To What Extent do Investors in a Financial Market Anchor Their Judgments? Evidence from the Hong Kong Horserace Betting Market

This paper explores the use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic by decision makers in a financial market; in particular, the degree to which horserace bettors anchor their probability judgments on the advantage afforded by a horse‟s barrier-position. The results suggest that under certain conditions bettors anchor on barrier-position information revealed at previous race meetings, but not on the most recent race outcomes. In fact, bettors appear to use the most recent race outcomes appropriately when forming probability estimates; but only when the results are in line with their mental model of barrier-position advantage. Bettors with varying levels of expertise are shown to be subject to anchoring, although greater expertise is generally associated with less anchoring. The paper concludes that the manner and degree of anchoring in real world environ.

ADAPTING LEAST-SQUARE SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION MODELS TO FORECAST THE OUTCOME OF HORSERACES

This paper introduces an improved approach for forecasting the outcome of horseraces. Building upon previous literature, a state-of-the-art modelling paradigm is developed which integrates least-square support vector regression and conditional logit procedures to predict horses’ winning probabilities. In order to adapt the least-square support vector regression model to this task, some free parameters have to be determined within a model selection step. Traditionally, this is accomplished by assessing candidate settings in terms of mean-squared error between estimated and actual finishing positions. This paper proposes an augmented approach to organise model selection for horserace forecasting using the concept of ranking borrowed from internet search engine evaluation. In particular, it is shown that the performance of forecasting models can be improved significantly if parameter settings are chosen on the basis of their normalised discounted cumulative gain (i.e. their ability to accurately rank the first few finishers of a race), rather than according to general purpose performance indicators which weight the ability to predict the rank order finish position of all horses equally

Stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) sclerochronology of Callovian (Middle Jurassic) bivalves (Gryphaea (Bilobissa) dilobotes) and belemnites (Cylindroteuthis puzosiana) from the Peterborough Member of the Oxford Clay Formation (Cambridgeshire, England): Evidence of palaeoclimate, water depth and belemnite behaviour

Incremental δ18O and δ13C signals were obtained from three well-preserved specimens of Cylindroteuthis puzosiana and from three well-preserved specimens of Gryphaea (Bilobissa) dilobotes from the Peterborough Member of the Oxford Clay Formation (Cambridgeshire, England). Through-ontogeny (sclerochronological) δ18O data from G. (B.) dilobotes appear to faithfully record seasonal temperature variations in benthic Callovian waters of the study area, which range from c. 14 °C to c. 17 °C (arithmetic mean temperature c. 15 °C). Water depth is estimated to have been in the region of c. 50 m, based upon comparisons between these data, previously published non-incremental sea surface δ18O values, and a modern analogue situation. Productivity in Callovian waters was comparable with that in modern seas, based upon δ13C data from G. (B.)dilobotes, with 13C depletion occurring during warmer periods, possibly related to an interaction between plankton blooms and intra-annual variations in mixing across a thermocline. Incremental δ18O data from C.puzosiana provide temperature minima of c.11 °C for all specimens but with maxima varying between c.14 °C and c.16 °C for different individuals (arithmetic mean values c. 13 °C). Temperatures for late ontogeny, when the C. puzosiana individuals must have been living close to the study site and hence the analysed specimens of G. (B.) dilobotes, are closely comparable to those indicated by the latter. However, for significant portions of ontogeny C. puzosiana experienced temperatures between c. 2 °C and c. 3 °C cooler than the winter minimum as recorded by co-occurring G. (B.) dilobotes. Comparisons with modern seas suggest that descent to a depth of c. 1000 m would be necessary to explain such cool minimum temperatures. This can be discounted due to the lack of deep waters locally and due to estimates of the depth tolerance of belemnites. The most likely cause of cool δ18O signals from C. puzosiana is a cosmopolitan lifestyle including migration to more northerly latitudes. Mean δ13C values from C. puzosiana are comparable with those from G.(B.)dilobotes. However, the incrementally acquired data are highly variable and probably influenced by metabolic effects.The probable identification of migratory behaviour in C. puzosiana calls into question the reliability of some belemnite species as place-specific palaeoenvironmental archives and highlights the benefits of adopting a sclerochronological approach

Inverse magnetic catalysis in field theory and gauge-gravity duality

We investigate the surface of the chiral phase transition in the three-dimensional parameter space of temperature, baryon chemical potential and magnetic field in two different approaches, the field-theoretical Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model and the holographic Sakai-Sugimoto model. The latter is a top-down approach to a gravity dual of QCD with an asymptotically large number of colors and becomes, in a certain limit, dual to an NJL-like model. Our main observation is that, at nonzero chemical potential, a magnetic field can restore chiral symmetry, in apparent contrast to the phenomenon of magnetic catalysis. This "inverse magnetic catalysis" occurs in the Sakai-Sugimoto model and, for sufficiently large coupling, in the NJL model and is related to the physics of the lowest Landau level. While in most parts our discussion is a pedagogical review of previously published results, we include new analytical results for the NJL approach and a thorough comparison of inverse magnetic catalysis in the two approaches.Comment: 37 pages, 11 figures, to appear in Lect. Notes Phys. "Strongly interacting matter in magnetic fields" (Springer), edited by D. Kharzeev, K. Landsteiner, A. Schmitt, H.-U. Ye

Does transparency imply efficiency? The case of the European soccer betting market

We discover mispricing in an apparently transparent market - the European soccer betting market. Efficiency differences between countries are accounted for by variations in league competitiveness. We conclude that barriers to efficiency (e.g., risk evaluation problems) may remain in transparent markets

Dynamics of Excited Electrons in Copper and Ferromagnetic Transition Metals: Theory and Experiment

Both theoretical and experimental results for the dynamics of photoexcited electrons at surfaces of Cu and the ferromagnetic transition metals Fe, Co, and Ni are presented. A model for the dynamics of excited electrons is developed, which is based on the Boltzmann equation and includes effects of photoexcitation, electron-electron scattering, secondary electrons (cascade and Auger electrons), and transport of excited carriers out of the detection region. From this we determine the time-resolved two-photon photoemission (TR-2PPE). Thus a direct comparison of calculated relaxation times with experimental results by means of TR-2PPE becomes possible. The comparison indicates that the magnitudes of the spin-averaged relaxation time \tau and of the ratio \tau_\uparrow/\tau_\downarrow of majority and minority relaxation times for the different ferromagnetic transition metals result not only from density-of-states effects, but also from different Coulomb matrix elements M. Taking M_Fe > M_Cu > M_Ni = M_Co we get reasonable agreement with experiments.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures, added a figure and an appendix, updated reference

Edge reconstruction in the fractional quantum Hall regime

The interplay of electron-electron interaction and confining potential can lead to the reconstruction of fractional quantum Hall edges. We have performed exact diagonalization studies on microscopic models of fractional quantum Hall liquids, in finite size systems with disk geometry, and found numerical evidence of edge reconstruction under rather general conditions. In the present work we have taken into account effects like layer thickness and Landau level mixing, which are found to be of quantitative importance in edge physics. Due to edge reconstruction, additional nonchiral edge modes arise for both incompressible and compressible states. These additional modes couple to electromagnetic fields and thus can be detected in microwave conductivity measurements. They are also expected to affect the exponent of electron Green's function, which has been measured in tunneling experiments. We have studied in this work the electric dipole spectral function that is directly related to the microwave conductivity measurement. Our results are consistent with the enhanced microwave conductivity observed in experiments performed on samples with an array of antidots at low temperatures, and its suppression at higher temperatures. We also discuss the effects of the edge reconstruction on the single electron spectral function at the edge.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figure

Answering a Basic Objection to Bang/Crunch Holography

The current cosmic acceleration does not imply that our Universe is basically de Sitter-like: in the first part of this work we argue that, by introducing matter into *anti-de Sitter* spacetime in a natural way, one may be able to account for the acceleration just as well. However, this leads to a Big Crunch, and the Euclidean versions of Bang/Crunch cosmologies have [apparently] disconnected conformal boundaries. As Maldacena and Maoz have recently stressed, this seems to contradict the holographic principle. In the second part we argue that this "double boundary problem" is a matter not of geometry but rather of how one chooses a conformal compactification: if one chooses to compactify in an unorthodox way, then the appearance of disconnectedness can be regarded as a *coordinate effect*. With the kind of matter we have introduced here, namely a Euclidean axion, the underlying compact Euclidean manifold has an unexpectedly non-trivial topology: it is in fact one of the 75 possible underlying manifolds of flat compact four-dimensional Euclidean spaces.Comment: 29 pages, 3 figures, added references and comparison with "cyclic" cosmology, JHEP versio

Theory of inelastic lifetimes of low-energy electrons in metals

Electron dynamics in the bulk and at the surface of solid materials are well known to play a key role in a variety of physical and chemical phenomena. In this article we describe the main aspects of the interaction of low-energy electrons with solids, and report extensive calculations of inelastic lifetimes of both low-energy electrons in bulk materials and image-potential states at metal surfaces. New calculations of inelastic lifetimes in a homogeneous electron gas are presented, by using various well-known representations of the electronic response of the medium. Band-structure calculations, which have been recently carried out by the authors and collaborators, are reviewed, and future work is addressed.Comment: 28 pages, 18 figures, to appear in Chem. Phy

Influence of the rheological behaviour of the lubricant on the appearance of pitting in elastohydrodynamic eegime

This paper analyses the influence of lubricant behaviour on the appearance of pitting. It attempts to study the effect of viscosity?pressure relation, compressibility, film thickness?roughness relation and friction coefficient on pitting failure of the contacting elements.To explain these effects, we first deal with the influence of the oil on the lubrication of the contact using elastohydrodynamic theory and secondly two multiaxial fatigue criteria are used, Crossland criterion and Dang Van criterion, to evaluate the influence of the rheology on the appearance of pitting. Finally, different applications are presented together with a discussion on the results obtained