Lake Whatcom Monitoring Project 2018/2019 Report

This report describes the results from the 2018/2019 Lake Whatcom monitoring program conducted by the Institute for Watershed Studies at Western Washington University (www.wwu.edu/iws). The major objectives in 2018/2019 were to continue long-term baseline water quality monitoring in Lake Whatcom and its major tributaries; collect storm runoff water quality data from representative streams in the watershed; and continue collection of hydrologic data from Austin and Smith Creeks

The turbulent structure and diurnal growth of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer

The turbulent structure and growth of the remote Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is described with in situ radiosonde and aircraft measurements and a large-eddy simulation model. A month of radiosonde data from June 2011 provides a mean profile of the midday Saharan ABL, which is characterized by a well-mixed convective boundary layer, capped by a small temperature inversion (<1K) and a deep, near-neutral residual layer. The boundary layer depth varies by up to 100% over horizontal distances of a few kilometers due to turbulent processes alone. The distinctive vertical structure also leads to unique boundary layer processes, such as detrainment of the warmest plumes across the weak temperature inversion, which slows down the warming and growth of the convective boundary layer. As the boundary layer grows, overshooting plumes can also entrain freetropospheric air into the residual layer, forming a second entrainment zone that acts to maintain the inversion above the convective boundary layer, thus slowing down boundary layer growth further.Asingle-column model is unable to accurately reproduce the evolution of the Saharan boundary layer, highlighting the difficulty of representing such processes in large-scale models. These boundary layer processes are special to the Sahara, and possibly hot, dry, desert environments in general, and have implications for the large-scale structure of the Saharan heat low. The growth of the boundary layer influences the vertical redistribution of moisture and dust, and the spatial coverage and duration of clouds, with large-scale dynamical and radiative implications

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades.The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions.We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization.Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity.Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems

Numerical model simulation of the Saharan dust event of 6–11 March 2006 using the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3)

The Sahara desert is the world's primary source of mineral dust aerosols and is known to be an important but poorly understood component of the climate system. Climate models which incorporate dust modules have the potential to improve our understanding of the climate impacts of dust. In this study, the performance of the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) with an active dust scheme is evaluated, using a major dust event of 6-11 March 2006 as a test case. To account for the distribution of preferential dust source regions, soil texture characteristics were modified in dust source regions identified from long-term SEVIRI satellite data. The dust event was associated with a pronounced cold outbreak of midlatitude air over the northern Sahara which produced anomalously strong northerly winds, which propagated from west to east over the Sahara during the study period. This resulted in dust mobilization from multiple dust sources across the domain. RegCM3 represents the space/time structure of near-surface meteorology well, although surface winds are underestimated in absolute terms. The experiment in which soils are modified provides a better representation of local dust sources and emission and resulting atmospheric optical thickness (AOT). In this experiment, model simulated dust flux exported from the Sahara to the Sahel and the tropical east Atlantic is estimated as 1.9 Tg d(-1). The dust event had a profound impact on the surface solar radiation budget of similar to-140 W m(-2) per unit AOT (domain average). The shortwave radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere is similar to-10 W m(-2) per unit AOT over the study domain. However, this is strongly dependent on surface albedo. The results also highlight how errors in model simulated circulation lead to errors in the position of the dust plume

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Supplemental material in the ancillary file