MEDIDAS E DETERMINANTES DA MOBILIDADE DOS RENDIMENTOS DO TRABALHO NO BRASIL

This paper makes an analysis of the evolution of real earnings mobility for Brazilian workers from 1984 to 2001. The evolution of five real earnings mobility indicators is calculated using the Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego data set. The economic and demographic determinants of real earnings mobility in Brazil are estimated using the Fixed Effect Method to the mobility indicators calculated for sample cells. Among the economic variables, the real average earning, the real interest rate and the real minimum wage have a positive effect in earnings mobility; the inflation rate, when controlled by the other variables, has only distributive effects on earnings; the impact of the unemployment rate depends on the concept of mobility adopted. The importance of demographic variables becomes clear when we look at the econometric results. Men, usually, have more mobility than women, except for per capita directional changes in real earnings. Younger groups also have more directional mobility compared to older individuals, but have lower mobility caused by relative trades among them. Education level seems to contribute to diminish the earnings mobility for those that have more than fourteen years of education.

Reforma da previdência: sustentabilidade e justiça atuarial

O artigo analisa a proposta de reforma da previdência social feita pelo governo Temer. Investigamos a sustentabilidade financeira do sistema proposto e a sua justiça atuarial. Consideramos as regras contidas na proposta original do governo. Procuramos dar respostas a duas questões relacionadas: (i) qual deveria ser a alíquota de contribuição para a previdência para que a proposta fosse equilibrada financeiramente?; e (ii) qual a taxa interna de retorno implícita da proposta Temer? Para tanto, desenvolvemos um modelo atuarial que é simulado para a geração que tem 25 anos de idade em 2015 com base na PNAD.  A sustentabilidade financeira do novo sistema é muito sensível ao crescimento da produtividade e da taxa de formalização da economia. Admitindo as taxas atuais de formalização e um crescimento da produtividade de 2% a.a., a alíquota de equilíbrio para o agente representativo do sexo masculino seria de 32%, maior que as alíquotas vigentes (entre 28 e 31). No entanto, a taxa de retorno implícita para o agente representativo é ao redor de 3%, que é significativamente inferior à média das taxas básicas de juros que vigorou na economia brasileira nas últimas décadas.The article analyzes the proposal of social security reform made by the Temer administration.We investigate the financial sustainability of the proposal and its actuarial justice. We considerthe rules contained in the original proposal. We try to answer two related questions: (i) whatshould be the contribution aliquot for the proposal to be financially balanced? and (ii) what isthe implicit internal rate of return of the Temer proposal? For that, we developed an actuarialmodel that is simulated for the generation with 25 years of age in 2015 based on the PNAD.The financial sustainability of the proposal is very sensitive to productivity growth and the formalizationrate of the economy. Assuming the current rates of formalization and productivitygrowth of 2% per year, the equilibrium aliquot for the representative agent would be higherthan the proposed rate of 28%. However, the implicit rate of return for the representativeagent is around 3%, which is significantly lower than the average of the basic interest rates inthe Brazilian economy in the last decades

The budget impact of monoclonal antibodies used to treat metastatic colorectal cancer in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Introduction: Biological medicines have increased the cost of cancer treatments, which also raises concerns about sustainability. In Brazil, three monoclonal antibodies (mAbs)—bevacizumab, cetuximab, and panitumumab—are indicated for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) but not currently funded by the Unified Health System (SUS). However, successful litigation has led to funding in some cases. Objective: Our objective was to evaluate the budgetary impact of including the mAbs bevacizumab, cetuximab, and panitumumab in standard chemotherapy for the treatment of mCRC within the SUS of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil. Method: A budget impact analysis of incorporating mAbs as first-line treatment of mCRC in MG was explored. The perspective taken was that of the Brazilian SUS, and a 5-year time horizon was applied. Data were collected from lawsuits undertaken between January 2009 and December 2016, and the model was populated with data from national databases and published sources. Costs are expressed in $US. Results: In total, 351 lawsuits resulted in funding for first-line treatment with mAbs for mCRC. The three alternative scenarios analyzed resulted in cost increases of 348–395$US103,360,980 compared with the reference scenario over a 5-year time horizon, and bevacizumab and cetuximab had budgetary impacts of $US111,334,890 and 113,772,870, respectively. The use of the anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mAbs (cetuximab and panitumumab) is restricted to the approximately 41$US106 million. Conclusion: These results highlight the appreciable costs for incorporating bevacizumab, cetuximab, and panitumumab into the SUS. Appreciable discounts are likely to be necessary before incorporation of these mAbs is approved

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Rarity of monodominance in hyperdiverse Amazonian forests.

Tropical forests are known for their high diversity. Yet, forest patches do occur in the tropics where a single tree species is dominant. Such "monodominant" forests are known from all of the main tropical regions. For Amazonia, we sampled the occurrence of monodominance in a massive, basin-wide database of forest-inventory plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). Utilizing a simple defining metric of at least half of the trees ≥ 10 cm diameter belonging to one species, we found only a few occurrences of monodominance in Amazonia, and the phenomenon was not significantly linked to previously hypothesized life history traits such wood density, seed mass, ectomycorrhizal associations, or Rhizobium nodulation. In our analysis, coppicing (the formation of sprouts at the base of the tree or on roots) was the only trait significantly linked to monodominance. While at specific locales coppicing or ectomycorrhizal associations may confer a considerable advantage to a tree species and lead to its monodominance, very few species have these traits. Mining of the ATDN dataset suggests that monodominance is quite rare in Amazonia, and may be linked primarily to edaphic factors

Unraveling Amazon tree community assembly using Maximum Information Entropy: a quantitative analysis of tropical forest ecology

In a time of rapid global change, the question of what determines patterns in species abundance distribution remains a priority for understanding the complex dynamics of ecosystems. The constrained maximization of information entropy provides a framework for the understanding of such complex systems dynamics by a quantitative analysis of important constraints via predictions using least biased probability distributions. We apply it to over two thousand hectares of Amazonian tree inventories across seven forest types and thirteen functional traits, representing major global axes of plant strategies. Results show that constraints formed by regional relative abundances of genera explain eight times more of local relative abundances than constraints based on directional selection for specific functional traits, although the latter does show clear signals of environmental dependency. These results provide a quantitative insight by inference from large-scale data using cross-disciplinary methods, furthering our understanding of ecological dynamics

Unraveling Amazon tree community assembly using Maximum Information Entropy: a quantitative analysis of tropical forest ecology

In a time of rapid global change, the question of what determines patterns in species abundance distribution remains a priority for understanding the complex dynamics of ecosystems. The constrained maximization of information entropy provides a framework for the understanding of such complex systems dynamics by a quantitative analysis of important constraints via predictions using least biased probability distributions. We apply it to over two thousand hectares of Amazonian tree inventories across seven forest types and thirteen functional traits, representing major global axes of plant strategies. Results show that constraints formed by regional relative abundances of genera explain eight times more of local relative abundances than constraints based on directional selection for specific functional traits, although the latter does show clear signals of environmental dependency. These results provide a quantitative insight by inference from large-scale data using cross-disciplinary methods, furthering our understanding of ecological dynamics

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear understanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5,6,7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8,9,10,11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world's most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepresented in biodiversity databases.13,14,15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may eliminate pieces of the Amazon's biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological communities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple organism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region's vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most neglected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lost