Short-term solar irradiation forecasting based on dynamic harmonic regression

Solar power generation is a crucial research area for countries that have high dependency on fossil energy sources and is gaining prominence with the current shift to renewable sources of energy. In order to integrate the electricity generated by solar energy into the grid, solar irradiation must be reasonably well forecasted, where deviations of the forecasted value from the actual measured value involve significant costs. The present paper proposes a univariate Dynamic Harmonic Regression model set up in a State Space framework for short-term (1 to 24 hours) solar irradiation forecasting. Time series hourly aggregated as the Global Horizontal Irradiation and the Direct Normal Irradiation will be used to illustrate the proposed approach. This method provides a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure based on the frequency domain. Furthermore, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions. The good forecasting performance is illustrated with solar irradiance measurements collected from ground-based weather stations located in Spain. The results show that the Dynamic Harmonic Regression achieves the lowest relative Root Mean Squared Error; about 30% and 47% for the Global and Direct irradiation components, respectively, for a forecast horizon of 24 hours ahead

Soberanía y Globalización

Grado en Filosofía, Política y Economía. Interuniversitario Deusto y Comillas

Soberanía y Globalización

Grado en Filosofía, Política y Economía. Interuniversitario Deusto y Comillas

Strawberry GRN forever: insights into the transcriptional regulatory network controlling strawberry fruit ripening and quality

Ripening is a critical step for the development of flavor quality in fruits. This character has significantly declined in many fleshy fruits over recent decades. This is particularly significant in strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa), where current cultivars are derived from a narrow germplasm collection. Improving fruit quality requires two important breakthroughs: 1) a precise understanding of the fruit ripening process that will allow the targeting of relevant genes, and 2) the identification of novel alleles responsible for fruit quality traits. In our project, we aim at the identification and characterization of key transcription factors (TF) involved in fruit ripening regulation and their target genes, in order to infer the Gene Regulatory Network controlling this process. Among them, we have identified two TFs belonging to the NAC (FaRIF) and the BLH9 (FaRPL) family. Functional analyses establishing stable silencing and overexpression lines support that both TFs play a critical role in the regulation of fruit ripening and development. Furthermore, using a stage- and tissue-specific transcriptome analysis, we have identified TFs specifically expressed in the external layer of ripe receptacles of F. vesca fruits, which are involved in the regulation of wax and cuticle formation. Finally, we have implemented the use of the genome-editing tool CRISPR/Cas9 in the cultivated strawberry, which we expect to open opportunities for engineering this species to improve traits of economic importance

Identification and functional validation of methyl ketone synthase 2 in woodland strawberry

Methyl ketones are compounds with demonstrated insect repellent effects. They are highly abundant in the glandular trichomes of wild tomato (Solanum habrochaites), where their pathway was first described, but not in the cultivated species (S. lycopersicum). Their synthesis derives from fatty acids in a two-step process mediated by a thioesterase (ShMKS2) and a decarboxylase (ShMKS1). Higher diversity and quantity of methyl ketones are present in the volatilome of woodland strawberry ripe fruits than in those of F. × ananassa. The aim of this study is to reveal the genetic basis of methyl ketone production in strawberry fruit. We quantified methyl ketones (2-heptanone, 2-nonanone, 2-undecanone), their secondary alcohols (2-heptanol, 2-nonanol, 2-undecanol) and the methyl esters of their fatty acid precursors (methyl octanoate, methyl decanoate, methyl dodecanoate) by GC-MS in a natural collection of European woodland strawberry, that comprises 199 accessions fully genotyped with >1.8 M SNPs representing the continental diversity. Conducting a Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS), we identified a candidate region linked to methyl ketones accumulation harbouring three homologues of ShMKS2: FvMKS2A, FvMKS2B and FvMKS2C. Interestingly, FvMKS2A, which presented two alleles in the European collection (FvMKS2A-1 and FvMKS2A-2), is the only FvMKS2 paralog expressed in woodland strawberry fruit, being up-regulated during ripening. Functional validation of all candidate genes and alleles by transient over-expression and silencing in both Nicotiana benthamiana leaves and F. vesca fruits has revealed that FvMKS2A and FvMKS2B, but not FvMKS2C, are capable of synthesizing methyl ketones, and point to a single SNP in FvMKS2A as responsible for the enzymatic substrate specificity, supporting FvMKS2A as the main MKS2 paralog responsible for methyl ketones in woodland strawberries.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Diagnostic aids in the screening of oral cancer

The World Health Organization has clearly indentified prevention and early detection as major objectives in the control of the oral cancer burden worldwide. At the present time, screening of oral cancer and its pre-invasive intra-epithelial stages, as well as its early detection, is still largely based on visual examination of the mouth. There is strong available evidence to suggest that visual inspection of the oral mucosa is effective in reducing mortality from oral cancer in individuals exposed to risk factors. Simple visual examination, however, is well known to be limited by subjective interpretation and by the potential, albeit rare, occurrence of dysplasia and early OSCC within areas of normal-looking oral mucosa. As a consequence, adjunctive techniques have been suggested to increase our ability to differentiate between benign abnormalities and dysplastic/malignant changes as well as to identify areas of dysplasia/early OSCC that are not visible to naked eye. These include the use of toluidine blue, brush biopsy, chemiluminescence and tissue autofluorescence. The present paper reviews the evidence supporting the efficacy of the aforementioned techniques in improving the identification of dysplastic/malignant changes of the oral mucosa. We conclude that available studies have shown promising results, but strong evidence to support the use of oral cancer diagnostic aids is still lacking. Further research with clear objectives, well-defined population cohorts, and sound methodology is strongly required

Dressings for the prevention of surgical site infection (Review)

Background Surgical wounds (incisions) heal by primary intention when the wound edges are brought together and secured, often with sutures, staples, or clips. Wound dressings applied after wound closure may provide physical support, protection and absorb exudate. There are many different types of wound dressings available and wounds can also be left uncovered (exposed). Surgical site infection (SSI) is a common complication of wounds and this may be associated with using (or not using) dressings, or different types of dressing. Objectives To assess the effects of wound dressings compared with no wound dressings, and the effects of alternative wound dressings, in preventing SSIs in surgical wounds healing by primary intention. Search methods We searched the following databases: the Cochrane Wounds Specialised Register (searched 19 September 2016); the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; the Cochrane Library 2016, Issue 8); Ovid MEDLINE (including In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, MEDLINE Daily and Epub Ahead of Print; 1946 to 19 September 2016); Ovid Embase (1974 to 19 September 2016); EBSCO CINAHL Plus (1937 to 19 September 2016). There were no restrictions based on language, date of publication or study setting. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing wound dressings with wound exposure (no dressing) or alternative wound dressings for the postoperative management of surgical wounds healing by primary intention. Data collection and analysis Two review authors performed study selection, 'Risk of bias' assessment and data extraction independently. Main results We included 29 trials (5718 participants). All studies except one were at an unclear or high risk of bias. Studies were small, reported low numbers of SSI events and were often not clearly reported. There were 16 trials that included people with wounds resulting from surgical procedures with a 'clean' classification, five trials that included people undergoing what was considered 'clean/contaminated' surgery, with the remaining studies including people undergoing a variety of surgical procedures with different contamination classifications. Four trials compared wound dressings with no wound dressing (wound exposure); the remaining 25 studies compared alternative dressing types, with the majority comparing a basic wound contact dressing with film dressings, silver dressings or hydrocolloid dressings. The review contains 11 comparisons in total. Primary outcome: SSI It is uncertain whether wound exposure or any dressing reduces or increases the risk of SSI compared with alternative options investigated: we assessed the certainty of evidence as very low for most comparisons (and low for others), with downgrading (according to GRADE criteria) largely due to risk of bias and imprecision. We summarise the results of comparisons with meta-analysed data below: - film dressings compared with basic wound contact dressings following clean surgery (RR 1.34, 95% CI 0.70 to 2.55), very low certainty evidence downgraded once for risk of bias and twice for imprecision. - hydrocolloid dressings compared with basic wound contact dressings following clean surgery (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.30 to 2.78), very low certainty evidence downgraded once for risk of bias and twice for imprecision. - hydrocolloid dressings compared with basic wound contact dressings following potentially contaminated surgery (RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.51), very low certainty evidence downgraded twice for risk of bias and twice for imprecision. - silver-containing dressings compared with basic wound contact dressings following clean surgery (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.47 to 2.62), very low certainty evidence downgraded once for risk of bias and twice for imprecision. - silver-containing dressings compared with basic wound contact dressings following potentially contaminated surgery (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.37), very low certainty evidence downgraded twice for risk of bias and twice for imprecision. Secondary outcomes There was limited and low or very low certainty evidence on secondary outcomes such as scarring, acceptability of dressing and ease of removal, and uncertainty whether wound dressings influenced these outcomes. Authors' conclusions It is uncertain whether covering surgical wounds healing by primary intention with wound dressings reduces the risk of SSI, or whether any particular wound dressing is more effective than others in reducing the risk of SSI, improving scarring, reducing pain, improving acceptability to patients, or is easier to remove. Most studies in this review were small and at a high or unclear risk of bias. Based on the current evidence, decision makers may wish to base decisions about how to dress a wound following surgery on dressing costs as well as patient preference

Relation of IL28B Gene Polymorphism with Biochemical and Histological Features in Hepatitis C Virus-Induced Liver Disease

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Polymorphism at the IL28B gene may modify the course of hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection. Our aim was to study the influence of IL28B rs12979860 gene polymorphism on the biochemistry and pathology of HCV-induced disease in the clinical course from mild chronic hepatitis C to hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS: We have determined the rs12979860 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) upstream IL28B gene in two groups of patients with HCV-induced chronic liver disease: 1) 268 patients (159 men) with biopsy-proven chronic hepatitis C, to analyse its relation with biochemical, virological and histological features; and 2) 134 patients (97 men) with HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma. The distribution of the analysed SNP in hepatocellular carcinoma patients was compared with that found in untreated chronic hepatitis C patients. All patients were white and most were Spaniards. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis ALT values were higher (P = 0.001) and GGT values were lower (P<0.001) in chronic hepatitis C patients homozygotes for the major rs12979860C allele as compared with carriers of the mutated rs12979860T allele. Steatosis was more frequent (Odds ratio = 1.764, 95% C.I. 1.053-2.955) and severe (P = 0.026) in carriers of the rs12979860T allele. No relation was found between the analysed SNP and METAVIR scores for necroinflammation and fibrosis, and there were no differences in the distribution of the analysed SNP between hepatocellular carcinoma and untreated chronic hepatitis C patients. CONCLUSION: The IL28B rs12979860 polymorphism correlates with the biochemical activity and the presence and severity of liver steatosis in chronic hepatitis C

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Microbial fuel cells: From fundamentals to applications. A review

© 2017 The Author(s) In the past 10–15 years, the microbial fuel cell (MFC) technology has captured the attention of the scientific community for the possibility of transforming organic waste directly into electricity through microbially catalyzed anodic, and microbial/enzymatic/abiotic cathodic electrochemical reactions. In this review, several aspects of the technology are considered. Firstly, a brief history of abiotic to biological fuel cells and subsequently, microbial fuel cells is presented. Secondly, the development of the concept of microbial fuel cell into a wider range of derivative technologies, called bioelectrochemical systems, is described introducing briefly microbial electrolysis cells, microbial desalination cells and microbial electrosynthesis cells. The focus is then shifted to electroactive biofilms and electron transfer mechanisms involved with solid electrodes. Carbonaceous and metallic anode materials are then introduced, followed by an explanation of the electro catalysis of the oxygen reduction reaction and its behavior in neutral media, from recent studies. Cathode catalysts based on carbonaceous, platinum-group metal and platinum-group-metal-free materials are presented, along with membrane materials with a view to future directions. Finally, microbial fuel cell practical implementation, through the utilization of energy output for practical applications, is described