Long term implications of low fertility in Kerala

In recent years, Kerala has made remarkable progress in its demographic transition. The State has achieved below replacement level of fertility two decades ahead of the all-India target year of 2011 and India is likely to achieve the replacement level only by 2021. The TFR declined from a high level of 5.6 in 1951-61 to about 1.7 in 1993, a level which is very much below the replacement level of 2.05. The State's IMR has touched a low level of 13 in 1993, a level comparable to that of some of the developed countries of the world. The population growth rate has declined to about 1 per cent per annum in 1995 from a high level of 2.3 per cent per year during 1961-71. Thus Kerala's demographic trends in the first half of the 21st century will be dramatically different from that of the second half of the 20th century. Total population of the State is expected to increase by 170 percent in the second half of the present century (from 11,723,000 in 1951 to 31,553,000 in 2001), the growth (if any) in the next half a century will be very negligible. The crude death rate declined from about 20 to about 6 in the last half a century, but it is likely to increase from 6 to 13 in the next century. The crude birth rate decreased from 40 to about 16 in the last half a century, but it is likely to remain more or less stable in the next half a century. While Kerala experienced varying degrees of net out-migration and net emigration in the last half a century, migration trend in the next half a century is somewhat uncertain. It will depend more on socio-economic developments than on demographic trends. The socioeconomic implications of the reversal of the demographic trends will be far reaching: (a) To begin with, the pressure on schools and colleges will be a thing of the past, giving ample opportunities for the educational system to concentrate on the quality of education rather than on quantity. (b) This is also true of hospitals and health personnel catering to the health needs of the children. It will be easier to bring about the needed improvement in the quality of their services. (c) In the transitional period, parity between the number of girls and boys in their respective marriage ages will be maintained. But this is a temporary respite. (d) Other things being equal on the economic front, unemployment among the young working age population will be greatly reduced. The educated young workers might be able to pick and choose the job they want. But this is not the case with older workers. The number of older working population would almost double in a short period of 20 years between 2001 and 2021 (e) In the last half a century the major socioeconomic problems were related to the schooling, maintenance of health and nutrition and finding employment for the youngsters. In the next half a century, the major socio-economic problems would be finding gainful employment for the older working age population, maintenance of the health and nutrition of the elderly, and providing them with means of subsistence through social security and pension, etc.Kerala, fertility, mortality, migration, projections, aging, labour force, social security, pension, marriage

Long term implications of low fertility in Kerala

In recent years, Kerala has made remarkable progress in its demographic transition. The State has achieved below replacement level of fertility two decades ahead of the all-India target year of 2011 and India is likely to achieve the replacement level only by 2021. The TFR declined from a high level of 5.6 in 1951-61 to about 1.7 in 1993, a level which is very much below the replacement level of 2.05. The State’s IMR has touched a low level of 13 in 1993, a level comparable to that of some of the developed countries of the world. The population growth rate has declined to about 1 per cent per annum in 1995 from a high level of 2.3 per cent per year during 1961-71. Thus Kerala’s demographic trends in the first half of the 21st century will be dramatically different from that of the second half of the 20th century. Total population of the State is expected to increase by 170 percent in the second half of the present century (from 11,723,000 in 1951 to 31,553,000 in 2001), the growth (if any) in the next half a century will be very negligible. The crude death rate declined from about 20 to about 6 in the last half a century, but it is likely to increase from 6 to 13 in the next century. The crude birth rate decreased from 40 to about 16 in the last half a century, but it is likely to remain more or less stable in the next half a century. While Kerala experienced varying degrees of net out-migration and net emigration in the last half a century, migration trend in the next half a century is somewhat uncertain. It will depend more on socioeconomic developments than on demographic trends. The socioeconomic implications of the reversal of the demographic trends will be far reaching: (a) To begin with, the pressure on schools and colleges will be a thing of the past, giving ample opportunities for the educational system to concentrate on the quality of education rather than on quantity. (b) This is also true of hospitals and health personnel catering to the health needs of the children. It will be easier to bring about the needed improvement in the quality of their services. (c) In the transitional period, parity between the number of girls and boys in their respective marriage ages will be maintained. But this is a temporary respite. (d) Other things being equal on the economic front, unemployment among the young working age population will be greatly reduced. The educated young workers might be able to pick and choose the job they want. But this is not the case with older workers. The number of older working population would almost double in a short period of 20 years between 2001 and 2021 (e) In the last half a century the major socioeconomic problems were related to the schooling, maintenance of health and nutrition and finding employment for the youngsters. In the next half a century, the major socio-economic problems would be finding gainful employment for the older working age population, maintenance of the health and nutrition of the elderly, and providing them with means of subsistence through social security and pension, etc. JEL Classification : J10, J11, J13, J14 Key words: Kerala, fertility, mortality, migration, projections, aging, labour force, social security, pension, marriage

Socio-economic and demographic consequences of migration in Kerala

Migration has been the single most dynamic factor in the otherwise dreary development scenario of Kerala in the last quarter of the past century. Migration has contributed more to poverty alleviation and reduction in unemployment in Kerala than any other factor. As a result of migration, the proportion of population below the poverty line has declined by 12 per cent. The number of unemployed persons - estimated to be only about 13 lakhs in 1998 as against 37 lakhs reported by the Employment Exchanges - has come down by more than 30 per cent. Migration has caused nearly a million married women in Kerala to live away from their husbands. Most of these women, the so-called "Gulf wives" had experienced extreme loneliness to begin with; but they got increasingly burdened with added family responsibilities with the handling of which they had little acquaintance so long as their husbands were with them. But over a period of time, and with a helping hand from abroad over the ISD, most of them came out of their feeling of desolateness. Their sense of autonomy, independent status, management skills and experience in dealing with the world outside their homes - all developed the hard way - would remain with them for the rest of their lives for the benefit of their families and the society at large. In the longrun, the transformation of these one million women would have contributed more to the development of Kerala society than all the temporary euphoria created by foreign remittances and the acquisition of modern gadgetry. Kerala is becoming too much dependant on migration for employment, sustenance, housing, household amenities, institution building, and many other developmental activities. The inherent danger of such dependence is that migration could stop abruptly as was shown by the Kuwait war experience of 1990 with disastrous repercussions for the state. Understanding migration trends and instituting policies to maintain the flow of migration at an even keel is more important today than at any time in the past. Kerala workers seem to be losing out in the international competition for jobs in the Gulf market. Corrective policies are urgently needed to raise their competitive edge over workers in the competing countries in the South and the South East Asia. Like any other industry, migration needs periodic technological up-gradation of the workers. Otherwise, there is the danger that Kerala might lose the Gulf market forever. The core of the problem is the Kerala worker's inability to compete with expatriates from other South and South Asian countries. The solution naturally lies in equipping our workers with better general education and job training. This study suggests a two-fold approach - one with a long-term perspective and the other with a short-term perspective. In the short-run, the need is to improve the job skills of the prospective emigrant workers. This is better achieved through ad hoc training programmes focussed on the job market in the Gulf countries. In the long-run, the need is to restructure the whole educational system in the state taking into consideration the future demand for workers not only in Kerala but also in the potential destination countries all over the world, including the USA and other developed countries. Kerala emigrants need not always be construction workers in the Gulf countries; they could as well be software engineers in the developed countries. JEL Classification : J16, J21, J23 Key words : Kerala, emigration, return migration, remittances, gender, demography, elderl

Gulf migration study : employment, wages and working conditions of Kerala emigrants in the United Arab Emirates

This is the fourth in a series of Working Papers published by the CDS on Kerala migration. Unlike the other three, this one is financed by the Kerala Government and the data were collected in UAE. The objectives of this Working Paper are to: - document changes in the labour demand for different categories of emigrant workers - enumerate the emigration policies - examine employment and working conditions, wage levels and related problems of the Kerala emigrants - understand the education and training requirements of future emigrants to UAE

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

The Syrian Christians of Kerala: Demographic and Socioeconomic Transition in the Twentieth Century

The twentieth century has witnessed a process of significant transition of the Syrian Christian community in Kerala in terms of its demographic and socio-economic status. In this paper, the transition of the demographic structure is discussed in terms of size, composition, geographic distribution and growth rates and the underlying factors of transition comprising fertility, mortality, and migration. [Working Paper No. 322]twentieth century, Syrian Christian, Kerala, demographic, socio-economic status, size, composition, geographic distribution, fertility, mortality,

The Syrian christians of Kerala: Demographic and socioeconomic transition in the twentieth century

The twentieth century has witnessed a process of significant transition of the Syrian Christian community in Kerala in terms of its demographic and socio-economic status. In this paper, the transition of the demographic structure is discussed in terms of size, composition, geographic distribution and growth rates and the underlying factors of transition comprising fertility, mortality, and migration. Against this background, an attempt is made to present a set of projections of the population of the Syrian Christian community in Kerala till the year 2031. Discussion is made in a comparative setting; the corresponding changes that have come about in the other communities - Hindus, Muslims, and Latin Christians - are also examined.

Unemployment in Kerala at the turn of the century: Insights from CDS Gulf migration studies

This Working Paper is about the unemployment situation in Kerala. It is based on the findings of the two Gulf Migration Studies, Kerala Migration Study (KMS) and South Asia Migration Study (SMS), conducted by the authors at the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, during the last five years. The paper gives measures of unemployment rates in the state in 1998 and 2003, examines their variation by geographic regions, such as districts and taluks, by demographic characteristics such as age, sex and marital status, by sociocultural variables such as education, religion and community, and by economic indicators of households such as remittances received, quality of housing, possession of consumer durables, etc. On the basis of the trends and differentials in the profile of the unemployed, the study provides a few insights, some quite unorthodox, on the factors associated with the increase in the unemployment rate in the state during 1998-2003. As far as possible, all the assertions and conclusions are supported by factual data from the two surveys.International Migration, Remittances, Unemployment, Replacement Migration, Kerala