Trends in Australian political opinion: results from the Australian election study, 1987-2010

Political opinion polls are an inescapable part of everyday life. Government or opposition policies rarely see the light of day without some poll evidence to gauge the public’s response to them. Party leaders are constantly evaluated against their poll ratings, not least by their colleagues, and consistently low ratings can often spell a leader’s demise. And not least, Prime Ministers call elections when they consider the polls to be most favourable to them. Interpreting political opinion polls is sometimes difficult. On particular issues or with regard to particular personalities, opinions may change significantly in a short period of time as a result of an event or a changed circumstance. Small changes in question wordings or in sample design may cause what appear to be significant changes in public opinion when such changes are, in fact, an artefact of the survey’s methodology. The most reliable way in which to monitor trends in public opinion is to examine responses over an extended period of time, using questions asked in the same way and included in surveys that use the same methodology. This monograph presents trends in Australian public opinion on politics over an extended period of time. In most cases, our trends run from 1987 until 2010; in some cases, the same questions have been asked in surveys conducted in 1967, 1969 and 1979, allowing us to extend the time series back another two decades. The 1987 to 2010 trends are based on the Australian Election Study (AES) surveys, comprehensive post-election surveys of political opinion that have asked the same questions and used the same methodology. The 1967, 1969 and 1979 surveys are also comprehensive academic surveys of political opinion; all three surveys were conducted by Don Aitkin, who pioneered the use of the mass public opinion survey in the academic study of politics in Australia. The AES provides the most sophisticated and exhaustive set of data ever collected in Australia on the dynamics of political behaviour. Each of the AES surveys contains questions relating to the role of media and media exposure; general political interest and knowledge; perceptions of the election campaign; party identification and prior voting history; parents’ and partner partisanship; vote in the election and the explanations given for it; party images; perceptions of the major party leaders and the content of their public images; election issues; social policy issues; and a range of socio-demographic measures including education, occupation, religious behaviour, family circumstances, and income

Authoritarian Durability: Public Opinion towards Democracy in Southeast Asia

Abstract: This article explores the extent of authoritarian durability and public opinion towards democracy in Southeast Asia drawing on findings from the Asian Barometer. While Freedom House indicators rank many countries in the region as not free or partially free, a high proportion of citizens within the same countries report that they live in a democracy. Conversely, countries ranked as electoral or liberal democracies have high proportions of citizens who report that they do not live in a democracy. These findings reveal quasi-thermostatic concerns that, when satisfied, open the way for the expression of other concerns. Views about democratic experience reveal differing expectations about democracy among the general public. In general, the results suggest that a high proportion of citizens in Southeast Asia have a rather instrumental view of democracy that is underpinned by perceptions of good governance rather than democratic ideals. Still, while economic growth is considered to be very important, when looking at what matters for a functioning democracy, other measures of good governance such as freedom and equality, trust in government, accountability and responsiveness are considered more important

Local governance and the challenge of religious pluralism in liberal democracies : an Australian perspective

Multiculturalism has gradually retreated as a meaningful concept for Australian identity and has, instead, been replaced by principles of equal citizenship and a commitment to the core values of Australian national identity. This paper firstly locates these shifts in broader theoretical debates underpinning democratic governance and equal citizenship. Secondly, and given that local government is a key constituent of Australia\u27s democratic system, the paper seeks to explore the attitudes of local government representatives towards multicultural services and cultural citizenship in contemporary Australia. The empirical findings of this study show that a minority of local government representatives hold a negative outlook on cultural diversity and multicultural policies. The paper argues that it is important to ensure opportunities for intercultural understanding at the local level are optimised as a way of enhancing full and equal citizenship for all and thus creating greater possibilities for successful integration among religious and cultural minoritie

Public opinion towards new migration flows in Europe and the increasing role of the EU

As the European Union moves towards a common set of policies on immi-gration and asylum, increasing attention to public opinion on immigration suggests that public opinion matters (Anderson 1998; Dalton & Eichenberg 1998; Franklin, Marsh & McLaren 1994). Governments often f ind it diff icult to reconcile public concerns about immigration with the EU project of in-ternal free movement for EU citizen

Leadership Change, Policy Issues and Voter Defection in the 2010 Australian Election

Leadership change formed the backdrop to the 2010 Australian federal election, with the replacement of Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister by Julia Gillard, the country's first female Prime Minister. This article uses the 2010 Australian Election Study to examine patterns of voter defection between the 2007 and 2010 elections. The results show that the predominant influence on defection was how voters rated the leaders. Julia Gillard was popular among female voters and her overall impact on the vote was slightly greater than that of Tony Abbott. Defectors from Labor to the Greens disapproved of Kevin Rudd's dismissal from office. Policy issues were second in importance after leadership, particularly for those moving from the Coalition to Labor, who were concerned about health and unemployment. Overall, the results point to the enduring importance of leaders as the predominant influence on how voters cast their ballot

Estimating International Migration Flows for the Asia-Pacific Region: Application of a Generation-Distribution Model

This is a repository for our paper in Migration Studies. The paper estimates annual flows of international migration among 53 populations in the Asia-Pacific region and four macro world regions from 2000 to 2019 using a generation-distribution framework. This release contains: Simulated input data Code to produce the estimates Final estimated flows in the paper For questions with the code or request for all estimated flows with 1000 iterations, please email [email protected] or [email protected]

Towards a methodical framework for comprehensively assessing forest multifunctionality

Funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. Grant Number: DFG FOR 891/1-3 National Natural Science Foundation of China. Grant Numbers: 30710103907, 30930005, 31170457, 31210103910 Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) Sino-German Centre for Research Promotion in Beijing. Grant Number: GZ 986Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI