressed prices and the absence of crashes in the presence of ambiguity, are in line with recent theoretical work stressing the crucial role of ambiguity to account for surprisingly low equity prices (high returns) as well as herding in asset markets

Clinical pharmacogenomic testing of KRAS, BRAF and EGFR mutations by high resolution melting analysis and ultra-deep pyrosequencing

BACKGROUND: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and its downstream factors KRAS and BRAF are mutated in several types of cancer, affecting the clinical response to EGFR inhibitors. Mutations in the EGFR kinase domain predict sensitivity to the tyrosine kinase inhibitors gefitinib and erlotinib in lung adenocarcinoma, while activating point mutations in KRAS and BRAF confer resistance to the anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody cetuximab in colorectal cancer. The development of new generation methods for systematic mutation screening of these genes will allow more appropriate therapeutic choices. METHODS: We describe a high resolution melting (HRM) assay for mutation detection in EGFR exons 19-21, KRAS codon 12/13 and BRAF V600 using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples. Somatic variation of KRAS exon 2 was also analysed by massively parallel pyrosequencing of amplicons with the GS Junior 454 platform. RESULTS: We tested 120 routine diagnostic specimens from patients with colorectal or lung cancer. Mutations in KRAS, BRAF and EGFR were observed in 41.9%, 13.0% and 11.1% of the overall samples, respectively, being mutually exclusive. For KRAS, six types of substitutions were detected (17 G12D, 9 G13D, 7 G12C, 2 G12A, 2 G12V, 2 G12S), while V600E accounted for all the BRAF activating mutations. Regarding EGFR, two cases showed exon 19 deletions (delE746-A750 and delE746-T751insA) and another two substitutions in exon 21 (one showed L858R with the resistance mutation T590M in exon 20, and the other had P848L mutation). Consistent with earlier reports, our results show that KRAS and BRAF mutation frequencies in colorectal cancer were 44.3% and 13.0%, respectively, while EGFR mutations were detected in 11.1% of the lung cancer specimens. Ultra-deep amplicon pyrosequencing successfully validated the HRM results and allowed detection and quantitation of KRAS somatic mutations. CONCLUSIONS: HRM is a rapid and sensitive method for moderate-throughput cost-effective screening of oncogene mutations in clinical samples. Rather than Sanger sequence validation, next-generation sequencing technology results in more accurate quantitative results in somatic variation and can be achieved at a higher throughput scale.This work was supported by grants from Spanish Health Ministry (FIS) network RIRAAF (RD 07/0064).Ye

Registered Replication Report: Rand, Greene & Nowak (2012)

In an anonymous 4-person economic game, participants contributed more money to a common project (i.e., cooperated) when required to decide quickly than when forced to delay their decision (Rand, Greene & Nowak, 2012), a pattern consistent with the “social heuristics” hypothesis proposed by Rand and colleagues. The results of studies using time pressure have been mixed, with some replication attempts observing similar patterns (e.g., Rand et al., 2014) and others observing null effects (e.g., Tinghög et al., 2013, Verkoeijen et al., 2014). This Registered Replication Report (RRR) assessed the size and variability of the effect of time pressure on cooperative decisions by combining 21 separate, pre-registered replications of the critical conditions from Study 7 of the original paper (Rand et al., 2012). The primary planned analysis used data from all participants who were randomly assigned to conditions and who met the protocol inclusion criteria (an intent-to-treat approach that included the 65.9% of participants in the Time Pressure condition and 7.5% in the Forced Delay condition who did not adhere to the time constraints), and observed a difference in contributions of -0.37 percentage points, compared to an 8.6 percentage point difference calculated from the original data. Analyzing the data as the original paper did, including data only for participants who complied with the time constraints, the RRR observed a 10.37 percentage point difference in contributions compared to a 15.31 percentage point difference in the original study. In combination, the results of the intent-to-treat analysis and the compliant-only analysis are consistent with the presence of selection biases and the absence of a causal effect of time pressure on cooperation

Registered Replication Report: Rand, Greene, and Nowak (2012)

In an anonymous 4-person economic game, participants contributed more money to a common project (i.e., cooperated) when required to decide quickly than when forced to delay their decision (Rand, Greene & Nowak, 2012), a pattern consistent with the social heuristics hypothesis proposed by Rand and colleagues. The results of studies using time pressure have been mixed, with some replication attempts observing similar patterns (e.g., Rand et al., 2014) and others observing null effects (e.g., Tinghög et al., 2013; Verkoeijen & Bouwmeester, 2014). This Registered Replication Report (RRR) assessed the size and variability of the effect of time pressure on cooperative decisions by combining 21 separate, preregistered replications of the critical conditions from Study 7 of the original article (Rand et al., 2012). The primary planned analysis used data from all participants who were randomly assigned to conditions and who met the protocol inclusion criteria (an intent-to-treat approach that included the 65.9% of participants in the time-pressure condition and 7.5% in the forced-delay condition who did not adhere to the time constraints), and we observed a difference in contributions of −0.37 percentage points compared with an 8.6 percentage point difference calculated from the original data. Analyzing the data as the original article did, including data only for participants who complied with the time constraints, the RRR observed a 10.37 percentage point difference in contributions compared with a 15.31 percentage point difference in the original study. In combination, the results of the intent-to-treat analysis and the compliant-only analysis are consistent with the presence of selection biases and the absence of a causal effect of time pressure on cooperation

Adjustment for time-invariant and time-varying confounders in ‘unexplained residuals’ models for longitudinal data within a causal framework and associated challenges

‘Unexplained residuals’ models have been used within lifecourse epidemiology to model an exposure measured longitudinally at several time points in relation to a distal outcome. It has been claimed that these models have several advantages, including: the ability to estimate multiple total causal effects in a single model, and additional insight into the effect on the outcome of greater-than-expected increases in the exposure compared to traditional regression methods. We evaluate these properties and prove mathematically how adjustment for confounding variables must be made within this modelling framework. Importantly, we explicitly place unexplained residual models in a causal framework using directed acyclic graphs. This allows for theoretical justification of appropriate confounder adjustment and provides a framework for extending our results to more complex scenarios than those examined in this paper. We also discuss several interpretational issues relating to unexplained residual models within a causal framework. We argue that unexplained residual models offer no additional insights compared to traditional regression methods, and, in fact, are more challenging to implement; moreover, they artificially reduce estimated standard errors. Consequently, we conclude that unexplained residual models, if used, must be implemented with great care

The CANDELS/SHARDS multiwavelength catalog in GOODS-N : photometry, photometric redshifts, stellar masses, emission-line fluxes, and star formation rates

We present a WFC3 F160W (H-band) selected catalog in the CANDELS/GOODS-N field containing photometry from the ultraviolet (UV) to the far-infrared (IR), photometric redshifts, and stellar parameters derived from the analysis of the multiwavelength data. The catalog contains 35,445 sources over the 171 arcmin(2) of the CANDELS F160W mosaic. The 5 sigma detection limits (within an aperture of radius 0 ''.17) of the mosaic range between H = 27.8, 28.2, and 28.7 in the wide, intermediate, and deep regions, which span approximately 50%, 15%, and 35% of the total area. The multiwavelength photometry includes broadband data from the UV (U band from KPNO and LBC), optical (HST/ACS F435W, F606W, F775W, F814W, and F850LP), near-to-mid IR (HST/WFC3 F105W, F125W, F140W, and F160W; Subaru/MOIRCS Ks; CFHT/Megacam K; and Spitzer/IRAC 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 mu m), and far-IR (Spitzer/MIPS 24 mu m, HERSCHEL/PACS 100 and 160 mu m, SPIRE 250, 350 and 500 mu m) observations. In addition, the catalog also includes optical medium-band data (R similar to 50) in 25 consecutive bands, lambda = 500-950 nm, from the SHARDS survey and WFC3 IR spectroscopic observations with the G102 and G141 grisms (R similar to 210 and 130). The use of higher spectral resolution data to estimate photometric redshifts provides very high, and nearly uniform, precision from z = 0-2.5. The comparison to 1485 good-quality spectroscopic redshifts up to z similar to 3 yields Delta z/(1 + z(spec)) = 0.0032 and an outlier fraction of eta = 4.3%. In addition to the multiband photometry, we release value-added catalogs with emission-line fluxes, stellar masses, dust attenuations, UV- and IR-based star formation rates, and rest-frame colors

Cut-offs and response criteria for the Hospital Universitario la Princesa Index (HUPI) and their comparison to widely-used indices of disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis

Objective To estimate cut-off points and to establish response criteria for the Hospital Universitario La Princesa Index (HUPI) in patients with chronic polyarthritis. Methods Two cohorts, one of early arthritis (Princesa Early Arthritis Register Longitudinal PEARL] study) and other of long-term rheumatoid arthritis (Estudio de la Morbilidad y Expresión Clínica de la Artritis Reumatoide EMECAR]) including altogether 1200 patients were used to determine cut-off values for remission, and for low, moderate and high activity through receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. The areas under ROC (AUC) were compared to those of validated indexes (SDAI, CDAI, DAS28). ROC analysis was also applied to establish minimal and relevant clinical improvement for HUPI. Results The best cut-off points for HUPI are 2, 5 and 9, classifying RA activity as remission if =2, low disease activity if >2 and =5), moderate if >5 and <9 and high if =9. HUPI''s AUC to discriminate between low-moderate activity was 0.909 and between moderate-high activity 0.887. DAS28''s AUCs were 0.887 and 0.846, respectively; both indices had higher accuracy than SDAI (AUCs: 0.832 and 0.756) and CDAI (AUCs: 0.789 and 0.728). HUPI discriminates remission better than DAS28-ESR in early arthritis, but similarly to SDAI. The HUPI cut-off for minimal clinical improvement was established at 2 and for relevant clinical improvement at 4. Response criteria were established based on these cut-off values. Conclusions The cut-offs proposed for HUPI perform adequately in patients with either early or long term arthritis

The comparative responsiveness of Hospital Universitario Princesa Index and other composite indices for assessing rheumatoid arthritis activity

Objective To evaluate the responsiveness in terms of correlation of the Hospital Universitario La Princesa Index (HUPI) comparatively to the traditional composite indices used to assess disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and to compare the performance of HUPI-based response criteria with that of the EULAR response criteria. Methods Secondary data analysis from the following studies: ACT-RAY (clinical trial), PROAR (early RA cohort) and EMECAR (pre-biologic era long term RA cohort). Responsiveness was evaluated by: 1) comparing change from baseline (Delta) of HUPI with Delta in other scores by calculating correlation coefficients; 2) calculating standardised effect sizes. The accuracy of response by HUPI and by EULAR criteria was analyzed using linear regressions in which the dependent variable was change in global assessment by physician (Delta GDA-Phy). Results Delta HUPI correlation with change in all other indices ranged from 0.387 to 0.791); HUPI's standardized effect size was larger than those from the other indices in each database used. In ACT-RAY, depending on visit, between 65 and 80% of patients were equally classified by HUPI and EULAR response criteria. However, HUPI criteria were slightly more stringent, with higher percentage of patients classified as non-responder, especially at early visits. HUPI response criteria showed a slightly higher accuracy than EULAR response criteria when using Delta GDA-Phy as gold standard. Conclusion HUPI shows good responsiveness in terms of correlation in each studied scenario (clinical trial, early RA cohort, and established RA cohort). Response criteria by HUPI seem more stringent than EULAR''s

Canagliflozin and Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Chronic Kidney Disease in Primary and Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention Groups

Background: Canagliflozin reduces the risk of kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, but effects on specific cardiovascular outcomes are uncertain, as are effects in people without previous cardiovascular disease (primary prevention). Methods: In CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation), 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo on a background of optimized standard of care. Results: Primary prevention participants (n=2181, 49.6%) were younger (61 versus 65 years), were more often female (37% versus 31%), and had shorter duration of diabetes mellitus (15 years versus 16 years) compared with secondary prevention participants (n=2220, 50.4%). Canagliflozin reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.67-0.95]; P=0.01), with consistent reductions in both the primary (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.49-0.94]) and secondary (HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.69-1.06]) prevention groups (P for interaction=0.25). Effects were also similar for the components of the composite including cardiovascular death (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.61-1.00]), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.59-1.10]), and nonfatal stroke (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.56-1.15]). The risk of the primary composite renal outcome and the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure were also consistently reduced in both the primary and secondary prevention groups (P for interaction &gt;0.5 for each outcome). Conclusions: Canagliflozin significantly reduced major cardiovascular events and kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, including in participants who did not have previous cardiovascular disease