Does the Theory of Uncovered Interest Parity Hold for Nigeria?

This study employs the conventional Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) equation to test the validity of the theory for Nigeria vis-à-vis the United States of America. The study also examine the causality relationship existing between the variables in the UIP model.  The results reveal the invalidity of the UIP theory for Nigerian Naira/ United States dollar exchange rates. We hereby conclude that the existence of abnormal profits from interest arbitrage means that the Uncovered Interest Parity between Nigeria and the U.S.A did not hold in reality at some points in time within the period under review. However, the reasons for the failure of UIP theory for Nigeria might be that the capital mobility between the countries is not perfect, or the risk premium in Nigeria is high as perceived by the potential investors. Country risk, which includes political risk and economic risk remain higher for developing countries including Nigeria, than for the developed countries. JEL Classification:  E4, E42, E43, F3, F31 Key Words: Uncovered Interest Parity, international finance, foreign exchange market, Interest rate Differentia

Foreign Private Investment, Capital Formation and Economic Growth in Nigeria: a two stage least square approach

Given the likely simultaneity between FPI, Capital Formation and Growth, this work studies the relationship between foreign private investment, capital formation and economic growth in Nigeria using the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method of estimation. The study finds that the long run impact of capital formation and foreign private investment on economic growth is larger than their short-run impact. There is thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables as the error correction term is significant, but the speed of adjustment is small in both models. The two stage least squares estimates are very close to the OLS estimates suggesting that OLS estimates are consistent and unbiased. Hence, endogeneity was not a problem in the estimated models. There is therefore no simultaneity between GDP growth and capital formation model. These findings therefore have some policy implications as discussed in the work

Non-Oil Export and Exchange Rate Nexus in Nigeria: Another Empirical Verification

This study examined the nexus between Exchange Rate and Non-Oil Export in Nigeria using time series data from 1985 to 2018. Secondary data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and World Bank Development Indicators (WDI). The study adopted Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and it was fitted with Seven variables; namely, Non-oil Export (NOE), Exchange Rate (EXR), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), Trade Openness (OPN), Inflation (INF), Interest Rate (INT) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The results showed that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on non-oil export in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommended that the Government should encourage international trade to boost non-oil export and increase foreign exchange earnings. Also, there is a need for the government to improve the financial institutions to make investment funds available. Lastly, there is a need to revisit the export-oriented policy to ensure that the non-oil sector is well catered for

Determinants of Stock Price Movements in Nigeria: Evidence from Monetary Variables

Most studies conducted on the determinants of stock price movements in Nigeria have been done on theoretical basis with no quantitative empirical evidence to support their postulations. Consequently, this study examined the macroeconomic determinants of stock price movements in Nigeria using detailed econometric framework in order to provide the foundation for evidence-based policies. Both the long-run and short run dynamic relationships between the stock price movement and the macroeconomic variables were analyzed with time series data that spanned from 1985 to 2010 using the Engle-Granger two-step cointegration test. We established that there is no cointegration between the variables, indicating the absence of long run relationship. Results of the regression indicate that the monetary policy variables (real exchange rate, real interest rate and money supply) as well as political instability are not the determinants of stock price movements in Nigeria; however, inflation was found to be a major determinant of stock price movements. The study recommends that the monetary authorities (that is the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN) and policy makers should pay attention to changes in money supply and inflation in view of their sensitivity to stock price movements in Nigeria. Key words: Stock Price Movement; Monetary Policy Variables; Cointegration; Inflation, CBN; Nigeri

Agricultural financing and agricultural output growth in developing economies : any causal linkage in Nigeria?

Purpose: In many developing countries, the agricultural sector has been seen as a major sector that should drive economic development and industrialization because of its importance in the provision of food for the increasing population, the supply of raw material to the growing industrial sector, generation of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities, and provision of market for the product of the industrial sector. This study therefore investigates the causal linkage between agricultural financing and agricultural output growth in Nigeria. Design/Methodology/Approach: The data were mainly sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and World Bank Economic Indicators and the study adopted the Pairwise Granger Causality test. Findings: The result showed that there was no causal linkage between agricultural financing and agricultural output growth within the period under review. Practical Implications: With these findings it is therefore imperative for Nigeria to take more careful look into why agricultural financing has not made significant impact on agricultural output growth. There should exist massive education and enlightenment of farmers to know the different sources of agricultural financing available. When such funds are accessed, it should be properly monitored to ensure efficient utilization in order to increase agricultural output. Originality/Value: The study adds to literature on agricultural financing in Nigeria and it has serious implications for agricultural output growth and other areas of the economy. The findings of this study is novel and it is a pointer to the government to more proactive in ensuring that the agricultural sector is well financed and monitored in order to increase agricultural productivity.peer-reviewe

Емпіричний аналіз впливу збільшення населення на економічне зростання найбільш густонаселеної країни Африки

The concern about population growth in many developing countries has become a burning issue in the literature. Furthermore, many divergent views exist on whether increasing population is useful or harmful to growth in the economy. This study therefore, analysed the impact of population increase on economic growth in Nigeria, as an Africa’s most populous country. The study employed time series data from 1985–2018 using the framework of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. The findings of this study revealed that the population growth of the economy supports economic growth both in the short and long term. However, it may become explosive in the long run if vital measures are not taken to control it. Since population increase has a huge impact on economic growth, the government should take steps to ensure that the population continues to increase the country’s growth trajectory by equipping the workforce with the appropriate skills. Therefore, to enhance sustainable development, the study proposes to formulate an effective government policy in order to ensure the growing labour force with jobs and modern qualification skills in accordance with the requirements of the labor market and increasing the country’s GDP. Also, there is need to formulate effective financial policies and support competitive interest rates in order to improve the economy’s savings rate. Effective monitoring of the economy’s capital-output ratio should ensure its increase in GDP, and the prohibition of effective state policy should be enacted to maintain stable and non-escalating population growth rate.Занепокоєння зростанням населення в багатьох країнах, що розвиваються, стало актуальним питанням у літературі. Крім того, існує багато різних поглядів на те, корисне чи шкідливе збільшення чисельності населення для зростання економіки. Зважаючи на це, у статті проаналізовано вплив збільшення населення на економічне зростання в Нігерії, як найбільш густонаселеній країні Африки. У дослідженні використано дані часових рядів за період 1985–2018 рр. та модель авторегресії і розподіленого лага (ARDL). Результати дослідження показали, що зростання чисельності населення в економіці сприяє економічному зростанню, як у короткостроковій, так і в довгостроковій перспективі. Однак у довгостроковій перспективі воно може стати вибухонебезпечним, якщо не вжити життєво важливих заходів для його контролю. З огляду на те, що збільшення чисельності населення має величезний вплив на економічне зростання, уряду варто вживати заходів задля забезпечення того, щоб населення продовжувало збільшувати траєкторію зростання країни, оснащуючи робочу силу відповідними навичками. Отже, для посилення сталого розвитку в дослідженні пропонується сформулювати ефективну державну політику з метою забезпечення зростаючої робочої сили робочими місцями та сучасними кваліфікаційними навичками відповідно до вимог ринку праці і збільшення ВВП країни. Крім того, існує необхідність у формуванні ефективної фінансової політики та підтримці конкурентних процентних ставок з метою підвищення рівня заощаджень в економіці. Ефективний моніторинг співвідношення капіталу та зростання в економіці має забезпечити його збільшення у ВВП, а запровадження ефективної державної політики дозволить підтримувати стабільні та не ескалаційні темпи приросту населення

Mergers and Acquisitions: The Nigerian Banking Consolidation Program

This paper examines the determinants of the exit behaviour of banks in the Nigerian consolidation program during July 2004 and December 2005. We conceptualise the exit process in a flexible bivariate competing risks model to examine the importance of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors for both merged banks and failed banks jointly. The preliminary results suggest that bank-specific characteristics mattered more for preventing bank failure than they did for emergence of the M&A banks. Second, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s assistance was highly influential in preventing bank failure, and, for banks that benefited, the assistance increased their probability of being merged or acquired. Also, we found no strong evidence suggesting that the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and industry-specific factors had influenced exit behaviour of banks during the consolidation exercise. We found evidence of structural dependence between failure and merger and acquisition hazards induced by CBN incentive

Baseline Prevalence of Trachoma in 21 Local Government Areas of Adamawa State, North East Nigeria.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence of trachoma in each of the 21 local government areas (LGAs) of Adamawa State, Nigeria. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in each of the 21 LGAs of Adamawa State between 2017 and 2019. With the support of Tropical Data (TD), surveys were planned and implemented in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. A two-stage cluster sampling technique was used in each LGA, 25 or 30 clusters were selected with a probability of selection proportionate to cluster size, and in each of these clusters, 25 or 30 households were enrolled for the survey. All residents aged 1 year and older within selected households were examined by TD-certified graders for trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Additionally, data were collected on household water and sanitation access. RESULTS: All 21 LGAs had TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds below 5%. The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in people aged ≥15 years was ≥0.2% in three of the 21 LGAs. Access to improved water and sanitation facilities was <80% in the majority of the surveyed LGAs. Only 12 of the 21 LGAs had ≥50% household-level improved latrine access, and only Yola North had ≥80% household-level improved latrine access. CONCLUSION: There is no need for mass treatment with antibiotics for trachoma elimination purposes in any of these LGAs. There is a need for active TT case finding and provision of community-based TT surgical services in three LGAs. Furthermore, engagement with water and sanitation agencies is needed to augment access to improved water and sanitation facilities across the State; this will help to avoid the recrudescence of active trachoma in the State

Baseline Prevalence of Trachoma in 13 Local Government Areas of Borno State, Nigeria

PURPOSE: We set out to determine the baseline prevalence of trachoma in 13 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Borno State, Nigeria. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in each of 13 LGAs from 2017 to 2019, with the support of Tropical Data (TD). World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended protocols were used. With a probability-proportional-to-size systematic sampling method, 25 villages were selected per LGA in 2017 and 30 villages per LGA in 2019; in each village, 25 households were enrolled for 2017 surveys, while 30 were enrolled for 2019 surveys. All present, consenting residents aged ≥1 year were examined by TD-certified graders for trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Additionally, we collected data on household-level access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities. RESULTS: One LGA (Magumeri) had TF prevalence in 1–9-year-olds ≥10%; two other LGAs (Monguno and Kaga) had TF prevalence between 5.0% and 9.9%. The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system was ≥0.2% in six LGAs. The proportion of households with access to improved water sources ranged from 30% (Kwaya Kusar) to 95% (Monguno); household-level access to improved latrines was lowest in Shani (7%) and highest in Maiduguri (95%). CONCLUSION: Active TT case finding and strengthening of TT surgical services are needed in six LGAs. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antibiotics is needed in three LGAs to reduce the prevalence of active trachoma to below elimination thresholds. The trachoma elimination programme should engage WASH agencies to augment access to improved WASH facilities

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens