Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru

Study region Santa River basin, Peru. Study focus In the Andes of Peru, climate change and socio-economic development are expected to jeopardize future water availability. However, little is known about the interplay of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors and related processes driving water resource changes. We developed an integrated model that analyzes different trajectories of water availability including hydro-climatic (water supply) and socio-economic (water demand) variables with consistent multi-descriptor future scenarios until 2050. New hydrological insights for the region At the lower-basin outflow of Condorcerro, mean annual water availability is projected to increase by 10% ± 12% by 2050. This gain is mainly driven by an increase in annual precipitation amounts of about 14% (RCP2.6) and 18% (RCP8.5), respectively, which was computed using a global climate multi-model ensemble. In contrast, mean dry-season water availability is projected to substantially decrease by 33% and 36% ( ± 24%) by 2050, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This decline is driven by a combination of diminishing glacier discharge and increasing water demand both of which adopt a major role in the absence of considerable precipitation inputs. These seasonal differences highlight the need to adequately consider spatiotemporal scales within multi-scenario water balance models to support local decision-making. Our results elucidate the need for improvements in water management and infrastructure to counteract diminishing dry-season water availability and to reduce future risks of water scarcity

Temporal stability in the genetic structure of Sarcoptes scabiei under the host-taxon law: empirical evidences from wildlife-derived Sarcoptes mite in Asturias, Spain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Implicitly, parasite molecular studies assume temporal genetic stability. In this study we tested, for the first time to our knowledge, the extent of changes in genetic diversity and structure of <it>Sarcoptes </it>mite populations from Pyrenean chamois (<it>Rupicapra pyrenaica</it>) in Asturias (Spain), using one multiplex of 9 microsatellite markers and <it>Sarcoptes </it>samples from sympatric Pyrenean chamois, red deer (<it>Cervus elaphus</it>), roe deer (<it>Capreolus capreolus</it>) and red fox (<it>Vulpes vulpes</it>).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis of an 11-years interval period found little change in the genetic diversity (allelic diversity, and observed and expected heterozygosity). The temporal stability in the genetic diversity was confirmed by population structure analysis, which was not significantly variable over time. Population structure analysis revealed temporal stability in the genetic diversity of <it>Sarcoptes </it>mite under the host-taxon law (herbivore derived- and carnivore derived-<it>Sarcoptes </it>mite) among the sympatric wild animals from Asturias.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The confirmation of parasite temporal genetic stability is of vital interest to allow generalizations to be made, which have further implications regarding the genetic structure, epidemiology and monitoring protocols of the ubiquitous <it>Sarcoptes </it>mite. This could eventually be applied to other parasite species.</p

Adaptive Immunity against Leishmania Nucleoside Hydrolase Maps Its C-Terminal Domain as the Target of the CD4+ T Cell–Driven Protective Response

Nucleoside hydrolases (NHs) show homology among parasite protozoa, fungi and bacteria. They are vital protagonists in the establishment of early infection and, therefore, are excellent candidates for the pathogen recognition by adaptive immune responses. Immune protection against NHs would prevent disease at the early infection of several pathogens. We have identified the domain of the NH of L. donovani (NH36) responsible for its immunogenicity and protective efficacy against murine visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Using recombinant generated peptides covering the whole NH36 sequence and saponin we demonstrate that protection against L. chagasi is related to its C-terminal domain (amino-acids 199–314) and is mediated mainly by a CD4+ T cell driven response with a lower contribution of CD8+ T cells. Immunization with this peptide exceeds in 36.73±12.33% the protective response induced by the cognate NH36 protein. Increases in IgM, IgG2a, IgG1 and IgG2b antibodies, CD4+ T cell proportions, IFN-γ secretion, ratios of IFN-γ/IL-10 producing CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and percents of antibody binding inhibition by synthetic predicted epitopes were detected in F3 vaccinated mice. The increases in DTH and in ratios of TNFα/IL-10 CD4+ producing cells were however the strong correlates of protection which was confirmed by in vivo depletion with monoclonal antibodies, algorithm predicted CD4 and CD8 epitopes and a pronounced decrease in parasite load (90.5–88.23%; p = 0.011) that was long-lasting. No decrease in parasite load was detected after vaccination with the N-domain of NH36, in spite of the induction of IFN-γ/IL-10 expression by CD4+ T cells after challenge. Both peptides reduced the size of footpad lesions, but only the C-domain reduced the parasite load of mice challenged with L. amazonensis. The identification of the target of the immune response to NH36 represents a basis for the rationale development of a bivalent vaccine against leishmaniasis and for multivalent vaccines against NHs-dependent pathogens

SYMBA: An end-to-end VLBI synthetic data generation pipeline. Simulating Event Horizon Telescope observations of M 87

Context. Realistic synthetic observations of theoretical source models are essential for our understanding of real observational data. In using synthetic data, one can verify the extent to which source parameters can be recovered and evaluate how various data corruption effects can be calibrated. These studies are the most important when proposing observations of new sources, in the characterization of the capabilities of new or upgraded instruments, and when verifying model-based theoretical predictions in a direct comparison with observational data. Aims. We present the SYnthetic Measurement creator for long Baseline Arrays (SYMBA), a novel synthetic data generation pipeline for Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations. SYMBA takes into account several realistic atmospheric, instrumental, and calibration effects. Methods. We used SYMBA to create synthetic observations for the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a millimetre VLBI array, which has recently captured the first image of a black hole shadow. After testing SYMBA with simple source and corruption models, we study the importance of including all corruption and calibration effects, compared to the addition of thermal noise only. Using synthetic data based on two example general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) model images of M 87, we performed case studies to assess the image quality that can be obtained with the current and future EHT array for different weather conditions. Results. Our synthetic observations show that the effects of atmospheric and instrumental corruptions on the measured visibilities are significant. Despite these effects, we demonstrate how the overall structure of our GRMHD source models can be recovered robustly with the EHT2017 array after performing calibration steps, which include fringe fitting, a priori amplitude and network calibration, and self-calibration. With the planned addition of new stations to the EHT array in the coming years, images could be reconstructed with higher angular resolution and dynamic range. In our case study, these improvements allowed for a distinction between a thermal and a non-thermal GRMHD model based on salient features in reconstructed images

Multimessenger Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Coincidence Alerts using HAWC and IceCube sub-threshold Data

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) and IceCube observatories, through the Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network (AMON) framework, have developed a multimessenger joint search for extragalactic astrophysical sources. This analysis looks for sources that emit both cosmic neutrinos and gamma rays that are produced in photo-hadronic or hadronic interactions. The AMON system is running continuously, receiving sub-threshold data (i.e. data that is not suited on its own to do astrophysical searches) from HAWC and IceCube, and combining them in real-time. We present here the analysis algorithm, as well as results from archival data collected between June 2015 and August 2018, with a total live-time of 3.0 years. During this period we found two coincident events that have a false alarm rate (FAR) of $<1$ coincidence per year, consistent with the background expectations. The real-time implementation of the analysis in the AMON system began on November 20th, 2019, and issues alerts to the community through the Gamma-ray Coordinates Network with a FAR threshold of $<4$ coincidences per year.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 3 table

Targeted plant improvement through genome editing: from laboratory to field

This review illustrates how far we have come since the emergence of GE technologies and how they could be applied to obtain superior and sustainable crop production. The main challenges of today's agriculture are maintaining and raising productivity, reducing its negative impact on the environment, and adapting to climate change. Efficient plant breeding can generate elite varieties that will rapidly replace obsolete ones and address ongoing challenges in an efficient and sustainable manner. Site-specific genome editing in plants is a rapidly evolving field with tangible results. The technology is equipped with a powerful toolbox of molecular scissors to cut DNA at a pre-determined site with different efficiencies for designing an approach that best suits the objectives of each plant breeding strategy. Genome editing (GE) not only revolutionizes plant biology, but provides the means to solve challenges related to plant architecture, food security, nutrient content, adaptation to the environment, resistance to diseases and production of plant-based materials. This review illustrates how far we have come since the emergence of these technologies and how these technologies could be applied to obtain superior, safe and sustainable crop production. Synergies of genome editing with other technological platforms that are gaining significance in plants lead to an exciting new, post-genomic era for plant research and production. In previous months, we have seen what global changes might arise from one new virus, reminding us of what drastic effects such events could have on food production. This demonstrates how important science, technology, and tools are to meet the current time and the future. Plant GE can make a real difference to future sustainable food production to the benefit of both mankind and our environment.European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) CA18111info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Evaluation of iron status in European adolescents through biochemical iron indicators: the HELENA Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To assess the iron status among European adolescents through selected biochemical parameters in a cross-sectional study performed in 10 European cities. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Iron status was defined utilising biochemical indicators. Iron depletion was defined as low serum ferritin (SF8.5 mg/l) plus iron depletion. Iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) was defined as ID with haemoglobin (Hb) below the WHO cutoff for age and sex: 12.0 g/dl for girls and for boys aged 12.5-14.99 years and 13.0 g/dl for boys aged ≥15 years. Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay was used as analytical method for SF, sTfR and C-reactive protein (CRP). Subjects with indication of inflammation (CRP >5 mg/l) were excluded from the analyses. A total of 940 adolescents aged 12.5-17.49 years (438 boys and 502 girls) were involved. RESULTS: The percentage of iron depletion was 17.6%, significantly higher in girls (21.0%) compared with boys (13.8%). The overall percentage of ID and IDA was 4.7 and 1.3%, respectively, with no significant differences between boys and girls. A correlation was observed between log (SF) and Hb (r = 0.36, P < 0.01), and between log (sTfR) and mean corpuscular haemoglobin (r = -0.30, P < 0.01). Iron body stores were estimated on the basis of log (sTfR/SF). A higher percentage of negative values of body iron was recorded in girls (16.5%) with respect to boys (8.3%), and body iron values tended to increase with age in boys, whereas the values remained stable in girls. CONCLUSIONS: To ensure adequate iron stores, specific attention should be given to girls at European level to ensure that their dietary intake of iron is adequate.status: publishe

Trends in invasive bacterial diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic: analyses of prospective surveillance data from 30 countries and territories in the IRIS Consortium.

BACKGROUND The Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Consortium was established to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus agalactiae. We aimed to analyse the incidence and distribution of these diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the 2 years preceding the pandemic. METHODS For this prospective analysis, laboratories in 30 countries and territories representing five continents submitted surveillance data from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 2, 2022, to private projects within databases in PubMLST. The impact of COVID-19 containment measures on the overall number of cases was analysed, and changes in disease distributions by patient age and serotype or group were examined. Interrupted time-series analyses were done to quantify the impact of pandemic response measures and their relaxation on disease rates, and autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to estimate effect sizes and forecast counterfactual trends by hemisphere. FINDINGS Overall, 116 841 cases were analysed: 76 481 in 2018-19, before the pandemic, and 40 360 in 2020-21, during the pandemic. During the pandemic there was a significant reduction in the risk of disease caused by S pneumoniae (risk ratio 0·47; 95% CI 0·40-0·55), H influenzae (0·51; 0·40-0·66) and N meningitidis (0·26; 0·21-0·31), while no significant changes were observed for S agalactiae (1·02; 0·75-1·40), which is not transmitted via the respiratory route. No major changes in the distribution of cases were observed when stratified by patient age or serotype or group. An estimated 36 289 (95% prediction interval 17 145-55 434) cases of invasive bacterial disease were averted during the first 2 years of the pandemic among IRIS-participating countries and territories. INTERPRETATION COVID-19 containment measures were associated with a sustained decrease in the incidence of invasive disease caused by S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis during the first 2 years of the pandemic, but cases began to increase in some countries towards the end of 2021 as pandemic restrictions were lifted. These IRIS data provide a better understanding of microbial transmission, will inform vaccine development and implementation, and can contribute to health-care service planning and provision of policies. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Torsten Söderberg Foundation, Stockholm County Council, Swedish Research Council, German Federal Ministry of Health, Robert Koch Institute, Pfizer, Merck, and the Greek National Public Health Organization

Global wealth disparities drive adherence to COVID-safe pathways in head and neck cancer surgery

Peer reviewe

Neuroanatomical heterogeneity and homogeneity in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) demonstrate heterogeneity in clinical profiles and outcome features. However, the extent of neuroanatomical heterogeneity in the CHR-P state is largely undetermined. We aimed to quantify the neuroanatomical heterogeneity in structural magnetic resonance imaging measures of cortical surface area (SA), cortical thickness (CT), subcortical volume (SV), and intracranial volume (ICV) in CHR-P individuals compared with healthy controls (HC), and in relation to subsequent transition to a first episode of psychosis. The ENIGMA CHR-P consortium applied a harmonised analysis to neuroimaging data across 29 international sites, including 1579 CHR-P individuals and 1243 HC, offering the largest pooled CHR-P neuroimaging dataset to date. Regional heterogeneity was indexed with the Variability Ratio (VR) and Coefficient of Variation (CV) ratio applied at the group level. Personalised estimates of heterogeneity of SA, CT and SV brain profiles were indexed with the novel Person-Based Similarity Index (PBSI), with two complementary applications. First, to assess the extent of within-diagnosis similarity or divergence of neuroanatomical profiles between individuals. Second, using a normative modelling approach, to assess the ‘normativeness’ of neuroanatomical profiles in individuals at CHR-P. CHR-P individuals demonstrated no greater regional heterogeneity after applying FDR corrections. However, PBSI scores indicated significantly greater neuroanatomical divergence in global SA, CT and SV profiles in CHR-P individuals compared with HC. Normative PBSI analysis identified 11 CHR-P individuals (0.70%) with marked deviation (>1.5 SD) in SA, 118 (7.47%) in CT and 161 (10.20%) in SV. Psychosis transition was not significantly associated with any measure of heterogeneity. Overall, our examination of neuroanatomical heterogeneity within the CHR-P state indicated greater divergence in neuroanatomical profiles at an individual level, irrespective of psychosis conversion. Further large-scale investigations are required of those who demonstrate marked deviation.publishedVersio