Horseshoe-based Bayesian nonparametric estimation of effective population size trajectories

Phylodynamics is an area of population genetics that uses genetic sequence data to estimate past population dynamics. Modern state-of-the-art Bayesian nonparametric methods for recovering population size trajectories of unknown form use either change-point models or Gaussian process priors. Change-point models suffer from computational issues when the number of change-points is unknown and needs to be estimated. Gaussian process-based methods lack local adaptivity and cannot accurately recover trajectories that exhibit features such as abrupt changes in trend or varying levels of smoothness. We propose a novel, locally-adaptive approach to Bayesian nonparametric phylodynamic inference that has the flexibility to accommodate a large class of functional behaviors. Local adaptivity results from modeling the log-transformed effective population size a priori as a horseshoe Markov random field, a recently proposed statistical model that blends together the best properties of the change-point and Gaussian process modeling paradigms. We use simulated data to assess model performance, and find that our proposed method results in reduced bias and increased precision when compared to contemporary methods. We also use our models to reconstruct past changes in genetic diversity of human hepatitis C virus in Egypt and to estimate population size changes of ancient and modern steppe bison. These analyses show that our new method captures features of the population size trajectories that were missed by the state-of-the-art methods.Comment: 36 pages, including supplementary informatio

Arable crop disease control, climate change and food security

Copyright Association of Applied BiologistsGlobal food security is threatened by crop diseases that account for average yield losses of 16%. Climate change is exacerbating threats to food security in much of the world, emphasising the need to increase food production in northern European countries such as the UK. However, to mitigate climate change, crops must be grown so as to minimise greenhouse gas emissions (GHG); results with UK oilseed rape demonstrate how disease control in arable crops can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, work examining impacts of climate change on UK epidemics of winter oilseed rape diseases illustrates unexpected, contrasting impacts of climate change on complex plant-disease interactions. In England, phoma stem canker is expected to become more severe whilst light leaf spot is expected to become less severe. Such work can provide guidance for government and industry planning for adaptation to impacts of climate change on crops to ensure future food securityFinal Accepted Versio

The origin of aubrites: Evidence from lithophile trace element abundances and oxygen isotope compositions

We report the abundances of a selected set of “lithophile” trace elements (including lanthanides, actinides and high field strength elements) and high-precision oxygen isotope analyses of a comprehensive suite of aubrites. Two distinct groups of aubrites can be distinguished: (a) the main-group aubrites display flat or light-REE depleted REE patterns with variable Eu and Y anomalies; their pyroxenes are light-REE depleted and show marked negative Eu anomalies; (b) the Mount Egerton enstatites and the silicate fraction from Larned display distinctive light-REE enrichments, and high Th/Sm ratios; Mount Egerton pyroxenes have much less pronounced negative Eu anomalies than pyroxenes from the main-group aubrites. Leaching experiments were undertaken to investigate the contribution of sulfides to the whole rock budget of the main-group aubrites. Sulfides contain in most cases at least 50% of the REEs and of the actinides. Among the elements we have analyzed, those displaying the strongest lithophile behaviors are Rb, Ba, Sr and Sc. The homogeneity of the Δ17O values obtained for main-group aubrite falls [Δ17O = +0.009 ± 0.010‰ (2σ)] suggests that they originated from a single parent body whose differentiation involved an early phase of large-scale melting that may have led to the development of a magma ocean. This interpretation is at first glance in agreement with the limited variability of the shapes of the REE patterns of these aubrites. However, the trace element concentrations of their phases cannot be used to discuss this hypothesis, because their igneous trace-element signatures have been modified by subsolidus exchange. Finally, despite similar O isotopic compositions, the marked light-REE enrichments displayed by Mount Egerton and Larned suggest that they are unrelated to the main-group aubrites and probably originated from a distinct parent body

A Low-Fat Vegan Diet Elicits Greater Macronutrient Changes, but Is Comparable in Adherence and Acceptability, Compared with a More Conventional Diabetes Diet among Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes

Although therapeutic diets are critical to diabetes management, their acceptability to patients is largely unstudied

D2 dopamine receptor Taq1A polymorphism, body weight, and dietary intake in type 2 diabetes

Certain D2 dopamine receptor Taq 1A genotypes (A1A1, A1A2) have been associated with obesity and substance abuse. We hypothesized that their presence would be associated with reduced efficacy of dietary interventions in individuals with type 2 diabetes

Measurement of the Charged Multiplicities in b, c and Light Quark Events from Z0 Decays

Average charged multiplicities have been measured separately in $b$, $c$ and light quark ($u,d,s$) events from $Z^0$ decays measured in the SLD experiment. Impact parameters of charged tracks were used to select enriched samples of $b$ and light quark events, and reconstructed charmed mesons were used to select $c$ quark events. We measured the charged multiplicities: $\bar{n}_{uds} = 20.21 \pm 0.10 (\rm{stat.})\pm 0.22(\rm{syst.})$, $\bar{n}_{c} = 21.28 \pm 0.46(\rm{stat.}) ^{+0.41}_{-0.36}(\rm{syst.})$ $\bar{n}_{b} = 23.14 \pm 0.10(\rm{stat.}) ^{+0.38}_{-0.37}(\rm{syst.})$, from which we derived the differences between the total average charged multiplicities of $c$ or $b$ quark events and light quark events: $\Delta \bar{n}_c = 1.07 \pm 0.47(\rm{stat.})^{+0.36}_{-0.30}(\rm{syst.})$ and $\Delta \bar{n}_b = 2.93 \pm 0.14(\rm{stat.})^{+0.30}_{-0.29}(\rm{syst.})$. We compared these measurements with those at lower center-of-mass energies and with perturbative QCD predictions. These combined results are in agreement with the QCD expectations and disfavor the hypothesis of flavor-independent fragmentation.Comment: 19 pages LaTex, 4 EPS figures, to appear in Physics Letters

Evidence of Color Coherence Effects in W+jets Events from ppbar Collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV

We report the results of a study of color coherence effects in ppbar collisions based on data collected by the D0 detector during the 1994-1995 run of the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, at a center of mass energy sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV. Initial-to-final state color interference effects are studied by examining particle distribution patterns in events with a W boson and at least one jet. The data are compared to Monte Carlo simulations with different color coherence implementations and to an analytic modified-leading-logarithm perturbative calculation based on the local parton-hadron duality hypothesis.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures. Submitted to Physics Letters

Establishing nurse-led active surveillance for men with localised prostate cancer: development and formative evaluation of a model of care in the ProtecT trial.

Objectives To develop a nurse-led, urologist-supported model of care for men managed by active surveillance or active monitoring (AS/AM) for localised prostate cancer and provide a formative evaluation of its acceptability to patients, clinicians and nurses. Nurse-led care, comprising an explicit nurse-led protocol with support from urologists, was developed as part of the AM arm of the Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial. Design Interviews and questionnaire surveys of clinicians, nurses and patients assessed acceptability. Setting Nurse-led clinics were established in 9 centres in the ProtecT trial and compared with 3 non-ProtecT urology centres elsewhere in UK. Participants Within ProtecT, 22 men receiving AM nurse-led care were interviewed about experiences of care; 11 urologists and 23 research nurses delivering ProtecT trial care completed a questionnaire about its acceptability; 20 men managed in urology clinics elsewhere in the UK were interviewed about models of AS/AM care; 12 urologists and three specialist nurses working in these clinics were also interviewed about management of AS/AM. Results Nurse-led care was commended by ProtecT trial participants, who valued the flexibility, accessibility and continuity of the service and felt confident about the quality of care. ProtecT consultant urologists and nurses also rated it highly, identifying continuity of care and resource savings as key attributes. Clinicians and patients outside the ProtecT trial believed that nurse-led care could relieve pressure on urology clinics without compromising patient care. Conclusions The ProtecT AM nurse-led model of care was acceptable to men with localised prostate cancer and clinical specialists in urology. The protocol is available for implementation; we aim to evaluate its impact on routine clinical practice

Time-integrated luminosity recorded by the BABAR detector at the PEP-II e+e- collider

This article is the Preprint version of the final published artcile which can be accessed at the link below.We describe a measurement of the time-integrated luminosity of the data collected by the BABAR experiment at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e+e- collider at the ϒ(4S), ϒ(3S), and ϒ(2S) resonances and in a continuum region below each resonance. We measure the time-integrated luminosity by counting e+e-→e+e- and (for the ϒ(4S) only) e+e-→μ+μ- candidate events, allowing additional photons in the final state. We use data-corrected simulation to determine the cross-sections and reconstruction efficiencies for these processes, as well as the major backgrounds. Due to the large cross-sections of e+e-→e+e- and e+e-→μ+μ-, the statistical uncertainties of the measurement are substantially smaller than the systematic uncertainties. The dominant systematic uncertainties are due to observed differences between data and simulation, as well as uncertainties on the cross-sections. For data collected on the ϒ(3S) and ϒ(2S) resonances, an additional uncertainty arises due to ϒ→e+e-X background. For data collected off the ϒ resonances, we estimate an additional uncertainty due to time dependent efficiency variations, which can affect the short off-resonance runs. The relative uncertainties on the luminosities of the on-resonance (off-resonance) samples are 0.43% (0.43%) for the ϒ(4S), 0.58% (0.72%) for the ϒ(3S), and 0.68% (0.88%) for the ϒ(2S).This work is supported by the US Department of Energy and National Science Foundation, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Canada), the Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique and Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physiquedes Particules (France), the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Germany), the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (Italy), the Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter (The Netherlands), the Research Council of Norway, the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain), and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Marie-Curie IEF program (European Union) and the A.P. Sloan Foundation (USA)

Measurement of the partial widths of the Z into up- and down-type quarks

Using the entire OPAL LEP1 on-peak Z hadronic decay sample, Z -> qbarq gamma decays were selected by tagging hadronic final states with isolated photon candidates in the electromagnetic calorimeter. Combining the measured rates of Z -> qbarq gamma decays with the total rate of hadronic Z decays permits the simultaneous determination of the widths of the Z into up- and down-type quarks. The values obtained, with total errors, were Gamma u = 300 ^{+19}_{-18} MeV and Gamma d = 381 ^{+12}_{-12} MeV. The results are in good agreement with the Standard Model expectation.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, Submitted to Phys. Letts.