Analysis of telephone network traffic based on a complex user network

The traffic in telephone networks is analyzed in this paper. Unlike the classical traffic analysis where call blockings are due to the limited channel capacity, we consider here a more realistic cause for call blockings which is due to the way in which users are networked in a real-life human society. Furthermore, two kinds of user network, namely, the fully-connected user network and the scale-free network, are employed to model the way in which telephone users are connected. We show that the blocking probability is generally higher in the case of the scale-free user network, and that the carried traffic intensity is practically limited not only by the network capacity but also by the property of the user network.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, accepted for Physica

Impact of tailored falls prevention education for older adults at hospital discharge on engagement in falls prevention strategies postdischarge: Protocol for a process evaluation

Introduction: Older adults recently discharged from hospital have greater incidence of adverse events, functional decline, falls and subsequent readmission. Providing education to hospitalised patients on how to prevent falls at home could reduce postdischarge falls. There has been limited research investigating how older adults respond to tailored falls prevention education provided at hospital discharge. The aim of this study is to evaluate how providing tailored falls prevention education to older patients at the point of, and immediately after hospital discharge in addition to usual care, affects engagement in falls prevention strategies in the 6-months postdischarge period, including their capability and motivation to engage in falls prevention strategies. Methods and analyses: This prospective observational cohort study is a process evaluation of a randomized controlled trial, using an embedded mixed-method design. Participants (n=390) who have been enrolled in the trial are over the age of 60 years, scoring greater than 7/10 on the Abbreviated Mental Test Score. Participants are being discharged from hospital rehabilitation wards in Perth, Western Australia, and followed up for 6 months postdischarge. Primary outcome measures for the process evaluation are engagement in falls prevention strategies, including exercise, home modifications and receiving assistance with activities of daily living. Secondary outcomes will measure capability, motivation and opportunity to engage in falls prevention strategies, based on the constructs of the Capability Opportunity Motivation Behaviour system. Quantitative data are collected at baseline, then at 6 months postdischarge using structured phone interviews. Qualitative data are collected from a purposive sample of the cohort, using semistructured in-depth phone interviews. Quantitative data will be analysed using regression modelling and qualitative data will be analysed using interpretive phenomenological analysis. Ethics and dissemination: Results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at conferences worldwide. This study is approved by hospital and university Human Research Ethics Committees

Tailored Education Increased Capability and Motivation for Fall Prevention in Older People After Hospitalization

Recently hospitalized older people are at risk of falls and face barriers to undertaking fall prevention strategies after they return home from hospital. The authors examined the effects of tailored education delivered by physiotherapists on the knowledge (capability) and the motivation of older people to engage in fall prevention after hospital discharge. Utilizing data gathered from a recent trial, data was analyzed from 390 people who were 60 years and over without impaired cognition (>7/10 abbreviated mental test score) and discharged from three Australian hospitals. Motivation and capability were measured at baseline in the hospital and at 6-months after hospital discharge by blinded assistants using structured surveys. Bivariate analysis using generalized linear modeling explored the impact of education on the capability and motivation. Engagement in fall prevention strategies was entered as an independent variable during analysis to determine associations with capability and motivation. The education significantly improved capability [−0.4, 95% CI (−0.7, −0.2), p < 0.01] and motivation [−0.8, 95% CI (−1.1, −0.5), p < 0.01] compared with social-control at the time of hospital discharge. In contrast, social-control participants gained capability and motivation over the 6-months, and no significant differences were found between groups in capability [0.001, 95% CI (−0.2, 0.2), p = 0.9] and motivation [−0.01, 95% CI (−0.3, 0.3), p = 0.9] at follow-up. Tailored fall prevention education is recommended around hospital discharge. Participants still needed to overcome barriers to falls prevention engagement post hospitalization. Thus, tailored education along with direct clinical services such as physiotherapy and social supports is warranted for older people to avoid falls and regain function following hospitalization

Reducing falls in older adults recently discharged from hospital: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Older adults are known to have increased falls rates and functional decline following hospital discharge, with substantial economic healthcare costs. This systematic review aimed to synthesise the evidence for effective falls prevention interventions in older adults recently discharged from hospital. Methods: Literature searches of six databases of quantitative studies conducted from 1990 to June 2017, reporting falls outcomes of falls prevention interventions for community-dwelling older adults discharged from hospital were included. Study quality was assessed using a standardised JBI critical appraisal tool (MAStARI) and data pooled using Rev-Man Review Manager® Results: Sixteen studies (total sample size N= 3,290, from eight countries, mean age 77) comprising 12 interventions met inclusion criteria. We found home hazard modification interventions delivered to those with a previous falls history (1 study), was effective in reducing the number of falls (RR 0.63, 95%CI 0.43, 0.93, Low GRADE evidence). Home exercise interventions (3 studies) significantly increased the proportion of fallers (OR 1.74, 95%CI 1.17, 2.60, Moderate GRADE evidence), and did not significantly reduce falls rate (RR 1.27, 95%CI 0.99, 1.62, Very Low GRADE evidence) or falls injury rate (RR1.16, 95%CI, 0.83,1.63, Low GRADE evidence). Nutritional supplementation for malnourished older adults (1 study) significantly reduced the proportion of fallers (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.19, 0.86, Low GRADE evidence). Conclusion: The recommended falls prevention interventions for older adults recently discharged from hospital are to provide home hazard minimisation particularly if they have a recent previous falls history and consider nutritional supplementation if they are malnourished

How do professions globalize? Lessons from the Global South in US medical education

This article explores the professional construction of the space of Global Health. I argue that the growth of Global Health as a field of practice does not merely indicate an intensification of North-South intervention. It is also a professional project of reimporting lessons from the South to countries in the North. I focus on the emerging didactic regime for Global Health in US medical education and the deterritorialized "global" lessons that students are taught in poor countries. By rescaling these lessons to precarious settings at home, the space of Global Health is reterritorialized as a Global Medical South stretching into the United States, reinforcing the perception that health is not a right but a privilege. The analysis is based on a content analysis of university websites and didactic handbooks and a sample of sixty-four articles evaluating the education effects of study abroad experiences. It reveals an emerging canon of Global Health virtues and the construction of domestic scales for Global Health practices, which are based on ethnic and socioeconomic categories. This analysis of professional projects as spatial projects sheds new light on the geography of Global Health and of professional globalization more generally

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Non-specific psychological distress, smoking status and smoking cessation: United States National Health Interview Survey 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is well established that smoking rates in people with common mental disorders such as anxiety or depressive disorders are much higher than in people without mental disorders. It is less clear whether people with these mental disorders want to quit smoking, attempt to quit smoking or successfully quit smoking at the same rate as people without such disorders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from the 2005 Cancer Control Supplement to the United States National Health Interview Survey to explore the relationship between psychological distress as measured using the K6 scale and smoking cessation, by comparing current smokers who had tried unsuccessfully to quit in the previous 12 months to people able to quit for at least 7 to 24 months prior to the survey. We also used data from the 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing to examine the relationship between psychological distress (K6) scores and duration of mental illness.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority of people with high K6 psychological distress scores also meet diagnostic criteria for mental disorders, and over 90% of these people had first onset of mental disorder more than 2 years prior to the survey. We found that people with high levels of non-specific psychological distress were more likely to be current smokers. They were as likely as people with low levels of psychological distress to report wanting to quit smoking, trying to quit smoking, and to have used smoking cessation aids. However, they were significantly less likely to have quit smoking.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The strong association between K6 psychological distress scores and mental disorders of long duration suggests that the K6 measure is a useful proxy for ongoing mental health problems. As people with anxiety and depressive disorders make up a large proportion of adult smokers in the US, attention to the role of these disorders in smoking behaviours may be a useful area of further investigation for tobacco control.</p

Gene Expression Profiling in Cells with Enhanced γ-Secretase Activity

BACKGROUND: Processing by gamma-secretase of many type-I membrane protein substrates triggers signaling cascades by releasing intracellular domains (ICDs) that, following nuclear translocation, modulate the transcription of different genes regulating a diverse array of cellular and biological processes. Because the list of gamma-secretase substrates is growing quickly and this enzyme is a cancer and Alzheimer's disease therapeutic target, the mapping of gamma-secretase activity susceptible gene transcription is important for sharpening our view of specific affected genes, molecular functions and biological pathways. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To identify genes and molecular functions transcriptionally affected by gamma-secretase activity, the cellular transcriptomes of Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells with enhanced and inhibited gamma-secretase activity were analyzed and compared by cDNA microarray. The functional clustering by FatiGO of the 1,981 identified genes revealed over- and under-represented groups with multiple activities and functions. Single genes with the most pronounced transcriptional susceptibility to gamma-secretase activity were evaluated by real-time PCR. Among the 21 validated genes, the strikingly decreased transcription of PTPRG and AMN1 and increased transcription of UPP1 potentially support data on cell cycle disturbances relevant to cancer, stem cell and neurodegenerative diseases' research. The mapping of interactions of proteins encoded by the validated genes exclusively relied on evidence-based data and revealed broad effects on Wnt pathway members, including WNT3A and DVL3. Intriguingly, the transcription of TERA, a gene of unknown function, is affected by gamma-secretase activity and was significantly altered in the analyzed human Alzheimer's disease brain cortices. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Investigating the effects of gamma-secretase activity on gene transcription has revealed several affected clusters of molecular functions and, more specifically, 21 genes that hold significant potential for a better understanding of the biology of gamma-secretase and its roles in cancer and Alzheimer's disease pathology

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust