Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) Project: Experiment Protocol and Model Descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model-observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols, and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are: 1. Evaluate the current chemistry-climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations; and 2. Understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 is a free-running ensemble experiment from 2022 to 2031. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally-generated aerosol while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. We take model results from the previously developed Tonga-MIP to fulfill Experiment 3, which focuses on the initial dispersion and microphysical evolution of aerosol and water plumes. Experiment 4 is designed to understand the climate impact on the mesosphere from 2022–2027, for which the experiment design is the same as Experiment 1 but for models that resolve the upper stratosphere and mesosphere

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.HORIZON EUROPE Framework ProgrammeH2020 European Research CouncilResearch Councils UKEngineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilPeer Reviewe

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open data, open science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11064126, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. This is below the 2023 observed record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 54 ± 5.4 GtCO2e per year over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here

Stratospheric aerosol - Observations, processes, and impact on climate

Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfate matter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes

Intercomparison of polar ozone profiles by IASI/MetOp sounder with 2010 Concordiasi ozonesonde observations

Validation of ozone profiles measured from a nadir looking satellite instrument over Antarctica is a challenging task due to differences in their vertical sensitivity with ozonesonde measurements. In this paper, ozone observations provided by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instrument onboard the polar-orbiting satellite MetOp are compared with ozone profiles collected between August and October 2010 at McMurdo Station, Antarctica, during the Concordiasi measurement campaign. The main objective of the campaign was the satellite data validation. With this aim 20 zero-pressure sounding balloons carrying ozonesondes were launched during this period when the MetOp satellite was passing above McMurdo. This makes the dataset relevant for comparison, especially because the balloons covered the entire altitude range of IASI profiles. The validation methodology and the collocation criteria vary according to the availability of global positioning system auxiliary data with each electro-chemical cell ozonesonde observation. The relative mean difference is shown to depend on the vertical range investigated. The analysis shows a good agreement in the troposphere (below 10 km) and middle stratosphere (25-40 km), where the differences are lower than 10%. However a significant positive bias of about 10-26% is estimated in the lower stratosphere at 10-25 km, depending on altitude. The positive bias in the 10-25 km range is consistent with previously reported studies comparing in situ data with thermal infrared satellite measurements. This study allows for a better characterization of IASI-retrieved ozone over the polar region during ozone depletion/recovery processes. © Author(s) 2013.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Prevalence and significance of DDX41 gene variants in the general population.

Germ line variants in the DDX41 gene have been linked to myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) development. However, the risks associated with different variants remain unknown, as do the basis of their leukemogenic properties, impact on steady-state hematopoiesis, and links to other cancers. Here, we investigate the frequency and significance of DDX41 variants in 454 792 United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) participants and identify 452 unique nonsynonymous DNA variants in 3538 (1/129) individuals. Many were novel, and the prevalence of most varied markedly by ancestry. Among the 1059 individuals with germ line pathogenic variants (DDX41-GPV) 34 developed MDS/AML (odds ratio, 12.3 vs noncarriers). Of these, 7 of 218 had start-lost, 22 of 584 had truncating, and 5 of 257 had missense (odds ratios: 12.9, 15.1, and 7.5, respectively). Using multivariate logistic regression, we found significant associations of DDX41-GPV with MDS, AML, and family history of leukemia but not lymphoma, myeloproliferative neoplasms, or other cancers. We also report that DDX41-GPV carriers do not have an increased prevalence of clonal hematopoiesis (CH). In fact, CH was significantly more common before sporadic vs DDX41-mutant MDS/AML, revealing distinct evolutionary paths. Furthermore, somatic mutation rates did not differ between sporadic and DDX41-mutant AML genomes, ruling out genomic instability as a driver of the latter. Finally, we found that higher mean red cell volume (MCV) and somatic DDX41 mutations in blood DNA identify DDX41-GPV carriers at increased MDS/AML risk. Collectively, our findings give new insights into the prevalence and cognate risks associated with DDX41 variants, as well as the clonal evolution and early detection of DDX41-mutant MDS/AML