A Decade of Failure; Missed Opportunities and the Escalating Crisis over Iran\u27s Nuclear Program

For the past decade the United States and its European allies powers have been unable to persuade the Islamic Republic of Iran to halt what appears to be a program to develop either a nuclear-weapons capability or an actual atomic arsenal. There is good reason to want to prevent Iran from acquiring atomic weapons, although it is too late to stop Tehran from acquiring the capability to produce a nuclear weapon should it choose to manufacture one. Tehran‘s desire to develop either a nuclear weapons capability or an actual arsenal is based on a realist assessment of its security environment – it is looking for a way of ensuring the survival and independence of the regime and warding off potential attacks by the United States or other countries. There have been a number of missed opportunities to defuse the nuclear standoff with Iran. The first was in May 2003 when Iran sent the U.S. government via the Swiss a proposal for discussions on a ―grand bargain‖ to restore ties between Tehran and Washington. The Bush administration did not even respond. Britain, France and Germany might have been able to reach an agreement with Iran in 2003-2005, but Washington undermined the Europeans‘ ability to reach a deal with Tehran. Negotiations between Iran and the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany have also been unsuccessful in persuading Tehran to abandon its enrichment program. Coercive diplomacy has not worked. Sanctions have not persuaded Iran to reach an agreement with the West, though they have crippled the Iranian economy and hurt ordinary Iranians. There is no viable military option to resolve the nuclear standoff with Iran. The use of force against Iran‘s nuclear facilities would only make Tehran more determined to develop atomic weapons. While there are Iranian officials who would like a deal, it is not clear that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will ever be willing to reach an agreement with the West. But there is still a remote chance of striking a deal with Tehran provided Western powers are willing to allow Iran a limited enrichment program and offer it the kind of security guarantees it wants. Iran would have to allow limits on its enrichment program and intrusive IAEA inspections before sanctions could begin to be lifted. Containment of a nuclear Iran is feasible and may be the only available option in the future

Evolution of an artificial market and its use to predict future stock prices

We propose a model of a deterministic artificial stock market driven by a chromosome that encodes the different trading rules of its agents as individual genes. We first define a stylized version of a price-adjustment mechanism that is calibrated to real market data to interpret any random chromosome. Once the gene is activated, we use a steady-state genetic algorithm to invert the market, namely to infer which chromosome is activated in order to generate a given financial time-series without any a priori knowledge of its agent structure. This reconstructed active chromosome is then used to generate price forecasts. These forecasts are analyzed and compared to the standard ARIMA time-series forecasting method

Follow-up Observations of the Neptune Mass Transiting Extrasolar Planet HAT-P-11b

We have confirmed the existence of the transiting super Neptune extrasolar planet HAT-P-11b. On May 1, 2009 UT the transit of HAT-P-11b was detected at the University of Arizona's 1.55m Kuiper Telescope with 1.7 millimag rms accuracy. We find a central transit time of T_c = 2454952.92534+/-0.00060 BJD; this transit occurred 80+/-73 seconds sooner than previous measurements (71 orbits in the past) would have predicted. Hence, our transit timing rules out the presence of any large (>200 s) deviations from the ephemeris of Bakos et al. (2009). We obtain a slightly more accurate period of P=4.8878045+/-0.0000043 days. We measure a slightly larger planetary radius of R_p=0.452+/-0.020 R_J (5.07+/-0.22 R_earth) compared to Bakos and co-workers' value of 0.422+/-0.014 R_J (4.73+/-0.16 R_earth). Our values confirm that HAT-P-11b is very similar to GJ 436b (the only other known transiting super Neptune) in radius and other bulk properties.Comment: accepted to ApJ Letters, 11 pages, 2 figures (see Dittmann et al. 2009 ApJ 699 L48-L51

Eliciting Awe in the Spectator: The Case of a Dhrupad-Based Dance Performance

This paper describes “Kalos, eîdos, skopeîn,” an immersive Dhrupad-based dance installation designed to elicit feelings of awe in the spectators, in a real-life artistic context. This study used a mixed-methods approach in order to explore spectators’ awe experience (N=45), using specific scales and interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results suggested that “Kalos, eîdos, skopeîn,” with its combination of nature motifs and the slow dance-walk associated with the Dhrupad music in the choreography, was able to produce awe-related moments in some spectators and inspire a degree of positive emotions. Our qualitative results viewed awe explicitly as a positive emotion and showed that generally the spectator narratives, involving the whole performance, were based on modified states of consciousness. Three themes emerged: the main theme is “A rich experience of modified states of consciousness” involving the whole performance, and two interconnected sub-themes “Captivated by the slowness of the dancers” associated with the slow movement and “I can still hear the mantra in my head” in rapport with Dhrupad music. This study was carried out as part of the Canadian FRQSC/FCI Project (2019-RC2-260306)

Eliciting Awe in the Spectator: The Case of a Dhrupad-Based Dance Performance

This paper describes “Kalos, eîdos, skopeîn,” an immersive Dhrupad-based dance installation designed to elicit feelings of awe in the spectators, in a real-life artistic context. This study used a mixed-methods approach in order to explore spectators’ awe experience (N=45), using specific scales and interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results suggested that “Kalos, eîdos, skopeîn,” with its combination of nature motifs and the slow dance-walk associated with the Dhrupad music in the choreography, was able to produce awe-related moments in some spectators and inspire a degree of positive emotions. Our qualitative results viewed awe explicitly as a positive emotion and showed that generally the spectator narratives, involving the whole performance, were based on modified states of consciousness. Three themes emerged: the main theme is “A rich experience of modified states of consciousness” involving the whole performance, and two interconnected sub-themes “Captivated by the slowness of the dancers” associated with the slow movement and “I can still hear the mantra in my head” in rapport with Dhrupad music. This study was carried out as part of the Canadian FRQSC/FCI Project (2019-RC2-260306)

L’impact de l’isolement social engendré par la covid-19 sur le fonctionnement cognitif et la capacité à réaliser les activités des personnes aînées vivant avec un trouble neurocognitif : résultats d’une étude de portée

La pandémie de la COVID-19 a entraîné la mise en place de plusieurs mesures sociosanitaires. À notre connaissance, aucune recension des écrits ne s’est intéressée aux impacts de ces mesures sur le fonctionnement cognitif et la capacité à réaliser des activités du quotidien, notamment chez les personnes aînées vivant avec un trouble neurocognitif (TNC). Le but de cette étude de portée est donc d’explorer les impacts de l’isolement social prolongé, causé par la COVID-19, sur le fonctionnement cognitif et la capacité à réaliser les activités du quotidien des personnes aînées vivant avec un TNC. L’étude de portée utilisant la méthode de Arksey et O’Malley a été réalisée dans cinq banques de données (MedLine, APA PsycInfo, Cinahl, AgeLine et Abstract in Social Gerontology), à partir de 22 mots clés. Les 31 articles inclus dans cette étude de portée montrent une augmentation du déclin cognitif général (n = 23 ; 74,2 %), de même qu’une diminution de la capacité à réaliser les activités du quotidien (n = 20 ; 64,5 %), principalement au niveau des loisirs (n = 7 ; 22,6 %) et des soins personnels (n = 6 ; 19,3 %). Ces impacts sont dus à une diminution des opportunités de stimulation cognitive consécutive à l’isolement social prolongé et à l’interruption des services de santé et de soutien offerts à cette clientèle. Il importe de développer et de mettre en place des interventions permettant de prévenir les pertes cognitives et la capacité à réaliser les activités du quotidien dans l’éventualité où un isolement social prolongé serait imposé, afin de favoriser le bien-être de cette clientèle. ---- Public health measures were implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. To our knowledge, no literature review has focused on the impacts of these measures on cognitive functioning, nor on the realization of activities in older adults living with a neurocognitive disorder (NCD). Hence, this scoping review explores the impacts of prolonged periods of social isolation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on cognitive functioning in older adults living with a NCD and their ability to carry out daily activities. From 22 keywords, 31 articles were retrieved from five electronic databases. Results: Most of the participants in the included studies were living with a NCD (n = 24; 77.4%). Evidence suggests that a decrease in cognitive stimulation opportunities, an augmentation of periods of social isolation, and an interruption of healthcare services and support generate a general cognitive decline (n = 23; 74.2%), as well as an augmentation of difficulties performing daily activities (n = 20; 64.5%), mainly leisure activities (n = 7; 22.6%) and personal care (n = 6; 19.3%). The results of the present study show the importance of developing and implementing alternatives that will prevent cognitive loss and the realization of activities if another prolonged period of social isolation is imposed

Season of birth and Alzheimer's disease: a population-based study in Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean/Québec (IMAGE Project)

The birth distribution of 399 cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD) identified in the region of Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean (Québec) was compared with that of: (a) the population currently living in the area; and (b) the population born during the same period in the area. AD cases have been recruited since 1986 by the IMAGE Project. Cases and controls were grouped according to the month of birth and according to the day of birth using density estimation. Analyses showed a significant deficit of births in the month of May. We believe these preliminary results deserve further attention and we suggest two possible explanations that could lead to a deficit of AD births at specific periods during the year

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of circulation regimes in optically-thin, dry atmospheres

An extensive analysis of an optically-thin, dry atmosphere at different values of the thermal Rossby number Ro and of the Taylor number Ff is per- formed with a general circulation model by varying the rotation rate {\Omega} and the surface drag {\tau} in a wide parametric range. By using nonequilibrium thermodynamics diagnostics such as material entropy production, efficiency, meridional heat transport and kinetic energy dissipation we characterize in a new way the different circulation regimes. Baroclinic circulations feature high mechanical dissipation, meridional heat transport, material entropy pro- duction and are fairly efficient in converting heat into mechanical work. The thermal dissipation associated with the sensible heat flux is found to depend mainly on the surface properties, almost independent from the rotation rate and very low for quasi-barotropic circulations and regimes approaching equa- torial super-rotation. Slowly rotating, axisymmetric circulations have the highest meridional heat transport. At high rotation rates and intermediate- high drag, atmospheric circulations are zonostrohic with very low mechanical dissipation, meridional heat transport and efficiency. When {\tau} is interpreted as a tunable parameter associated with the turbulent boundary layer trans- fer of momentum and sensible heat, our results confirm the possibility of using the Maximum Entropy Production Principle as a tuning guideline in the range of values of {\Omega}. This study suggests the effectiveness of using fun- damental nonequilibrium thermodynamics for investigating the properties of planetary atmospheres and extends our knowledge of the thermodynamics of the atmospheric circulation regimes

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Expert consensus document: The International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) consensus statement on the definition and scope of prebiotics

In December 2016, a panel of experts in microbiology, nutrition and clinical research was convened by the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics to review the definition and scope of prebiotics. Consistent with the original embodiment of prebiotics, but aware of the latest scientific and clinical developments, the panel updated the definition of a prebiotic: a substrate that is selectively utilized by host microorganisms conferring a health benefit. This definition expands the concept of prebiotics to possibly include non-carbohydrate substances, applications to body sites other than the gastrointestinal tract, and diverse categories other than food. The requirement for selective microbiota-mediated mechanisms was retained. Beneficial health effects must be documented for a substance to be considered a prebiotic. The consensus definition applies also to prebiotics for use by animals, in which microbiota-focused strategies to maintain health and prevent disease is as relevant as for humans. Ultimately, the goal of this Consensus Statement is to engender appropriate use of the term ‘prebiotic’ by relevant stakeholders so that consistency and clarity can be achieved in research reports, product marketing and regulatory oversight of the category. To this end, we have reviewed several aspects of prebiotic science including its development, health benefits and legislation