The Cestode Community in Northern Fur Seals (\u3cem\u3eCallorhinus ursinus\u3c/em\u3e) on St. Paul Island, Alaska

The diversity and ecology of cestodes from the northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (NFS), were examined using newly collected material from 756 humanely harvested subadult males between 2011 and 2014. NFSs were collected from five different haul-outs on St. Paul Island, Alaska. A total of 14,660 tapeworms were collected with a prevalence of 98.5% and intensity up to 107 cestodes per host (mean intensity 19.7 ± 16.5 SD). Three species of tapeworms were found: Adenocephalus pacificus (Diphyllobothriidea) was the most prevalent (prevalence 97.4%), followed by Diplogonoporus tetrapterus (49.7%), and 5 immature specimens of Anophryocephalus cf. ochotensis (Tetrabothriidea) (0.5%). Most of the cestodes found in the NFS were immature (69.7%). However, only 0.9% of cestodes were in larval (plerocercoid) stages. The species composition, prevalence and intensity of cestodes from these NFSs were not statistically different between the five separate haul-outs. Significant increases in the intensity of NFS infections were observed during the study period

SvSXP:a <em>Strongylus vulgaris</em> antigen with potential for prepatent diagnosis

BACKGROUND: Strongyle parasites are ubiquitous in grazing horses. Strongylus vulgaris, the most pathogenic of the large strongyles, is known for its extensive migration in the mesenteric arterial system. The lifecycle of S. vulgaris is characterised by a long prepatent period where the migrating larvae are virtually undetectable as there currently is no test available for diagnosing prepatent S. vulgaris infection. Presence of S. vulgaris larvae in the arterial system causes endarteritis and thrombosis with a risk of non-strangulating intestinal infarctions. Emergence of anthelmintic resistance among cyathostomins has led to recommendations of reduced treatment intensity by targeting horses that exceed a predetermined strongyle faecal egg count threshold. One study suggests an apparent increase in prevalence of S. vulgaris on farms where reduced anthelmintic treatment intensity has been implemented. These issues highlight the need for an accurate and reliable assay for diagnosing prepatent S. vulgaris infection. METHODS: Immunoscreening of a larval S. vulgaris cDNA library using hyperimmune serum raised against S. vulgaris excretory/secretory antigens was performed to identify potential diagnostic antigens. Immunoreactive clones were sequenced, one potential antigen was characterised, expressed as a recombinant protein, initially evaluated by western blot (WB) analysis, the diagnostic potential of the IgG subclasses was evaluated by ELISA, and the diagnostic accuracy evaluated using serum from 102 horses with known S. vulgaris infection status. RESULTS: The clone expressing the potential antigen encoded a S. vulgaris SXP/RAL2 homologue. The recombinant protein, rSvSXP, was shown to be a potential diagnostic antigen by WB analysis, and a target of serum IgGa, IgG(T) and total IgG in naturally infected horses, with IgG(T) antibodies being the most reliable indicator of S. vulgaris infection in horses. Evaluation of diagnostic accuracy of the ELISA resulted in a sensitivity of 73.3%, a specificity of 81.0%, a diagnostic odds ratio of 11.69; a positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 3.85 and a negative LR was 0.33. The area under the ROC curve was 0.820. CONCLUSION: IgG(T) antibodies to recombinant SvSXP show potential for use as an antigen for prepatent diagnosis of migrating stages of S. vulgaris with moderate to good diagnostic accuracy

SvSXP: a Strongylus vulgaris antigen with potential for prepatent diagnosis

BACKGROUND: Strongyle parasites are ubiquitous in grazing horses. Strongylus vulgaris, the most pathogenic of the large strongyles, is known for its extensive migration in the mesenteric arterial system. The lifecycle of S. vulgaris is characterised by a long prepatent period where the migrating larvae are virtually undetectable as there currently is no test available for diagnosing prepatent S. vulgaris infection. Presence of S. vulgaris larvae in the arterial system causes endarteritis and thrombosis with a risk of non-strangulating intestinal infarctions. Emergence of anthelmintic resistance among cyathostomins has led to recommendations of reduced treatment intensity by targeting horses that exceed a predetermined strongyle faecal egg count threshold. One study suggests an apparent increase in prevalence of S. vulgaris on farms where reduced anthelmintic treatment intensity has been implemented. These issues highlight the need for an accurate and reliable assay for diagnosing prepatent S. vulgaris infection. METHODS: Immunoscreening of a larval S. vulgaris cDNA library using hyperimmune serum raised against S. vulgaris excretory/secretory antigens was performed to identify potential diagnostic antigens. Immunoreactive clones were sequenced, one potential antigen was characterised, expressed as a recombinant protein, initially evaluated by western blot (WB) analysis, the diagnostic potential of the IgG subclasses was evaluated by ELISA, and the diagnostic accuracy evaluated using serum from 102 horses with known S. vulgaris infection status. RESULTS: The clone expressing the potential antigen encoded a S. vulgaris SXP/RAL2 homologue. The recombinant protein, rSvSXP, was shown to be a potential diagnostic antigen by WB analysis, and a target of serum IgGa, IgG(T) and total IgG in naturally infected horses, with IgG(T) antibodies being the most reliable indicator of S. vulgaris infection in horses. Evaluation of diagnostic accuracy of the ELISA resulted in a sensitivity of 73.3%, a specificity of 81.0%, a diagnostic odds ratio of 11.69; a positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 3.85 and a negative LR was 0.33. The area under the ROC curve was 0.820. CONCLUSION: IgG(T) antibodies to recombinant SvSXP show potential for use as an antigen for prepatent diagnosis of migrating stages of S. vulgaris with moderate to good diagnostic accuracy

Refining trait resilience: identifying engineering, ecological, and adaptive facets from extant measures of resilience

The current paper presents a new measure of trait resilience derived from three common mechanisms identified in ecological theory: Engineering, Ecological and Adaptive (EEA) resilience. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses of five existing resilience scales suggest that the three trait resilience facets emerge, and can be reduced to a 12-item scale. The conceptualization and value of EEA resilience within the wider trait and well-being psychology is illustrated in terms of differing relationships with adaptive expressions of the traits of the five-factor personality model and the contribution to well-being after controlling for personality and coping, or over time. The current findings suggest that EEA resilience is a useful and parsimonious model and measure of trait resilience that can readily be placed within wider trait psychology and that is found to contribute to individual well-bein

Energetic particle influence on the Earth's atmosphere

This manuscript gives an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of the effects of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) onto the whole atmosphere, from the lower thermosphere/mesosphere through the stratosphere and troposphere, to the surface. The paper summarizes the different sources and energies of particles, principally galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs) and energetic electron precipitation (EEP). All the proposed mechanisms by which EPP can affect the atmosphere are discussed, including chemical changes in the upper atmosphere and lower thermosphere, chemistry-dynamics feedbacks, the global electric circuit and cloud formation. The role of energetic particles in Earth’s atmosphere is a multi-disciplinary problem that requires expertise from a range of scientific backgrounds. To assist with this synergy, summary tables are provided, which are intended to evaluate the level of current knowledge of the effects of energetic particles on processes in the entire atmosphere

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an