Learning Opinion Dynamics From Social Traces

Opinion dynamics - the research field dealing with how people's opinions form and evolve in a social context - traditionally uses agent-based models to validate the implications of sociological theories. These models encode the causal mechanism that drives the opinion formation process, and have the advantage of being easy to interpret. However, as they do not exploit the availability of data, their predictive power is limited. Moreover, parameter calibration and model selection are manual and difficult tasks. In this work we propose an inference mechanism for fitting a generative, agent-like model of opinion dynamics to real-world social traces. Given a set of observables (e.g., actions and interactions between agents), our model can recover the most-likely latent opinion trajectories that are compatible with the assumptions about the process dynamics. This type of model retains the benefits of agent-based ones (i.e., causal interpretation), while adding the ability to perform model selection and hypothesis testing on real data. We showcase our proposal by translating a classical agent-based model of opinion dynamics into its generative counterpart. We then design an inference algorithm based on online expectation maximization to learn the latent parameters of the model. Such algorithm can recover the latent opinion trajectories from traces generated by the classical agent-based model. In addition, it can identify the most likely set of macro parameters used to generate a data trace, thus allowing testing of sociological hypotheses. Finally, we apply our model to real-world data from Reddit to explore the long-standing question about the impact of backfire effect. Our results suggest a low prominence of the effect in Reddit's political conversation.Comment: Published at KDD202

Atrial fibrillation pattern, left atrial diameter and risk of cardiovascular events and mortality. A prospective multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND There are conflicting evidence on the association between atrial fibrillation (AF) pattern, such as persistent/permanent (Pers/Perm) and paroxysmal (PAF) AF and risk of ischemic events. We investigated if left atrial diameter (LAd) may affect the risk of cardiovascular outcomes according to AF pattern. METHODS Prospective multicenter observational including 1,252 non-valvular AF patients (533 PAF and 719 Pers/Perm AF). Study endpoints were cardiovascular events (CVEs), major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and CV death. LA anteroposterior diameter (LAd) was obtained by transthoracic echocardiography. RESULTS Pers/Perm AF patients had a higher proportion of LAd above median than PAF (≥44 mm, 59.5% vs 37.5% respectively, P < .001). In a mean follow-up of 42.2 ± 31.0 months (4,315 patients/year) 179 CVEs (incidence rate [IR] 4.2%/year), 133 MACE (IR 3.1%/year), and 97 CV deaths (IR 2.2%/year) occurred. Compared to patients with LAd below median, those with LAd above the median had a higher rate of CVEs (log-rank test, P < .001), MACE (log-rank test P < .001), and CV death (log-rank test P < .001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that LAd above the median was associated with CVEs, (HR 1.569, 95% CI 1.129-2.180, P = .007) MACE (HR 1.858, 95% CI 1.257-2.745, P = .002) and CV death (HR 2.106, 95% CI 1.308-3.390, P = .002). The association between LAd and outcomes was evident both in PAF and Pers/Perm AF patients. No association between AF pattern and outcomes was found. CONCLUSION LAd is a simple parameter that can be obtained in virtually all AF patients and can provide prognostic information on the risk of CVEs, MACE and CV death regardless of AF pattern

Studying Fake News via Network Analysis: Detection and Mitigation

Social media for news consumption is becoming increasingly popular due to its easy access, fast dissemination, and low cost. However, social media also enable the wide propagation of "fake news", i.e., news with intentionally false information. Fake news on social media poses significant negative societal effects, and also presents unique challenges. To tackle the challenges, many existing works exploit various features, from a network perspective, to detect and mitigate fake news. In essence, news dissemination ecosystem involves three dimensions on social media, i.e., a content dimension, a social dimension, and a temporal dimension. In this chapter, we will review network properties for studying fake news, introduce popular network types and how these networks can be used to detect and mitigation fake news on social media.Comment: Submitted as a invited book chapter in Lecture Notes in Social Networks, Springer Pres

Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents

Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how the interplay between homophily and social influence controls the emergence of both kinds of segregation in a simple model of mobile agents, endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines to the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions can coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world

Trust and distrust in contradictory information transmission

We analyse the problem of contradictory information distribution in networks of agents with positive and negative trust. The networks of interest are built by ranked agents with different epistemic attitudes. In this context, positive trust is a property of the communication between agents required when message passing is executed bottom-up in the hierarchy, or as a result of a sceptic agent checking information. These two situations are associated with a confirmation procedure that has an epistemic cost. Negative trust results from refusing verification, either of contradictory information or because of a lazy attitude. We offer first a natural deduction system called SecureNDsim to model these interactions and consider some meta-theoretical properties of its derivations. We then implement it in a NetLogo simulation to test experimentally its formal properties. Our analysis concerns in particular: conditions for consensus-reaching transmissions; epistemic costs induced by confirmation and rejection operations; the influence of ranking of the initially labelled nodes on consensus and costs; complexity results

Self-amplified spontaneous emission for a single pass free-electron laser

SPARC (acronym of "Sorgente Pulsata ed Amplificata di Radiazione Coerente", i.e. Pulsed and Amplified Source of Coherent Radiation) is a single pass free-electron laser designed to obtain high gain amplification at a radiation wavelength of 500 nm. Self-amplified spontaneous emission has been observed driving the amplifier with the high-brightness beam of the SPARC linac. We report measurements of energy, spectra, and exponential gain. Experimental results are compared with simulations from several numerical codes

Spreading to localized targets in complex networks.

As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.We thank an anonymous reviewer for helpful suggestions which improve this paper. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos 61603046 and 11547188), Natural Science Foundation of Beijing (No. 16L00077) and the Young Scholar Program of Beijing Normal University (No. 2014NT38)

Debunking in a world of tribes

Social media aggregate people around common interests eliciting collective framing of narratives and worldviews. However, in such a disintermediated environment misinformation is pervasive and attempts to debunk are often undertaken to contrast this trend. In this work, we examine the effectiveness of debunking on Facebook through a quantitative analysis of 54 million users over a time span of five years (Jan 2010, Dec 2014). In particular, we compare how users usually consuming proven (scientific) and unsubstantiated (conspiracy-like) information on Facebook US interact with specific debunking posts. Our findings confirm the existence of echo chambers where users interact primarily with either conspiracy-like or scientific pages. However, both groups interact similarly with the information within their echo chamber. Then, we measure how users from both echo chambers interacted with 50,220 debunking posts accounting for both users consumption patterns and the sentiment expressed in their comments. Sentiment analysis reveals a dominant negativity in the comments to debunking posts. Furthermore, such posts remain mainly confined to the scientific echo chamber. Only few conspiracy users engage with corrections and their liking and commenting rates on conspiracy posts increases after the interaction

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London