Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations

An increasing number of household and firm surveys ask for subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing microdata from extensive consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations

Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations

Several recent surveys ask for a person’s subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing large scale consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations

Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations

Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. From a theoretical viewpoint, the measure can be motivated as the entropy function of a strictly proper scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations

Estudio comparativo del desempeño de los elementos SHELL63 y BEAM4 ANSYS 5.5 para el modelamiento de paneles navales

A continuación se realiza un estudio de dos tipos de elementos para modelar un panel naval y elegir que elemento es el más acertado para modelar por el método de elementos finitos (MEF). Se realiza un análisis de convergencia donde las variables son los esfuerzos transversales y numero de elementos, este diagrama darán el numero de elementos adecuado para realizar un estudio con mayor precisión del panel, para luego comparar los valores obtenidos computacional mente con los obtenidos teóricamente y definir el error que presenta el modelo para los distinto s elementos empleados.Incluye bibliografí

Tránsitos Perceptuales del Espacio Vivido en la Casa del Caribe Colombiano - Caso Ciudad de Sincelejo

The spaces in which people carry out their daily lives constitute a reflection of their own identity, granting these intimate values that act reciprocally in the configuration of a regional housing identity. The topophilic relationship of people with spaces is recognized during the evolutionary process of habitat construction. Housing units of various types/topologies are explored, using the method of associated qualifiers, to determine the perception of the habitat. The results show the spatio-functional description of the representative chronotopes of these units, developing categories that help define identity traits.Los espacios en los que las personas desarrollan su cotidianidad se constituyen en un reflejo de su propia identidad, otorgándole a estos valores íntimos que actúan de manera recíproca en la configuración de una identidad habitacional regional. Se reconoce la relación topofílica de las personas con los espacios, durante el proceso evolutivo de construcción del hábitat. Se exploran unidades habitacionales de diversas tipo/topologías, utilizando el método de los calificativos asociados, para determinar la percepción del hábitat. Los resultados muestran la descripción espacio-funcional de los cronotopos representativos de estas unidades, en desarrollo de categorías que ayudan a definir rasgos de identidad.Os espaços em que as pessoas realizam o seu quotidiano constituem um reflexo da sua própria identidade, concedendo estes valores íntimos que actuam reciprocamente na configuração de uma identidade habitacional regional. A relação topofílica das pessoas com os espaços é reconhecida durante o processo evolutivo de construção do habitat. São exploradas unidades habitacionais de diversas tipologias/topologias, utilizando o método dos qualificadores associados, para determinar a percepção do habitat. Os resultados mostram a descrição espaço-funcional dos cronotopos representativos dessas unidades, desenvolvendo categorias que ajudam a definir traços de identidade

Nefrotoxicidad por uso recreacional de drogas psicoactivas. Reporte de un caso

El uso recreacional de drogas psicoactivas es una prácticageneralizada en población de adultos jóvenes en el mundo. Existe evidencia de que los opioides y la cocaína producen toxicidad renal. La necrosis tubular aguda, rabdomiolisis y la glomerulonefritis focal segmentaria son las presentaciones más comunes. Reportamos un caso de daño renal agudo en un joven después del uso recreacional de alcohol, cocaína y opioides, cuyos hallazgos patológicos son descritos brevemente en la literatura.

Dark halo microphysics and massive black hole scaling relations in galaxies

We investigate the black hole (BH) scaling relation in galaxies using a model in which the galaxy halo and central BH are a self-gravitating sphere of dark matter (DM) with an isotropic, adiabatic equation of state. The equipotential where the escape velocity approaches the speed of light defines the horizon of the BH. We find that the BH mass (m•) depends on the DM entropy, when the effective thermal degrees of freedom (F) are specified. Relations between BH and galaxy properties arise naturally, with the BH mass and DM velocity dispersion following m• ∝ σF/2 (for global mean density set by external cosmogony). Imposing observationally derived constraints on F provides insight into the microphysics of DM. Given that DM velocities and stellar velocities are comparable, the empirical correlation between m• and stellar velocity dispersions σ⋆ implies that 7 6 the dense dark envelope surrounding the BH approaches the mean density of the BH itself, while the outer halo can show a nearly uniform kpc-scale core resembling those observed in galaxies

Quantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations

Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing large scale consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.Not Reviewe

Nefrotoxicidad por uso recreacional de drogas psicoactivas. Reporte de un caso

El uso recreacional de drogas psicoactivas es una prácticageneralizada en población de adultos jóvenes en el mundo. Existe evidencia de que los opioides y la cocaína producen toxicidad renal. La necrosis tubular aguda, rabdomiolisis y la glomerulonefritis focal segmentaria son las presentaciones más comunes. Reportamos un caso de daño renal agudo en un joven después del uso recreacional de alcohol, cocaína y opioides, cuyos hallazgos patológicos son descritos brevemente en la literatura.