Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Preferred orientation of rolling-induced ε\varepsilon martensite in an Fe-Mn-Si alloy

Preferred orientation of $\varepsilon$ martensite induced by cold rolling is studied in an Fe-27Mn-3.5Si alloy. Since the flat rolling is essentially a plane strain condition, cold rolling is applied to induced the martensite. The alloy consists of stacking faults and thermal $\varepsilon$ martensite with some variants in $\gamma$ matrix. By cold rolling, $\varepsilon$ martensite plates are preferably induced with a single variant, producing a preferred orientation. Rolling-induced $\varepsilon$ martensite is observed to possess a preferred orientation of (1013)$\varepsilon$ [3032]$\varepsilon$. It is revealed that the [3032]$\varepsilon$ and normal direction of (1013)$\varepsilon$ experience the largest contraction and expansion, respectively, in $\gamma\to\varepsilon$ shear deformation when c/a is almost (8/3)$^{1/2}$

Effect of L1o → Ni5Al3 Reordering on Properties of Martensitic Ni-Al Alloys

L1o → Ni5Al3 reordering and related properties in powder Ni-Al alloys consisting 64-65 at.%Ni have been examined by X-ray diffraction and dilatometric and damping capacity measurements. The Ni5Al3 formation occurs in the L1o matrix by simple reordering of atoms with a continuous increase of the c/a ratio. As a result, degradation of shape memory effect and decrease of damping capacity are observed after short-time annealing at 200-300°C

Effects of Alloying Elements on Martensitic Transformation Behavior and Damping Capacity in Fe-17Mn Alloy

Effect of carbon and Ti on γ ←→ εmartensitic transformation behavior and damping capacity has been investigated in an Fe-17Mn alloy. The suppressive force of carbon against γ ←→ ε transformation increases linearly with an increase in carbon content, lowering Ms temperature and volume fraction of ε martensite. Carbon deteriorates damping capacity by reducing the area of γ/ε interfaces and by decreasing the mobility of the interfaces operated as damping source. The reduction in the mobility of the interfaces is accelerated when carbon-containing alloy is aged at high temperatures. The effect of Ti on the damping capacity is found to be beneficial in carbon-containing alloy, because the Ti contributes to depletion of carbon solute by the formation of TiC

Effects of Carbon Content and Cold Working on Damping Capacity and Mechanical Property of Fe-17wt.%Mn Martensitic Alloy

Effect of carbon content on damping capacity of Fe-17%Mn alloy is investigated by varying the carbon content from 0.02wt% to 0.28wt%. And cold rolling is conducted to examine its influence on damping capacity and mechanical properties in an Fe-17%Mn-0.02%C alloy. With the increase in carbon content, damping capacity decreases due to the area reduction of γ/ε boundaries and their mobility. Cold rolling up to 10% is found to improve strength as well as damping capacity in an Fe-17%Mn-0.02%C alloy without significant decrease in elongation. Fe-17%Mn-X%C alloy system containing carbon below about 0.1wt%, exhibiting superior mechanical properties and good damping capacities at high strain amplitudes, can preferably be applied as structural materials subjected to high amplitude vibration

Transformation Behavior and its Effect on Damping Capacity in Fe-Mn Based Alloys

γ→ε transformation behavior in a Fe-21Mn alloy with different grain size and a Fe-32Mn-6Si alloy with various degrees of cold rolling is investigated and correlated with damping capacity. Effect of microstructure on damping capacity is discussed on the assumption that the capacity is proportional to volume swept by γ/ε boundaries

Formation of texture and anisotropy of shape memory effect in Fe-Mn-Si-Co-Cr alloy

This study is aimed at investigating the anisotropy of shape memory effect in Fe-based alloy. An Fe-15Mn-3Si-4Co-5Cr alloy is cold rolled by 92%, and annealed at 630°C for 45min. The alloy undergoes γ → ε → α transformation by cold rolling and γ is restored with a major preferred orientation of (110) γ [001] γ by the annealing. The specimens for shape memory effect and tensile test are taken 0, 45, 70, 80 and 90 degs to the rolling direction. The specimen taken along 70 degs to the rolling direction exhibits the best shape memory effect. An analysis of the (110) γ [001] γ texture reveals that the specimen experiences the deformation stress along [22l] γ which is the most expandable direction in the γ → ε transformation. In tensile test, the best SME specimen shows the lowest yield stress, indicating that the transformation take place most easily since the deformation is applied to the preferential direction to the transformation

Anisotropy of Several Properties in a Polycrystalline Fe-Mn-Si Based Shape Memory Alloy

The tensile properties, γ ←→ ε transformation and shape recovery have been related to the orientation of tensile axes i.e., along rolling direction(specimen 'A') and toward 45° to the rolling direction(specimen 'B') in a cold-rolled and then annealed Fe-15Mn-10Co-5Cr-3Si alloy. It is revealed that the deformation modes of the specimens 'A' and 'B' with respect to tensile axes are not the same ; tensile deformation of the specimen 'A' is mainly achieved by slip, while that of the specimen 'B' is mainly governed by γ → ε transformation. The yield strengths of the specimens 'A' and 'B' are 569MPa and 745MPa, respectively. The reverse transformation temperature of the specimen 'A' is much higher than that of the specimen 'B', and the shape recovery of the specimen 'B' is much larger than that of the specimen 'A'. The differences between those properties with tensile axes are discussed in association with texture developed in a cold-rolled and then annealed Fe-15Mn-10Co-5Cr-3Si alloy